低速太阳风的分类

对1970—1980年1AU附近太阳风的观测资料所进行的分析表明,60％的冕旒相关流和40％的CME相关云的流速都不大于350km/s;80％的流速不大于350km/s的低速风起源于冕旒,且除冕旒和CMEs外,看来还存在别的低速风日冕源区.有关冷风的分析表明,近80％的冷风的流速不大于350km/s,80％的冷风起源于冕旒;也有一小部分冷风既非起源于冕旒,也不起源于CMEs.低速风的11年变化显示,在太阳活动各位相,冕旒总是低速风的主要日冕源区.但是,极大位相时的冕旒宽度很可能大于极小和下降位相.     

集成奇异谱分析和自回归滑动平均预测日本近海海平面变化

本文从日本沿岸选取了28个验潮站及联测的GPS站,利用奇异谱分析（Singular Spectrum Analysis,SSA）和SSA+自回归滑动平均（Auto Regression Moving Average,ARMA）方法预测了2014—2018年的近海海平面变化和地壳垂直变化.并用同时段的验潮及GPS的实际测量值进行验证,结果显示,SSA+ARMA预测的相对海平面精度为0.0357~0.0607 m,地壳垂直运动的精度为0.0049~0.0077 m,绝对海平面的精度为0.0433~0.0683 m,且三者SSA+ARMA的预测结果均优于只用SSA预测的结果.在此基础上本文利用SSA+ARMA预测了日本沿岸2019—2023年的近海绝对海平面变化,结果显示,2019—2023年的平均海面高较往年（2014—2018）升高0.0353 m,2003—2023年绝对海平面的变化率为0.0039 m·a^-1,预测结果较为理想.

     

基于高斯曲线拟合-FFT方法的南海风场反演

海面风场是海洋学的基本参量,获取海面风场对了解海洋的物理过程以及海洋与大气之间的相互作用至关重要。宽阔的海域面积及复杂的海面状况通常使南海海面上的风场信息很难被及时获取。ENVISAT ASAR是一种全天候全天时监测海面的微波雷达传感器,可实时获取海面风场数据。本文基于已有ASAR数据对南海海面风场进行反演实验,首先将结合高斯曲线拟合的FFT风向反演方法应用于南海风向反演,并参考Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform （CCMP）风场数据去除180o方向模糊获得海面风向。然后,将高斯曲线拟合-FFT风向与传统的峰值-FFT风向进行对比,最后将准确率较高的高斯曲线拟合-FFT风向分别输入CMOD4模型和CMOD5模型获得海面风速大小。实验结果与CCMP参考数据的比较结果表明,在风条纹不明显的情况下,利用结合高斯曲线的FFT风向反演方法和CMOD4模型风速反演方法可有效地进行南海海面风场反演。该成果对利用SAR数据实时获取南海大面积海面风场信息,尤其是观测点缺乏海域的风场信息,具有重要的指导意义。     

两种海浪模式对一次台风浪过程的模拟分析

以CCMP（Cross—Calibrated,Multi—Platfoml）风场为驱动场,分别驱动目前国际先进的第3代海浪模式ww3（WAVEWATCH—III）、SWAN（Simulating WAves Nearshore）,对2010年9月发生在东中国海的台风“圆规”所致的台风浪进行数值模拟,就台风浪的特征进行分析,并对比分析两个海浪模式的模拟效果。结果表明：1）以CCMP风场分别驱动WW3、SWAN海浪模式,可以较好地模拟发生在东中国海的台风浪,风向与波向保持了大体一致,波高与风速的分布特征保持了很好的一致性;2）综合相关系数、偏差、均方根误差、平均绝对误差来看,两个模式模拟的有效波高（SWH—Significant Wdve Height）都具有较高精度,SWAN模拟的SWH略低于观测值,WW3模拟的SWH与观测值更为接近;3）台风浪可给琉球群岛海域带来5m左右的大浪,台风浪进入东海后,波高、风速都有一定程度的增加,当台风沿西北路径穿越朝鲜半岛时,受到半岛地形的巨大影响,风速和波高都明显降低。     

风廓线雷达资料在一次强降水天气过程中的分析应用

针对风廓线雷达资料分辨率高但目前业务应用不广泛的问题,通过对2006年6月29日一次因飑线天气引发的强降水的观测,分析水平风场、垂直气流和大气虚温的变化,以及高低空急流出现的时机并结合地面观测实况,探讨风廓线雷达资料在此类天气过程中的应用.结果表明,水平风场可以清晰地显示高空急流和低空急流出现的时刻和高度,高空急流区和低空急流区不断发展并相互靠近可以预示阵风锋的到来;垂直速度正值突然增大(气流向上为正,向下为负)并迅速变成负值是判断阵风锋过境的一个依据,同时也预示降水即将开始;另外,高空温度递减率的突然加大对降雨的出现也有一定的预示作用.     

The formation of wind curl in the marine atmosphere boundary layer over the East China Sea Kuroshio in spring

Various data are used to investigate the characteristics of the surface wind field and rainfall on the East China Sea Kuroshio (ESK) in March and April, 2011. In March, the wind speed maximum shows over the ESK front (ESKF) in the 10 meter wind field, which agrees with the thermal wind effect. A wind curl center is generated on the warm flank of the ESKF. The winds are much weaker in April, so is the wind curl. A rainband exists over the ESKF in both the months. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for further researches. The winds on the top of the marine atmosphere boundary layer (MABL) indicate that in March, a positive wind curl is generated in the whole MABL over the warm flank of the ESKF. The thermal wind effect forced by the strong SST gradient overlying the background wind leads to strong surface northeasterly winds on the ESKF, and a positive shearing vorticity is created over the warm flank of the ESKF to generate wind curl. In the smoothed sea surface temperature experiment, the presence of the ESKF is responsible for the strong northeast winds in the ESKF, and essential for the distribution of the rainfall centers in March, which confirms the mechanism above. The same simulation is made for April, 2011, and the responses from the MABL become weak. The low background wind speed weakens the effect of the thermal wind, thus no strong Ekman pumping is helpful for precipitation. There is no big difference in rainfall between the control run and the smooth SST run. Decomposition of the wind vector shows that local wind acceleration induced by the thermal wind effect along with the variations in wind direction is responsible for the pronounced wind curl/divergence over the ESKF.     

A method for sea surface wind field retrieval from SAR image mode data

To retrieve wind field from SAR images, the development for surface wind field retrieval from SAR images based on the improvement of new inversion model is present. Geophysical Model Functions(GMFs) have been widely applied for wind field retrieval from SAR images. Among them CMOD4 has a good performance under low and moderate wind conditions. Although CMOD5 is developed recently with a more fundamental basis, it has ambiguity of wind speed and a shape gradient of normalized radar cross section under low wind speed condition. This study proposes a method of wind field retrieval from SAR image by combining CMOD5 and CMOD4 Five VV-polarisation RADARSAT2 SAR images are implemented for validation and the retrieval results by a combination method(CMOD5 and CMOD4) together with CMOD4 GMF are compared with QuikSCAT wind data. The root-mean-square error(RMSE) of wind speed is 0.75 m s-1 with correlation coefficient 0.84 using the combination method and the RMSE of wind speed is 1.01 m s-1 with correlation coefficient 0.72 using CMOD4 GMF alone for those cases. The proposed method can be applied to SAR image for avoiding the internal defect in CMOD5 under low wind speed condition.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY OF SURFACE WIND OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC

A global atmospheric general circulation model (L9R15 AGCMs) forced by COADS SST was integrated from 1945 to 1993. Interannual and interdecadal variability of the simulated surface wind over the tropical Pacific was analyzed and shown to agree vey well with observation. Simulation of surface wind over the central-western equatorial Pacific was more successful than that over the eastern Pacific. Zonal propagating feature of interannual variability of the tropical Pacific wind anomalies and its decadal difference were also simulated successfully. The close agreement between simulation and observation on the existence of obvious interdecadal variability of tropical Pacific surface wind attested to the high simulation capability of AGCM.     

广西山地风能资源开发利用可行性分析——以大容山为例

利用大容山自动观测站2004年8月～2006年7月气象观测资料和容县气象站1958～2006年7月测风资料,对大容山的风能资源各参数进行了详细计算和分析,并结合预选风电场的地形地貌、交通运输、联网条件、环境保护等状况对大容山风能资源开发利用进行了可行性分析评价.结果表明：大容山年平均风速为7.2m/s,年平均风功率密度为390.8W/m^2,其风能资源丰富,且交通运输、联网、工程地质等条件较好,可选择在坡度较小的山头或山腰建设风电场,预选风电场可布置750kW的风机45台,总装机容量约为34MW.     

超声波测风仪设计中几个问题的探讨

通过比较Gill仪器的Winsonic 2D测风仪和螺旋浆式风速风向计05103L的实测效果,分析了超声波测风仪测风的特点.进而分析了几种超声波测风的检测机理、系统组成和设计的注意事项;同时探讨了如何解决超声波测风仪目前使用中存在的一些问题(如:全天候使用、环境影响补偿等).最后讨论了超声波的传输特性和大气中的杂质对风速、风向测量的影响.