非线性逐步拟合推估

推导了白噪声条件下的非线性系统的逐步拟合推估和有色噪声条件下的非线性逐步拟合推估的计算公式。非线性系统逐步拟合推估理论第一步是非线性拟合推估,以后各步是非线性滤波。白噪声条件下的非线性系统的逐步拟合推估是有色噪声条件下的非线性逐步拟合推估一个特例。     

基于BP神经网络的GPS导航算法

GPS导航解算中常用最小二乘算法。随着高动态用户需求精度的不断提高，且由于线性化忽略高次项，初始值精度低以及差分后剩余或放大误差的存在。导航解精度很难满足高动态用户的需求。为此，本文基于BP神经网络的非线性逼近性能。给出了基于BP神经网络的GPS导航算法。实测数据计算结果表明该算法能够真实地反映载体运动轨迹，其导航解的精度和可靠性有明显的提高。     

基于能力谱法的SSI体系抗震pushover分析方法

本文首先经过2次等效将土与结构相互作用的多自由度体系等效为单自由度体系,并给出了修正反应谱和等价能力谱的确定方法,进而提出了基于能力谱法考虑土与结构动力相互作用(SSI)效应的结构体系pushover分析方法(SSIPA);然后对3种不同高度考虑SSI效应的结构体系在5条地震动作用下采用本文提出的方法进行了算例分析,将结果与非线性时程分析的结果进行了比较,研究了本方法的适用性和准确性;最后,与建筑抗震设计规范的设计反应谱相结合,对9层考虑SSI效应的钢结构用本文提出的方法进行了弹塑性地震反应分析,根据我国抗震设计规范的规定进行抗震性能的评估验证了本方法的可行性。     

利用非线性方法反演琉球-台湾-吕宋地区的岩石层P波速度结构

根据中国地震台网和ISC台站提供的P波走时资料,使用差异演化全局优化算法(DE算法)和移动窗方法反演了琉球-台湾-吕宋地区岩石层尺度的P波速度结构.在台站和地震分布较为密集的地区,反演窗口为2°×2°,移动步长为1°;在台站和地震较少的地区,反演窗口为4°×4°左右,移动步长为2°.反演结果揭示出琉球-台湾-吕宋地区壳幔结构的横向差异:琉球岛弧西侧受冲绳海槽地幔热扰动的地壳减薄,东侧由于菲律宾海板决的俯冲挤压地壳略有增厚;欧亚大陆与菲律宾海板块的相互碰撞导致台湾地区地壳及岩石层明显增厚;吕宋及菲律宾北部岩石层受岛弧火山下方热流影响较大.结果表明,非线性全局优化算法和移动窗方法能够用于反演较大尺度速度结构的横向变化.     

城市湖泊水华预警模型研究——以北京“六海”为例

采用决策树方法和非线性回归方法建立湖泊水华预警模型。决策树方法预测水华爆发时机,非线性回归方法预测水华爆发强度,并运用信号灯显示方法,划分出水华爆发的预警区间。以北京六海为例,模型结果表明来水水量Q,温度T和总磷浓度是影响“六海”湖泊水华爆发的主要影响因子,选择叶绿素a(Chl-a)<30 μg/L的预警信号为绿色,30 μg/L60 μg/L为红色。当每月来水量Q>79.0万m3或来水量Q<79.0万m3,水温<13.4℃,预警指标为绿色;Q<79.0万m3,水温T>13.4℃,水华预警为黄色;Q<38.7万m3时,T>23.25℃,TP>0.13 mg/L,水华预警为红色。对模型结果分类进行了验证。结果表明:模型对于限制因素发生变化时的水华预测结果更为准确,并且结构简单,输入输出关系明显,结果易于解释。     

Nonlinear magnitude frequency relation and two types of seismicity systems

A nonlinear magnitude frequency equation has been derived in this paper on the assumption that all seismicity systems hold fractal characteristics, and according to the differences of relevant coefficients in the equation, seismicity systems are classified into two types: type I, the whole earthquake activity is controlled by only one great unified system; type II, the whole earthquake activity is controlled by more than one great system. One type of seismicity system may convert to the other type, generally. For example, a type I system will change to a type II system prior to the occurrence of a strong earthquake in North China. This change can be regarded as an index for earthquake trend estimation. In addition, the difference between b value in nonlinear magnitude frequency equation and that in linear equation and the term dΔM related to the coefficients of nonlinear terms obtained in this paper are proved to be a pair of available parameters for medium short term earthquake prediction.     

Geophysical phenomena during an ionospheric modification experiment at Tromsø, Norway

We present an analysis of phenomena observed by HF distance-diagnostic tools located in St. Petersburg combined with multi-instrument observation at Tromsø in the HF modified ionosphere during a magnetospheric substorm. The observed phenomena that occurred during the Tromsø heating experiment in the nightside auroral E_s region of the ionosphere depend on the phase of substorm. The heating excited small-scale field-aligned irregularities in the E region responsible for field-aligned scattering of diagnostic HF waves. The equipment used in the experiment was sensitive to electron density irregularities with wavelengths 12–15 m across the geomagnetic field lines. Analysis of the Doppler measurement data shows the appearance of quasiperiodic variations with a Doppler frequency shift, f_d and periods about 100–120 s during the heating cycle coinciding in time with the first substorm activation and initiation of the upward field-aligned currents. A relationship between wave variations in f_d and magnetic pulsations in the Y-component of the geomagnetic field at Tromsø was detected. The analysis of the magnetic field variations from the IMAGE magnetometer stations shows that ULF waves occurred, not only at Tromsø, but in the adjacent area bounded by geographical latitudes from 70.5° to 68° and longitudes from 16° to 27°. It is suggested that the ULF observed can result from superposition of the natural and heater-induced ULF waves. During the substorm expansion a strong stimulated electromagnetic emission (SEE) at the third harmonic of the downshifted maximum frequency was found. It is believed that SEE is accompanied by excitation of the VLF waves penetrating into magneto-sphere and stimulating the precipitation of the energetic electrons (10–40 keV) of about 1-min duration. This is due to a cyclotron resonant interaction of natural precipitating electrons (1–10 keV) with heater-induced whistler waves in the magnetosphere. It is reasonable to suppose that a new substorm activation, exactly above Tromsø, was closely connected with the heater-induced precipitation of energetic electrons.     

Metallogenic focus-area and superlarge mineral deposits in the bordering zones between China,Russia and Mongolia

Two deep-sea cores in the northwest Pacific have been analysed for sedimentology, mineralogy and environmental magnetism. The results show that after eliminating the interference from volcanism, several proxies such as quartz content, mass susceptibility and anhysteretic magnetic remanence can be used to indicate the eolian deposit from East Asia, and provide information on paleo-atmospheric circulation. A comparison of eolian record in Cure RC10-175 with its oxygen isotopic curve has revealed that the peaks of eolian accumulation occurred at the climatic “optimum” of the Holocene and the last interglaciation, showing the fairly complex nonlinear relationship between continental/pelagic eolian records and the global glacial cycles as well as within the climatic and environmental system. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 9291104)     

Explicit solution of a free boundary problem for a nonlinear absorption model of mixed saturated-unsaturated flow

In wet soils, zones of saturation naturally develop in the vicinity of impermeable strata, surface ponds and subterranean cavities. Hydrology must be then concerned with transient flow through coexisting unsaturated and saturated zones. The models of advancing saturated zones necessarily involve a nonlinear free boundary problem.A closed-form analytic solution is presented for a nonlinear diffusion model under conditions of ponding at the surface. The soil water diffusivity is restricted to the special functional form D(θ) = a/(b − θ)², where θ is the water content field to be determined and a, b are positive constants. The explicit solution depends on a parameter C (determined by the data of the problem), according to two cases: 1 < C < C₁ or C ≥ C₁, where C₁ is a constant which is obtained as the unique solution of an equation. This result complements the study given in P. Broadbridge, Water Resources Research, 1990, 26, 2435–2443, in order to established when the explicit solution is available. The behavior of the bifurcation parameter C₁ as a function of the driving potential is studied with the corresponding limits for small and large values. Moreover, the sorptivity is proven to be continuously differentiable function of the variable C.