Respondent uncertainty and reliability in contingent valuation—A case of the Dalai Lake protected area

This paper focuses on examining the validity and reliability of the contingent valuation method (CVM) in the case of evaluation of ecotourism resources in Dalai Lake Protected Area (DLPA). The CVM is a primary method to evaluate resource value, however, it is subject to criticism because of its bias. Many factors result in CVM evaluation bias, which decreases validity of the method. An important factor is that the CVM assumes that all of the respondents are certain about their answers. In fact, many respondents are not very certain about their answer, therefore, identifying the respondents’ certainty level and exploring a proper method to address it are critical issues. There are three objectives in the present study: first, to identify the uncertainty treatment that can more significantly reduce the hypothetical bias, resulting in a greater closeness to the Willingness to Pay (WTP) in a real setting; second, to identify the determinants of the respondents’ uncertainty; and third, to test the reliability of the respondents’ payment in a real setting and a hypothetical setting by comparison with our study in 2010. One thousand three hundred fifty questionnaires about the DLPA were distributed in face-to-face interviews targeted at Hulunbeier inhabitants, and 1142 questionnaires were collected. The primary main conclusions are summarized as follows. First, the treatment of a real setting reduced the hypothetical bias, increased the WTP accuracy and had better reliability compared with the hypothetical setting. Second, income, impact (the impact of resource development on DLPA) and environmental attitudes had a significant positive influence on the respondents’ certainty in hypothetical and real settings, and income and impact of resource development on DLPA had more significant influences in the real setting than in the hypothetical setting. Third, the computation of the mean WTP showed that the exposure model and the asymmetric uncertainty model YES6 fell within the 95% interval around the point estimated from the real model. The WTP of the SUM (symmetric uncertainty model) was much higher than that of the real model and the hypothetical model.     

象山港海湾生态系统服务价值评估

在以建设海洋牧场为主要策略修复海湾资源与环境的背景下,基于象山港海湾生态系统的基本特征,采用市场价格法、替代成本法、收益转移法等评估方法,构建了海湾生态系统服务价值评估框架,对供给、调节、文化3类服务10项子服务进行货币化评估.结果表明：2010年象山港海湾生态系统服务价值的总量约为27.16×108元/a,单位面积海域生态系统服务的价值约为482.16×104元/（km2·a）;供给服务总体比例较高,占62.83%,体现了维持渔业资源稳定持续供给的重要性;文化服务其次,占25.31%,调节服务比例偏低占11.86%,对控制非点源污染、改善生境条件提出了迫切需求.研究表明评估结果尚属偏低的保守值,有待于进一步完善,并探讨分析建设海洋牧场所起到的积极作用,对持续动态的价值评估与适应性管理提出展望.     

珊瑚礁环境质量变化的价值评估——以涠洲岛为例

以涠洲岛为例,使用非市场价值评估手段对涠洲岛珊瑚礁环境质量进行了非使用价值评估,分析了珊瑚礁环境质量变化所产生的价值损益。2012年在涠洲岛通过模拟3种珊瑚礁环境质量变化,对上岛游客进行调访,游客从影响珊瑚礁环境质量的珊瑚礁覆盖度、珊瑚礁种类以及海水能见度3方面进行考虑,选择最终旅游目的地,共调查300位游客,收集有效数据900份。应用随机效应理论和混合对数模型进行分析和评估,结果显示,当涠洲岛珊瑚礁环境质量提升时,将会人均获益399元/年;当涠洲岛珊瑚礁环境质量略有下降时,将会损失人均561元/年;而当珊瑚礁环境质量下降较大时,人均损失将达到918元/年。同时,本研究的成果可以推广到其它海岛以及陆地进行环境质量变化评估,并且可以评估未来气候变化条件下对珊瑚礁生态系统的价值损失。     

Regulation of the fishing activities in the lagoon of Venice,Italy: Results from a socio-economic study

In the last years, the overall fish industry in the lagoon of Venice has shown a gradual decline. In order to better understand this process, we carry out a socio-economic questionnaire next to the fisherman population. Questionnaire contains significant qualitative and quantitative data that allow us to evaluate the social and the cultural profile of the respondents, including information with respect to the different technological fishing characteristics involved, type and amount of the species harvested as well as the overall productivity of the activity. Furthermore, the questionnaire contains an economic valuation exercise so as to assess in monetary terms the preferences of the fishermen with respect to different alternative policy options that may characterize a future regulation of this economic activity. Estimation results show that fishermen welcome any regulation initiative that is characterized by: (1) banning all fishing activities during the night, (2) allocating fishing concessions areas to each fishermen in a way that minimize the distance between the fishing area and the harbor, and (3) by introducing of a labeling mechanism that certifies the origin of the product. Moreover, the underlying economic valuation mechanism reveals to sensitive to respondent's motivational profile, including the overall trust and confidence that fisherman community places on the current institutional bodies. This result reveals to be of particular significance when attempting the design of an efficient, widely supported regulation of the fishing activity in the lagoon of Venice.     

Valuing the recovery of overexploited fish stocks in the context of existence and option values

The current reduction in commercial fish stocks is a problem of global concern. In response to this situation, administrations around the world are attempting to recover critical stocks by implementing new regulations based on catching restrictions and recovery plans. These restrictions have negative effects on local economies, but species recovery also brings important benefits to society in the long term. Given that the recovery of endangered species also results in considerable non-use economic value, this paper employs contingent valuation techniques to measure individual preferences for different recovery levels. We distinguish primarily between existence and option values linked to various levels of the desired stocks and discuss how these values influence willingness to pay (WTP) estimates. Our results show that recovered stocks for hake and Norwegian lobster increase local welfare, and show that the median household WTP is about 17.73€ for a recovery programme regulated by the European Union.     

基于条件价值评估方法分析中国公众气象服务效益

通过对中国气象局气象效益评估研究组抽样调查得到的175958份问卷数据进行无效问卷剔除后,分析了中国公众对气象服务的满意程度等情况,结果显示约74.3%的公众对气象服务表示满意或较满意。分析表明:全国公众对灾害性天气预报警报的关注度较高,特别是对6～72 h(3 d)的短期天气预报关注度随时间呈上升趋势。调查发现,绝大多数公众(约85.5%)是通过电视媒体来获取气象信息,收视率的最高峰时间为晚上。同时研究了公众对于天气预报的准确度评价与对气象服务的总体满意度评价,结合条件价值评估方法分析得到,当满意度和准确度提高后,公众的支付意愿提高,气象服务的条件价值随着满意度的增加呈近似线性增长趋势。     

澳门噪音污染损害价值的条件估值研究

条件价值评估法（Contingent Valuation Method, CVM）是评估环境污染的经济损失价值的有效方法之一。在CVM研究方法发展的同时,应用范围亦不断扩大。本次调查通过询问人们对环境质量改善的支付意愿(Willingness To Pay, WTP)或忍受环境损失的受偿意愿(Willingness To Accept, WTA),探求澳门噪音污染的损害程度,为政府部门提供决策依据。试验以等距离随机抽样法访问了1 920人,回收样本956个。本研究对研究方法作了一些新的尝试:①对调查的误差进行了统计学分析;②在假设受访者是诚实和有信用的前提下,问卷采用双向投标卡博弈的问卷设计,对受访者同时进行WTA和WTP之引导试验,减少分开调查时可能出现的策略性偏差;③对影响噪音污染意愿调查结果的9项因素进行了统计学分析, 给出了回归方程。研究结果显示, 被访者的月收入、家庭规模和对噪音的关注程度影响其支付意愿和受偿意愿。2003年澳门噪音污染的年经济损失(以WTP方法试验的结果, 得到澳门噪音污染的最小损害)为5.32亿MOP/a(MOP为澳门元, 1美元=8.033MOP); 以WTA方法试验的结果,得到澳门噪音污染的最大损害为10.6亿MOP/a; 如果取CVM之中值,估算出澳门噪音污染的年损害值为7.98亿MOP/a。还对WTP与WTA之间的差异原因进行了讨论。     

山东省国土资源调查研究重点

国土资源是人类生存和发展的基本条件。新一轮国土资源大调查是为国民经济发展和社会服务的综合性调查。山东省开展国土资源调查研究的重点是对基础地质、矿产资源、土地资源、农业地质、地质环境进行系统的调查评价和科学规划 ,为当前国民经济和社会发展提供资源保障和环境保护 ,为可持续发展服务。     

The Irish marine economy and regional development

The economic impact of the marine economy is poorly understood at both national and regional levels in Ireland. A recent paper estimated the national level economic value of the sector for Ireland. This paper presents a follow up analysis of the Irish marine sector at the regional level for 2007. The paper examines the impact of the marine sector in addressing regional disparities in Ireland, and the key marine sectors that drive regional economic performance within the marine sector. The analysis finds that in absolute values Dublin and the South West provide the highest levels of marine GVA; however, as a percentage of regional GVA, the marine sector is more important in the West and South West region. In terms of employment, the West and South-West provide the highest levels of marine employment, and this relationship is maintained when one examines marine employment as a percentage of regional employment. Finally, productivity rates for the sector were highest in the Dublin region. However, productivity in the marine-based sector was higher than the overall regional rate for five of the eight Irish regions.     

基于土地利用数据集的三江源地区生态系统服务价值变化

本文采用千年生态系统评估(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, MA)的理论框架, 结合市场价值法、影子工程法、机会成本法等方法, 以土地利用变化数据、社会经济调查资料为数据源, 对三江源地区1985、1996、2000、2008 年生态系统服务价值进行了评估, 评估的生态系统服务类型包括食物生产、调节气候、净化空气、水源涵养、控制侵蚀、废弃物降解、营养物质循环7 项。结果表明:三江源地区1985、1996、2000、2008 年生态系统服务总价值分别达到602.94 亿元、601.58 亿元、603.60 亿元、669.90 亿元, 整体呈现先降低后增加的趋势。其中, 调节气候、涵养水源的价值占据较大比例。三江源地区的生态系统服务所蕴含的巨大经济价值将对维持该地区生态平衡、保障区域可持续发展发挥重要作用。