Statistical analysis and long-term prediction of seismicity for linear zones

The model of the Poisson point process is too vague for earthquake locations in space and time: earthquakes tend to cluster in middle distances and to repulse in large ones. The Poisson point model with variable density makes it possible to describe the tendency for clustering but does not reveal the periodicity of clusters. The author proposes the point-process model where locations of points are determined not by densities of point distribution, but by densities of interpoint differences distribution. In the model, a latent periodicity is revealed and used for prediction of a point process. In 1983, the point-process model prediction was made for the Kuril Islands for 1983–1987 and two signs of danger in time and location were determined. Then they were confirmed by strong earth-quakes. In 1989, a similar prediction was made for North Armenia. The Spitak earthquake in 1988 is clearly seen from the data of previous earthquakes.     

SHORT COMMUNICATION­­A field experiment of cusp formation on a coarse clastic beach using a suspended video‐camera system

Cusp formation was continuously monitored on a manually flattened, plane section of a coarse clastic, microtidal, pocket beach on the Pacific coast of Japan using a CCD camera suspended in the air. Vertical video pictures enabled the examination of the temporal change in foreshore morphologies and swash pattern. Boulders on the beach face appeared to have triggered the formation of beach cusps, which gradually and successively grew up alongshore. In 2·5 h, two well defined beach cusps had developed with a spacing of 2·2 and 2·5 m, respectively. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical analysis for random temperature fields of embankment in cold regions

The stochastic finite element equations for random temperature are obtained using the first-order per-turbation technique taking into account the random thermal properties and boundary condition, based on heat transfer variational principle. The local average method for 2-D is used to discretize random fields. Then, the random temperature fields of embankment in cold regions are investigated on condi-tion that the thermal properties and boundary condition are taken as random fields, respectively, by using the program, which is written by the methods. The expected value of temperature field and the standard deviation of the temperature field of embankment in cold regions are obtained and analyzed.     

应用农田水量平衡模型估算土壤水渗漏量

建立了一个农田水量平衡模型。并据于模型假设的条件,模拟计算了在冬小麦-夏玉米及冬小麦-裸地条件下历年1m土层土壤水渗漏量。结果表明,土壤水渗漏量与季节内降水量呈正相关,但在不同作物种植制度下有不同的相关关系式。不同水文频率年型下的渗漏量具有明显的差异,湿润年型下比干旱年型下的渗漏量多70～140mm,冬小麦-裸地比冬小麦～夏玉米种植条件下的渗漏量多30～50mm。     

兴文石海世界地质公园SWOT分析和产品营销战略

兴文世界地质公园拥有全国及世界重要意义的"地球特大漏斗"、"中国最大的石海"和"中国最长的游览洞穴"等景观。采用SWOT分析法,对兴文石海世界地质公园的内部优势、劣势和外部机遇、挑战进行分析,提出了适宜的旅游产品营销战略,以改进其旅游产品和客源市场的开发。     

Settlement prediction by spatial-temporal random process using Asaoka's method

A methodology was presented for observation-based settlement prediction with consideration of the spatial correlation structure of soil. The spatial correlation is introduced among the settlement model parameters and the settlements at various points are spatially correlated through these geotechnical parameters, which naturally describe the phenomenon. The method is based on Bayesian estimation by considering both prior information, including spatial correlation and observed settlement, to search for the best estimates of the parameters at any arbitrary points on the ground. Within the Bayesian framework, the optimised selection of auto-correlation distance by Akaike's Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) is also proposed. The application of the proposed approach in consolidation settlement prediction using Asaoka's method is presented in this paper. Several case studies were carried out using simulated settlement data to investigate the performance the proposed approach. It is concluded that the accuracy of the settlement prediction can be improved by taking into account the spatial correlation structure and the proposed approach gives the rational prediction of the settlement at any location at any time with quantified uncertainty.     

下辽河坳陷现代应力场特征

本文通过辽河油田的钻孔崩落资料及小地震震源机制解，推断出辽河坳陷地区现代构造应力场的特征。两种方法得到的结果基本一致，即区域应务场和局部应力场的结果一致，该地区处于走滑断层型应力状态。     

低应变基桩动测资料反演问题多解性与人工拟合的初步探讨

在实际低应变基桩动测资料解释工作中常发生误判,其原因除测试人员素质的主观因素外,客观上存在反演问题多解性亦是重要原因之一。这里从正演理论计算与物理概念上阐明,在一定桩土系统的物性、几何参数与拟合精度条件下,反演问题多解性是客观存在的。并且进一步探讨了进行人工拟合时应遵守的规则,正确运用此规则能尽量避免误判的产生。在此规则指导下,对易发生误判的实测曲线进行人工拟合,进一步说明了反演多解性问题的客观存在。     

Distribution of the crustal magnetic anomaly and geological structure in Xinjiang,China

Based on the high-order crustal magnetic field model NGDC-720-V3, we investigate the distribution of crustal magnetic anomaly, the decay characteristics of the anomaly, and the relationship between the magnetic anomaly and geological structure in Xinjiang, China. Topography of the magnetic layer basement is studied through Curie isothermal surface using the power spectrum method. It is found that south Tarim Basin, Junggar Basin, and Turpan–Hami Basin have strong positive magnetic anomaly, whereas west Kunlun Mountain, Altun Mountain, Tianshan Mountain, and Altai Mountain have weak or negative anomaly. The magnetic anomaly well reflects the regional tectonic structure, i.e., three alternating mountains intervened by two basins. The magnetic anomaly on the ground surface in Tarim Basin is well corresponding to the mafic dykes. The decay of the magnetic anomaly with altitude indicates that Xinjiang is a large massif composed of several magnetic blocks with different sizes in different directions. The Curie surface presents a feature of being shallow under mountains whereas being deep under basins, roughly having an anti-mirror correspondence with the Moho depth.     

Evolution of the velocity field in model potentials

We consider the evolution of the structure of the velocity field formed by the loops of the trajectory in a generalized Hénon-Heiles model potential. Box-shaped orbits alternating with periodic trajectories are shown to dominate at low values of the energy integral. Signatures of shell-and tube-shaped structures appear as the energy increases. Tube-shaped orbits are associated with stable periodic trajectories with small resonance ratios. Zones of stochastic orbits appear at values of the energy integral close to its critical value, which corresponds to the opening of the zero-velocity contour.