边坡稳定分析的神经网络改进模糊点估计法

边坡稳定性分析中,模糊点估计法能同时考虑模糊不确定性和随机不确定性因素。针对传统模糊点估计法计算工作量大的缺点,提出一种神经网络改进模糊点估计法。利用拉丁超立方抽样法和径向基函数神经网络（RBF）建立边坡安全系数的预测模型;对黏聚力和内摩擦角等模糊随机变量取λ截集,并在各截集水平对参数进行组合;利用建立的预测模型对各参数组合的安全系数进行预测;最后由统计矩点估计法计算边坡的可靠度指标。实例分析表明：改进模糊点估计法使用方便、结果可靠,且能通过增加λ截集水平的数目来提高计算精度。对于含有2～4个模糊随机变量的边坡,采用改进模糊点估计法计算可靠度时λ截集水平的数目可近似取25。     

Monitoring polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the Northeast Aegean Sea using Posidonia oceanica seagrass and synthetic passive samplers

The concentrations of 22 polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in Posidonia oceanica seagrass, sediments, and seawater from the Alexandroupolis Gulf in the Aegean Sea, were investigated from 2007 to 2011. Temporal trends of total PAH contents in P. oceanica and sediments were similar. PAH levels in seawater, sediments, and seagrasses generally decreased with increasing distance from Alexandroupolis Port. Leaves and sheaths of P. oceanica had higher PAH levels than roots and rhizomes. P. oceanica accumulates PAHs and has good potential as a bioindicator of spatiotemporal pollution trends. PAH concentrations were also examined using in situ passive seawater sampling and were compared to results of passive sampling in the laboratory using local sediments and seawater. Levels of high molecular weight PAHs assessed using passive samplers confirmed the decreasing gradient of pollution away from Alexandroupolis Port. Passive sampling also proved useful for investigating sources of PAHs in P. oceanica meadows.     

Sampling efficiency in Monte Carlo based uncertainty propagation strategies: Application in seawater intrusion simulations

The implementation of Monte Carlo simulations (MCSs) for the propagation of uncertainty in real-world seawater intrusion (SWI) numerical models often becomes computationally prohibitive due to the large number of deterministic solves needed to achieve an acceptable level of accuracy. Previous studies have mostly relied on parallelization and grid computing to decrease the computational time of MCSs. However, another approach which has received less attention in the literature is to decrease the number of deterministic simulations by using more efficient sampling strategies. Sampling efficiency is a measure of the optimality of a sampling strategy. A more efficient sampling strategy requires fewer simulations and less computational time to reach a certain level of accuracy. The efficiency of a sampling strategy is highly related to its space-filling characteristics.This paper illustrates that the use of optimized Latin hypercube sampling (OLHS) strategies instead of the widely employed simple random sampling (SRS) and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) strategies, can significantly improve sampling efficiency and hence decrease the simulation time of MCSs. Nine OLHS strategies are evaluated including: improved Latin hypercube sampling (IHS); optimum Latin hypercube (OLH) sampling; genetic optimum Latin hypercube (GOLH) sampling; three sampling strategies based on the enhanced stochastic evolutionary (ESE) algorithm namely φ_p-ESE which employs the φ_p space-filling criterion, CLD-ESE which utilizes the centered L₂-discrepancy (CLD) space-filling criterion, and SLD-ESE which uses the star L₂-discrepancy (SLD) space-filling criterion; and three sampling strategies based on the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm namely φ_p-SA which employs the φ_p criterion, CLD-SA which uses the CLD criterion, and SLD-SA which utilizes the SLD criterion. The study applies SRS, LHS and the nine OLHS strategies to MCSs of two synthetic test cases of SWI. The two test cases are the Henry problem and a two-dimensional radial representation of SWI in a circular island. The comparison demonstrates that the CLD-ESE strategy is the most efficient among the evaluated strategies. This paper also demonstrates how the space-filling characteristics of different OLHS designs change with variations in the input arguments of their optimization algorithms.     

祁连山青海云杉(Picea crassifolia)林土壤有机碳与化学性质的相互关系

通过对祁连山大野口流域的青海云杉林大样地进行土壤剖面取样, 分析了样地土壤有机碳与pH值、养分和阳离子交换量等基本化学性质的变化规律及其相互关系. 结果表明: 随土层深度不断增加, 土壤有机碳含量逐渐减小, 在20～30 cm以下趋于稳定(P > 0.05); 土壤pH值不断增大, 仅在0～10 cm与10～20 cm差异显著(P<0.05); 土壤全氮、速效氮、全磷和阳离子交换量不断减小, 全氮含量在30～40 cm以下趋于稳定(P > 0.05), 速效氮含量变化剧烈(P<0.05), 全磷含量差异性不显著(P > 0.05), 阳离子交换量与有机碳含量变化规律相同; 土壤速效磷、全钾和速效钾含量没有明显的变化规律, 速效磷和全钾含量差异性不显著(P > 0.05), 速效钾含量仅在0～10 cm与10～20 cm差异显著(P<0.05). 土壤有机碳与全氮、速效氮、全磷、速效磷、速效钾和阳离子交换量之间呈极显著和显著正相关, 与土壤pH值和全钾含量之间呈极显著和显著负相关. 土壤有机碳与其他基本化学性质的回归方程具有较高精度(R²=0.793), 影响土壤有机碳含量的主要化学因子依次为土壤阳离子交换量、速效钾和全磷含量.     

基于遥感和GIS方法的科尔沁沙地边界划定

基于已有文献,依据科尔沁沙地的形成历史与早期分布,确定科尔沁沙地的核心区;以核心区为基础,采用生态学取样方法,选取与核心区边界相交的16个方向上的交叉点为样本,以Landsat-5 TM影像为主要数据源,采用光谱混合模型、穗帽变换等遥感和GIS方法,通过反复试验设定阈值,提取每个方向的分界特征,据此勾画出科尔沁沙地的分界线。此后,进行实地考察和Google Earth高清影像验证,最终确定科尔沁沙地生态区域的边界。结果表明,科尔沁沙地面积为52 300 ± 360 km²,验证后精度在94%以上。研究结果为科尔沁沙地生态恢复与环境整治提供确切基础范围。     

4DSVD分析误差与样本选取方法和样本容量的关系初探

分析误差与样本选取方法和样本容量的关系是4DSVD同化方法一个亟需研究的重要问题。获得支撑大气模式空间和观测空间吸引子的基向量是4DSVD研究的关键部分,样本的好坏和样本容量的范围是决定4DSVD基向量和分析结果质量的一个重要前提条件。首先利用Lorenz28变量模式,用4DSVD方法做了一些简单三维同化试验,探讨了Lorenz28变量模式的分析误差与样本容量和样本选取方法的关系。数值试验结果表明,对一个具体的模式,有限的样本容量就能够获得较高精度的分析结果;在模式系统和观测系统不变情况下,用一定样本容量得到的支撑模式空间和观测空间的基向量具有很好的稳定性,即一旦获得一组较好的基向量,在观测系统和模式系统不变的情况下,对同化任何时刻的观测适用;分析结果对选取方法没有太大的依赖性,但具体的样本容量要视不同模式和样本选取方法而定。用WRF模式做的4DSVD四维观测系统模拟试验结果表明,若样本选取方法得当,所需要的样本容量要远远小于模式自由度。4DSVD要真正获得较高精度的分析结果,需要的条件是尽可能的在吸引子上取样并选取充足的样本容量;间隔取样可以一定程度上减少计算量。根据数值试验结果提出了4DSVD在实际同化时样本选取的一些初步的方法。     

沈阳春夏季大气冰核浓度的观测研究

为了解沈阳地区大气冰核浓度的时空分布状况,2010年起开始对沈阳地区的大气冰核浓度分布进行观测和研究.地面采用Bigg型混合云室法和滤膜法进行冰核气溶胶的采样测量,高空利用辽宁省人工影响天气办公室租用的人工增雨飞机进行滤膜法采样.采样滤膜的处理都是统一在活化温度-15℃及冰面过饱和度20％、水面过饱和度3％的湿度条件下进行的.根据取得的部分观测资料,给出了沈阳春夏季大气冰核的浓度及冰核温度谱分布参数,分析了冰核浓度在3～6月各月以及在不同天气状况下的分布特征,初步给出了大气冰核浓度的尺度谱分布及其随高度的变化.     

The effect of membrane filtration on estimates of microbial ATP in New Zealand freshwaters

Concentrations of microbial ATP in 15 New Zealand lakes were determined using 2 extraction techniques. ATP was found in both the paniculate (>0.45 μm) and dissolved (<0.45 μm) fractions of the water samples. Higher concentrations of paniculate ATP were obtained when ATP was extracted directly from freshwater samples rather than following pre‐concentration on to membrane filters. Recovery of particulate ATP declined with increasing volumes of sample filtered. The magnitude of the filtration effect varied unpredictably between lakes and within lakes with time. Corrections for the presence of dissolved ATP were necessary before estimates of particulate ATP could be made by the direct extraction technique. Concentrations of dissolved ATP up to 1.2 μg L^‐1 were observed. The direct extraction technique is recommended for more accurate determination of particulate ATP in New Zealand freshwaters.     

Undisturbed Strata Succession Sampling Technology and the Engineering Geological Characteristics of an Atoll in the Southern South China Sea

Coral reef calcareous sediment, a special category of rock-soil material, has representative geological structure and environmental characteristics. It is widely distributed in shallow areas of the tropical ocean; therefore the exploration instruments and technologies for engineering geology studies of coral reef calcareous sediments are very different from those used in land or deep-sea. Obtaining undisturbed cores from the Holocene unconsolidated stratum of coral reefs has been a key problem in the field of marine geology and environment surveying. The authors have designed a novel floating drilling platform equipped with a drilling machine, and successfully achieved undisturbed cores from both reef flats (with water depth 0.5 to 2 m) and a enclosed lagoon (with water depth 2–12 m) of Yongshu Reef (9°32–9°42 N, 112°52–113°04 E), southern South China Sea. Based on the detailed observation on the cores and the analysis from engineering geology, Yongshu Reef was split into reef three engineering geological zones: leading edge, reef flat (including outer reef flat, middle reef flat and inner reef flat) and lagoon. The sediments are classified in the stratum as fine sand, medium sand, coarse sand, gravel and weak-cemented reef limestone.     

基于探地雷达的混凝土无损检测反演成像方法

本文针对水利水电工程中的混凝土构件无损探测问题,提出了一种新的反演成像方法.传统方法主要依赖人工经验观察偏移探测数据,精度无法保证.这种方法以Maxwell方程的TM问题为数学模型,在混凝土的表面放置发射源与接收器,根据探地雷达的接收数据,采用同伦优化方法结合收敛速度较快的阻尼高斯牛顿方法作为反演算法,其成像结果更具定量化和可视性.该成像方法克服了传统雷达剖面图只能近似地反映混凝土中埋藏物及缺陷的深度、大小等缺点,不仅能够探测混凝土内部异物的位置,而且能够比较准确地确定异物的大小及属性.通过计算机模拟以及对实际资料的处理,验证了该反演成像结果直观、可靠、具有一定的应用价值.