基于CMIP5耦合气候模式的1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间研究

利用CMIP5耦合气候模式的模拟结果,分析了不同排放情景下1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现的时间。多模式集合平均结果表明：RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下,全球地表温度将分别在2029年、2028年和2025年达到1.5℃升温阈值;RCP2.6情景下直至21世纪末期都未达到2℃升温阈值,RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下达到2℃升温阈值的时间分别为2048年和2040年。伴随着排放情景的升高,完成从1.5℃升温阈值到2℃升温阈值所需要的时间缩短。区域尺度上,达到同一升温阈值的时间主要表现为陆地比海洋早,且陆地对排放情景差异的敏感性相对较差,而海洋达到升温阈值的时间则随着排放情景的升高而明显提前。中国达到相应升温阈值的时间要早于全球,且以东北和西北地区出现的时间最早。     

ENSO与西北太平洋强TC相关关系年代际变化研究

利用美国联合台风警报中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC),中国气象局(China Meteorological Administration,CMA)上海台风所,日本气象厅(Japan Meteorological Agency,JMA)的台风最佳路径资料以及美国NCAR/NCEP再分析资料等,深入研究厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(El Ni1o-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)与西北太平洋强热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC),即1 min最大风速大于等于114 kn相关关系的变化。结果表明,ENSO与热带西北太平洋(Western North Pacific,WNP)强TC频数之间的相关关系存在明显年代际变化。在1960—1971年期间(前一阶段),强TC年频数与Ni1o3. 4(11月—次年1月平均)相关性较弱;而在1983—2014年期间(后一阶段)两者的相关性则为强的正相关。并且强TC的年频数、生命史以及生成位置在后一阶段El Ni1o和La Ni1a年之间的差异相比前一阶段都有明显的增大。进一步分析发现:热带太平洋海温异常(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)的西移是造成后一阶段Ni1o3. 4指数与强TC年频数相关性提高的关键因素。在后一阶段的El Ni1o(La Ni1a)年,SSTA的西移使得WNP东南象限的相对湿度明显增加(减少),从而有利于(不利于) TC在此象限生成。又因为位于东南象限的TC比较容易发展成强TC,因此导致后一阶段的El Ni1o(La Ni1a)年有更多(更少)的强TC在西北太平洋的东南象限生成。     

Tidal effect on dynamics of pore water nitrate in intertidal sediment of a eutrophic Estuary

To evaluate the effect of the tidal cycle on the pore water nitrate dynamics in intertidal sediment, concentrations of inorganic nitrogen in water and sediment were monitored during tidal cycles in the mud flat of Tama Estuary, Japan. During submergence, nitrate concentration was highest in the overlying water and decreased monotonically with increasing depth in the sediment, suggesting that the primary source of nitrate in the sediment was nitrate transported from the overlying water. Pore water nitrate decreased remarkably during the initial 3–4 hours after the onset of exposure. Thereafter, it was constant or slightly increased until tidal flooding.In situ accumulation of nitrate at the end of exposure, however, did not exceed the nitrate concentrations in the overlying water. The inhibition of nitrate reduction and the stimulation of nitrification would explain the change of nitrate concentration, both consistent with the input of oxygen into the sediment following a 10 mm drop of the water table. In Tama Estuary sediments, the effect of the tidal cycle on the removal of combined nitrogen is rather negative, because high nitrate concentrations in the overlying water canceled the positive effect of nitrate accumulation by nitrification during exposure, while tidal oxygen intrusion have an inhibitory effection sedimentary denitrification.     

Seasonal variations in the origin of lead in snow at Dye 3, Greenland

The isotopic composition and concentration of lead has been measured in fresh and slightly aged snow collected at Dye 3 in southern Greenland during one full year. The lead concentration displayed large variations ranging from 14–3016 pg/g in April (spring) to 3–6 pg/g in September (summer) while the isotopic ratios changed in regular manner during the year. The ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratios were 1.15 from spring to mid-summer snow, and increased in late summer to early autumn, reaching 1.20 in winter. These isotopic data indicate that the lead in the autumn to winter snow originated in North America, while that in spring to mid-summer snow is from Eurasia.     

Geomagnetic paleosecular variation at Hawaii around 3 Ma from a sequence of 107 lava flows at Kaena Point (Oahu)

We have sampled a sequence of 107 lava flows in the Waianae series on Oahu, Hawaii, in two separate stretches. The first (51 flows) at Kaena Point extends from sea level to an altitude of 190 m, and the second (56 flows) follows the Satellite Tracking Station road from 218 m to 360 m above sea level. Thermal and af demagnetization yield very similar results, and reveal only normal polarities. K/Ar dating at five different horizons combined with the paleomagnetic results indicate that the sequence was emplaced entirely in the normal polarity interval between the Upper Mammoth and the Lower Kaena polarity transitions (3.22–3.11 Ma). Some of the flows are serially correlated. Filtering does not, however, drastically affect the final results. Inclinations are shallower than those expected from a centered dipole field. Although large (13°), the inclination anomaly is consistent with results from other sites at the same latitude. The scatter of the VGPs about the geographic pole is consistent with available data from other regions at similar latitudes. The scatter of the directions is also consistent with the predictions of recent statistical models of paleosecular variation. Therefore, these results do not support the hypothesis of a Pacific dipole window.     

江淮异常梅雨

对江淮流域1885～1998年的特别丰、枯梅雨进行研究,重点论述近60年中4个重大丰梅年和三个空梅年的降水特点、异常变化、前期有关特征及严重后延影响等,并提出讨论意见。     

CHARACTERISTICS OF 10-DAY MEAN SURFACE SENSIBLE HEAT FLUX VARIATIONS IN THE SCS MONSOON REGION AND POSSIBLE CONNECTIONS WITH THE SCS SUMMER MONSOON ONSET*

The time and space variations of the ten-day mean surface sensible heat flux have been analyzed in this paper based on the data of NCEP/NCAR from January of 1979 to December of 1995 in the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon region.It is found that large variations of the surface sensible heat flux standard deviations exist in the northwestern Indochina Peninsula and the Indian Peninsula regions,and their locations and strength change significantly during the onset period of SCS monsoon.The negative deviations appear evidently earlier in the Indocbina Peninsula than in the Indian Peninsula but the deviation strength in the Indian Peninsula is stronger than that in the Indochina Peninsula.The appearance of the zonal negative mean deviations in the southern part of the Indochina Peninsula corresponds to the date of the SCS summer monsoon onset,while the occurrence of the deviation decrease corresponds to the date of the South Asian monsoon onset.The sensible heat flux increases dekad by dekad before the onset of the summer monsoon in the Indian Peninsula and the Indochina Peninsula and decreases after the monsoon onset.Therefore,the surface sensible heat flux changes in the Indochina and the Indian Peninsula regions maybe have some connections with the SCS monsoon onset and the Indian monsoon onset,and the Indochina Peninsula maybe becomes the sensitive or key region to the SCS monsoon onset and the land maybe plays an important role in triggering summer monsoon onset.     

CHARACTERISTICS OF 10-DAY MEAN SURFACE LATENT HEAT FLUX VARIATIONS IN THE SCS MONSOON REGION AND POSSIBLE CONNECTIONS WITH THE SCS SUMMER MONSOON ONSET

The temporal and spatial variations of the ten-day mean surface latent heat flux (TMLH) havebeen analyzed in this paper based on the data of NCEP from January of 1979 to December of 1995in the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon region. It is found that there exist maximum centers ofTMLH standard deviation in the northwest Indochina and the Indian Peninsula as well as thewestern Pacific, SCS, the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, and their locations and strengthschange significantly during the period of SCS monsoon onset. A positive zonal deviation of TMLHoccurs first in the Indochina Peninsula, apparently earlier than that in the Indian Peninsula. Theappearance of maximum positive zonal deviations of TMLH approximately coincides with thesummer monsoon onset. Over the Indochina and Indian Peninsulas, the TMLH increases graduallywith a small amplitude of variation before the onset of summer monsoon, and the rate of increase issignificantly enhanced after the onset of the monsoon; whereas over the ocean, TMLH decreasesbefore the monsoon onset, varies little during the period of monsoon and increases gradually afterthe ending of monsoon. Therefore, it seems that the surface latent heat flux plays an importantrole in the maintenance of the summer monsoon, and its variation is an phenomenon accompanyingthe onset of summer monsoon.     

TOVS卫星反演资料变分分析的试验研究与应用

为弥补海洋、高原等地带常规资料的不足,分析使用非常规卫星资料得到越来越多的重视,其中TOVS资料的精度及与常规资料的误差减少的研究尤为重要。本文采用变分分析技术对TOVS卫星反演资料进行同化分析研究,结果表明,变分结果分析场能充分体现常规与非常规资料的优势,使得天气系统能得到更精确的表示。     

湖北长湖富营养化状况及时空变化(2012-2013年)

为评估长湖水体富营养化程度,2012-2013年分4个季度对全湖区20个采样点的物理、化学和生物要素进行监测,在评价水质现状的基础上采用综合营养状况指数法和浮游植物细胞丰度指数法综合评价水体营养状况,并应用典型相关分析(CCA)方法揭示水体富营养化状况与湖泊理化要素之间的典型相关性.结果显示:4个季节长湖全湖区的水质均处于地表水IV类~劣V类水标准;综合营养状态指数值在49.54~82.55之间,浮游植物细胞丰度在2.88×106~61.73×106cells/L之间,均显示其处于富营养化状态;长湖富营养化状况的分布呈现一定的时空差异性;CCA分析显示,长湖理化要素变量可解释68.6%的水体富营养化状况变量的变异,影响其富营养化状况的主要理化因素有水体总磷、总氮、溶解氧、亚硝态氮、硝态氮浓度,水深和沉积物总磷、总氮含量.长湖水体富营养化主要是由于外源的磷污染,其次是氮污染,富营养化最严重的夏、秋季浮游植物的生长主要受氮营养限制,而冬、春季则部分受磷营养限制,部分属于过渡类型.因此,建议大力削减围网/围栏养殖量,同时考虑结合水生植物栽种等生态工程建设措施以降低长湖水体发生严重富营养化的风险,并进一步改善长湖的水质现状.