A New Strategy for Solving a Class of Constrained Nonlinear Optimization Problems Related to Weather and Climate Predictability

There are three common types of predictability problems in weather and climate, which each involve different constrained nonlinear optimization problems: the lower bound of maximum predictable time, the upper bound of maximum prediction error, and the lower bound of maximum allowable initial error and parameter error. Highly efficient algorithms have been developed to solve the second optimization problem. And this optimization problem can be used in realistic models for weather and climate to study the upper bound of the maximum prediction error. Although a filtering strategy has been adopted to solve the other two problems, direct solutions are very time-consuming even for a very simple model, which therefore limits the applicability of these two predictability problems in realistic models. In this paper, a new strategy is designed to solve these problems, involving the use of the existing highly efficient algorithms for the second predictability problem in particular. Furthermore, a series of comparisons between the older filtering strategy and the new method are performed. It is demonstrated that the new strategy not only outputs the same results as the old one, but is also more computationally efficient. This would suggest that it is possible to study the predictability problems associated with these two nonlinear optimization problems in realistic forecast models of weather or climate.     

滨州沿海蒸发量与海盐产量的关系研究

海盐生产主要依靠自然蒸发,蒸发量预报对海盐生产有重要的指导作用。通过对1993—2007年滨州沿海蒸发量和海盐产量的分析,海盐产量的时间分布特征与净蒸发量基本一致,净蒸发量是影响海盐生产的决定性因素。分析蒸发量与气象要素之间的关系,分月建立了逐步回归方程,经检验可作为蒸发量的一种客观预报方法。     

一个半线性耦合抛物型方程组爆破解的速率估计

考虑一个方程和非线性边界条件耦合的半线性抛物型方程组,运用Scaling方法、Green函数、Schauder估计等方法,研究该方程组解的爆破速率,并给出非线性反应项和吸收项对爆破速率的影响。     

一种裸露土壤湿度反演方法

针对目前土壤湿度反演方法研究较少且缺少实时性的现状,该文提出一种土壤湿度反演方法——最小二乘支持向量机技术。以积分方程模型为正向算法,数值模拟不同雷达参数(频率、入射角及极化)下后向散射系数随土壤含水量和地表粗糙度的变化情况。经过数据敏感性分析,选取C-波段和X-波段、小入射角下的同极化后向散射系数作为支持向量回归的训练样本信息;经过适当的训练,利用支持向量回归技术对土壤含水量进行了反演研究;并考虑通过多频率、多极化、多入射角数据的组合,消除地表粗糙度的影响,提高反演精度。模拟结果表明,该方法反演土壤湿度具有较高的精度和较好的实时性;同时,与人工神经网络方法的结果比较,证明了该方法的有效性,为土壤湿度的反演研究提供了一种方法。     

Winkler地基梁在温度场中受简谐激励的主共振分析

研究W inkler地基梁在温度场中受简谐激励作用的主共振问题。应用弹性理论和Galerk in方法建立W inkler地基梁在温度场中受简谐激励作用的非线性动力方程。应用非线性振动的多尺度法,求得系统主共振的近似解。分析不同参数对主共振响应曲线的影响。     

利用气象要素计算五道梁地区土壤热流量的试验

根据五道梁地区1994—1997年的热流板测量土壤热流值,初步分析了该地区土壤热流随时间的变化特征。利用1994—1996年的月平均资料分别分析了总辐射、地表温度、地表温度和80 cm深度温度差和2 cm、10 cm深度的土壤热流的相关性,并建立了相应的回归方程;利用得到的回归方程对1997年的土壤热流作计算检验,就月平均资料来说,用总辐射和地温差来计算浅层土壤热流结果是比较可靠的。     

考虑多种非线性因素的张力腿平台动力响应

建立了一种考虑多种非线性因素的张力腿平台(TLP)分析模型,其中包括六自由度有限位移,各自由度之间的耦合,瞬时湿表面,瞬时位置,自由表面效应及粘性力等因素引起的非线性。推导出TLP六自由度非线性运动方程。对某典型张力腿平台ISSC TLP进行了时域上的数值计算,求得该平台在规则波作用下的六自由度运动响应。用退化到线性范围的解与已有解进行了对比,吻合良好。数值结果表明,综合考虑非线性因素后响应明显改变,建议在设计TLP平台的时候,考虑非线性因素的影响。     

斜坡平台波浪破碎数值模拟

波浪在斜坡地形上破碎,破波后稳定波高多采用物理模型试验方法进行研究,利用近岸波浪传播变形的抛物型缓坡方程和波能流平衡方程,导出了适用于斜坡上波浪破碎的数值模拟方法。首先根据波能流平衡方程和缓坡方程基本型式分析波浪在破波带内的波能变化和衰减率,推导了波浪传播模型中波能衰减因子和破波能量流衰减因子之间的关系;其次,利用陡坡地形上的高阶抛物型缓坡方程建立了波浪传播和波浪破碎数学模型;最后,根据物理模型试验实测数据对数值模拟的效果进行验证。数值计算与试验资料比较表明,该模型可以较好地模拟斜坡地形的波浪传播波高变化。     

椭球谐和球谐系数之间一个简单的转换关系

本文推导的椭球谐系数和球谐系数相互之间转换关系的核心思想是在ε~2量级下利用Legendre函数的正交性,从球谐系数求解的积分表示出发,将积分中的椭球坐标变量与球坐标变量相互转换,从而得出椭球谐系数与球谐系数之间的转换关系。本文导出的转换关系有以下优点:①对于第二类Legendre函数的计算采用Laurent级数表示,使计算第二类Legendre函数更为简单;②保留了ε~2量级下,导出的转换关系相比文献[2]的形式更简单,满足物理大地测量边值问题线性化的要求;③顾及了余纬和归化余纬的区别。     

Experimental investigation of tsunami bore impact pressure on a perforated seawall

Catastrophic failures of many tsunami barriers along the affected coasts during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami has prompted extensive investigation into improving and revising design codes for tsunami defence structures. To date, researchers and coastal engineers are investigating to understand the failure mechanisms and to find solutions so that the structures merely remain intact in the extreme event such as tsunami. Thus, the present work is motivated to experimentally study tsunami-induced bore pressures exerted on vertical seawalls; a solid vertical wall and a porous vertical seawall that consisted of a perforated front wall and a solid rear wall. Bores with various heights and velocities were generated by using the dam-break method. A porous seawall with 20% porosity of perforated front wall was used in this study. Bore pressures exerted on the solid rear wall and chamber oscillations that occurred in the experiments were also discussed. The experimental results showed that multiple peak pressures were observed during bore run-up phase in the time series of bore impacts. A predictive equation to estimate the maximum bore pressure on a perforated seawall was developed using multiple regression analysis. The proposed equation was also compared with previous empirical formulas.