Comparison of linear and nonlinear extreme wave statistics

An extremely large (“freak”) wave is a typical though rare phenomenon observed in the sea. Special theories (for example, the modulation instability theory) were developed to explain mechanics and appearance of freak waves as a result of nonlinear wave-wave interactions. In this paper, it is demonstrated that the freak wave appearance can be also explained by superposition of linear modes with the realistic spectrum. The integral probability of trough-to-crest waves is calculated by two methods: the first one is based on the results of the numerical simulation of a wave field evolution performed with one-dimensional and two-dimensional nonlinear models. The second method is based on calculation of the same probability over the ensembles of wave fields constructed as a superposition of linear waves with random phases and the spectrum similar to that used in the nonlinear simulations. It is shown that the integral probabilities for nonlinear and linear cases are of the same order of values     

Modified Joint Distribution of Wave Heights and Periods

The modified versions of the linear theoretical model of Longuet-Higgins (1983) are derived in this work and also compared with the laboratory experiments carried out in MARINTEK. The main feature of modifications is to replace the mean frequency in the formulation with the peak frequency of the wave spectrum. These two alternative forms of joint distributions are checked in three typical random sea states characterized by the initial wave steepness. In order to further explore the properties of these models, the associated marginal distributions of wave heights and wave periods are also researched with the observed statistics and some encouraging results are obtained.     

包含外强迫因子的平潭旬降水量预测

降水量是重要的预报要素之一,长期的降水预测更是能提前预测旱涝分布情况,为国民经济规划提供依据。但目前为止,长期的降水预测仍缺少客观的预报方法。为此,尝试利用非线性预测模型来预测旬降水量,并将该模型应用于福建平潭,分别用与原始数据的差值、与原始数据的相关系数、均方根误差,以及符号显著性检验方法,讨论了包含外强迫因子的平稳性模型与不包含外强迫因子的非线性模型的预测能力,结果表明:包含外强迫因子的模型第一步预测结果与原始观测数据的相关系数为0.73,不包含外强迫因子的模型第一步预测结果与原始观测数据的相关系数则为0.47。无论是从与原始数据的差值及相关系数,还是均方根误差等方面,外强迫模型都是优于平稳性模型,并且通过符号检验方法可看出两种模型存在差异性,这也说明加入外强迫因子可以有效地提高预测技巧,外强迫因子与状态变量在预测中扮演同等重要的角色。     

非线性技术在琼东南盆地深水区陵水17-2气田物源分析和储层预测中的应用

为解决琼东南盆地深水区物源问题,将非线性技术应用于陵水17-2气田物源分析,即利用自然伽马测井曲线的分形维数进行沉积物源方向分析。该技术有效避免了由于风化、搬运、沉积等作用而导致的重矿物组分变化问题,在琼东南盆地深水区黄流组沉积物源分析的应用中取得了良好效果,开辟了深水区物源分析的新思路。同时针对深水区复杂储层特征,为有效预测油气层评价中储层参数如孔隙度、渗透率等,文中基于非线性理论,采用多重分形模型对琼东南盆地深水区黄流组储层参数进行预测,并与实钻结果进行对比,结果表明,采用物性参数-面积(PP-A)分形模型计算得到的范围包含了实钻结果,可以根据该参数预测未知区域储层参数,从而为油气藏评价提供依据;而采用分形滤波技术(S-A)得到的结果更接近实际情况,这说明S-A法能在PP-A法的基础上更深层次地预测储层参数,从而得到更准确的信息。多重分形法可以准确有效地获取无井点处的参数估计值,其精度和预测能力都能达到少打井、少投资和早见效的目的。     

通用EIV平差模型及其加权整体最小二乘估计

以平差基本理论为基础,提出了EIV(errors-in-variables)平差模型的通用形式,涵盖了间接平差、条件平差、附有参数的条件平差及附有限制条件的间接平差等基本EIV模型形式。基于整体最小二乘估计准则,研究了通用EIV模型的加权整体最小二乘算法,并推导了估计结果的近似精度公式。通用EIV模型及其整体最小二乘算法是对EIV模型估计理论的进一步完善,统一的整体最小二乘算法有利于软件的编程实现,有助于推动EIV模型估计理论的应用。     

基于相对电离层延迟模型的单频GPS精密单点定位算法研究

分析了单频GPS精密单点定位的特点,提出了先在卫星间求差,再在相邻历元间求差的单频GPS动态定位数学模型,实现了定位坐标的非线性参数估计求解方法。为了降低电离层延迟残差对单频PPP的影响,研究建立了一种相对电离层延迟模型,并基于神经网络理论,实现了相应的算法,通过计算实例进行了精度分析。     

Characteristics of the response of isothermal atmospheres with nonlinear waves

Abstract

We have studied the behavior of nonlinear waves in isothermal atmospheres using an improved beam scheme method. It is shown that although the magnitude of the mass leakage due to side beams is significant, nevertheless in a motion close to hydrostatic equilibrium it can be suppressed, if special density distributions and/or suitable mesh intervals are selected. We adopt as the parameters for our model of the atmospheres M=1 M[odot], R=50 R[odot] and T=4864 K. The time variation of the physical quantities in each cell is found for several oscillation periods. The critical frequency for the model atmosphere in the case of waves with a weak nonlinearity seems to be consistent with that in the linear theory.     

A nonlinear time series analysis using two‐stage genetic algorithms for streamflow forecasting

Streamflow forecasting is very important for the management of water resources: high accuracy in flow prediction can lead to more effective use of water resources. Hydrological data can be classified as non‐steady and nonlinear, thus this study applied nonlinear time series models to model the changing characteristics of streamflows. Two‐stage genetic algorithms were used to construct nonlinear time series models of 10‐day streamflows of the Wu‐Shi River in Taiwan. Analysis verified that nonlinear time series are superior to traditional linear time series. It is hoped that these results will be useful for further applications. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Properties of nonlinear dynamo waves

Abstract

Dynamo theory offers the most promising explanation of the generation of the sun's magnetic cycle. Mean field electrodynamics has provided the platform for linear and nonlinear models of solar dynamos. However the nonlinearities included arc (necessarily) arbitrarily imposed in these models. This paper conducts a systematic survey of the role of nonlinearities in the dynamo process, by cousidering the behaviour of dynamo waves in the nonlinear regime. It is demonstrated that only by considering realistic nonlinearities that are non-local in space and time can modulation of the basic dynamo wave be achieved. Moreover this modulation is greatest when there is a large separation of timescales provided by including a low magnetic Prandtl number in the equation for the velocity perturbations.     

Shaking table tests and dynamic analyses of masonry wall buildings with frame-shear walls at lower stories

This paper describes shaking table tests of three eight-story building models： all are masonry structures in the upper stories, with or without frame-shear walls of one- or two- stories at the bottom. The test results of damage characteristics and seismic responses are provided and compared. Then, nonlinear response analyses are conducted to examine the reliability of the dynamic analysis. Finally, many nonlinear response analyses are performed and it is concluded that for relatively hard sites under a certain lateral stiffness ratio （i.e., the ratio of the stiffness of the lowest upper masonry story to that of the frame- shear wall story）, the masonry structure with one-story frame-shear wall at the bottom performs better than a structure built entirely of masonry, and a masonry structure with frame-shear wall of two stories performs better than with one-story frame- shear wall. In relatively soft soil conditions, all three structures have similar performane. In addition, some suggestions that could be helpful for design of masonry structures with ground story of frame-shear wall structure in seismic intensity region VII, such as the appropriate lateral stiffness ratio, shear force increase factor of the frame-shear wall story, and permissible maximum height of the building, are proposed.