A performance‐based framework for adaptive seismic aftershock risk assessment

Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision‐making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first‐excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance‐based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post‐mainshock environment. A time‐dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event‐dependent fragility curves as a function of the first‐mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back‐to‐back nonlinear dynamic analyses. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio‐temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event‐dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first‐excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the number of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L'Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three‐story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first‐excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rayleigh scattering: Volterra equation for the matrix source function

Multiple Rayleigh scattering is examined in a semi-infinite atmosphere with uniformly distributed primary sources of partially polarized radiation. The resulting linear polarization is described by a 2×2 matrix transfer equation. A matrix generalization of Rybicki's two point Q-integral is obtained for this case. It is shown that the Volterra equation for the matrix source function for this problem is a particular case of our Q integral. Applying the Laplace transform to it yields the matrix form of the Ambartsumyan-Chandrasekhar H-equation. The Volterra equation for Sobolev's matrix resolvent function is another simple consequence of this equation. Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 52, No. 2, pp. 301–310 (May 2009).     

非线性时间序列分析在气候中的应用研究进展

非线性时间序列分析方法在气候领域中的应用主要包括如下三个方面:观测数据处理、气候突变和气候预测.综述众多文献的结果表明,有许多学者为非线性时间序列分析方法在气候领域中的应用做了大量的工作,大部分文章用到了非线性时间序列分析方面较新的方法,几乎每种方法都能在某个方面取得一定的成功.但这些大多是个例的研究,得出的结论有待更多的验证和理论上更系统的阐述;可用于业务预测且可提高预报技巧的方法仍需探求.非线性时间序列分析在气候中的应用还是任重而道远.     

关于线性奇异向量和条件非线性最优扰动差别的一个注记

奇异向量(singular vectors,SVs)和条件非线性最优扰动(conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation,CNOP)已广泛应用于研究大气—海洋系统的不稳定性以及与其相关的可预报性、集合预报和目标观测问题研究。本文首先回顾了SVs和CNOP的发展历史,并简单描述了它们的基本原理;然后针对二维正压准地转模式,使用不同的范数组合,分析了第一线性奇异向量(first singular vector,FSV)和CNOP之间的异同。结果表明,当优化时间较短时,度量SVs和CNOP大小的范数不同也将导致FSV和CNOP相差很大,而当度量SVs和CNOP大小的范数相同时,FSV和CNOP之间的差别则主要是由非线性物理过程作用的结果。因此,针对不同的物理问题,应该选取合适的度量范数研究FSV和CNOP以及其所引起的大气或海洋动力学的异同,从而揭示非线性物理过程的影响机理。     

武汉市居民中暑与气象因子的统计特点研究

利用武汉市1994～2006年共13年1464个中暑病例资料和同期逐日气象资料,分别统计逐日中暑人数、日平均中暑人数与气象因子的线性、非线性相关系数,筛选出关键气象因子,建立中暑与多气象因子的非线性模型,制订中暑气象等级标准.结果表明:气温是中暑发生的最关键影响因子,不利气象因子3天或3天以上的累积效应才能导致中暑群发,中暑人数与气象因子呈现非线性关系.建立了日平均中暑人数与前3日平均气温、前3 日平均最小相对湿度的指数模型.将日平均中暑人数划分为5级,并应用该等级标准进行历史样本同代检验和独立样本预报检验,效果较好.     

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF GENETIC ALGORITHM IN CAPTURING CONDITIONAL NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATION WITH PARAMETERIZATION "ON-OFF" SWITCHES INCLUDED BY A MODEL

In the typhoon adaptive observation based on conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), the ‘on-off’ switch caused by moist physical parameterization in prediction models prevents the conventional adjoint method from providing correct gradient during the optimization process. To address this problem, the capture of CNOP, when the on-off switches are included in models, is treated as non-smooth optimization in this study, and the genetic algorithm (GA) is introduced. After detailed algorithm procedur...     

地震波散射非线性反演的不动点理论研究

本文的工作聚焦于构造一种新的地震波散射非线性反演方法.文中将不动点理论引入到地震波散射非线性反演中,并具体的构造出了波的相空间里的一系列关于速度参数具体的压缩映射算子,从而从理论上保证了速度参数不动点的存在性和寻找途径.在此基础上文中还证明了利用此速度参数的不动点和正演所得到的相应的波的值也是波函数本身的不动点,并利用不动点的稳定属性得出此不动点是一个全局最优的点.     

轻钢骨混凝土剪力墙延性的非线性有限元分析

轻钢骨混凝土剪力墙结构作为新型结构在工程界要得到认同并推广使用,必须对该结构的各项性能指标进行系统的试验研究和理论分析。本文应用ADINA有限元软件对轻钢骨混凝土剪力墙延性进行非线性有限元分析,根据不同的高宽比、轴压比、轻钢骨配筋率以及端部配筋模型的计算结果,对该结构体系的延性及其破坏形态进行综合分析,并对轻钢骨混凝土剪力墙轴压比设计提出建议。分析结果表明,高宽比主要控制轻钢骨混凝土剪力墙的破坏形态,轴压比对其结构的延性的影响最为显著,而端部配筋对其延性影响不大。     

高精度国际地球参考框架的研究进展

针对地球动力学等对毫米级国际地球参考框架的需求,介绍了国际地球参考框架的最新研究进展,探讨了现今顾及测站非线性运动的国际地球参考框架的局限性,并在毫米级国际地球参考框架建立的方法和技术改进方面提出了一些见解,对高精度国际地球参考框架的实现具有一定的参考价值。     

基于位移的高桩码头抗震设计动力放大系数计算公式

为更加合理地计算基于位移的高桩码头抗震设计动力放大系数,采用40组地震动记录研究了双向水平地震作用下的码头动力放大系数。研究表明,码头的偏心距和分段长度以及地震波的入射角度对动力放大系数影响较大,地震动强度和近断层效应的影响可近似予以忽略。基于对动力放大系数计算结果的统计分析,提出了相应的计算公式,并确定了动力放大系数的变异系数和概率分布。