Extreme value analysis in a multivariate offshore environment

Floating offshore systems are exposed to a multivariate environment with wind, waves and current all making a significant contribution to the mooring forces. The design of such systems requires an appreciation of the extreme conditions but the concept of the return period value has to be extended to reflect multiple environmental variables. This study examines the practicalities of employing a multivariate point process model in extreme value analyses, using a moored semi-submersible and its responses to the wind and waves as an example. The output from this illustrative bivariate analysis includes both estimates of the 50-year mooring force and also return period contours which indicate the likely combinations of wind and wave which might give rise to the 50-year condition.     

New Method for Predicting the Motion Responses of A Flexible Joint Multi-Body Floating System to Irregular Waves

A new hybrid method of frequency domain and time domain is developed in this paper to predict the motion responses of a flexibly joint multi-body floating system to irregular waves. The main idea of the method is that the three-dimensional frequency method is used to obtain the hydrodynamic coefficients and the response equations are solved in time domain step by step. All the forces can be obtained at the same time. The motions and nonlinear mooring forces of a box type six-body floating system are predicted. A comparison of the theoretical method-based solutions with experimental results has shown good agreement.     

Uncertainty and joint probability of sea ice loads

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由模拟波面统计分析波高－周期联合分布

阐述以实测或拟合海浪谱为靶谱，用等能量分割法作波面数值模拟，从而利用模拟波面统计分析波高（Ｈ）－周期（Ｔ）联合分布。对波候的Ｈ－Ｔ联合分布、长时段海浪连续记录的Ｈ－Ｔ联合分布以及风浪、涌浪和混合浪的Ｈ－Ｔ联合分布进行了讨论。结果表明，只要已知特征波高和周期，就可反演出模拟波面，进而估测Ｈ－Ｔ联合分布情况，这对了解与各种特征波高对应的周期问题及在海洋工程应用上有一定的参考意义。     

基于风浪联合概率模型的海洋平台结构系统可靠度分析

基于多变量极值理论的联合概率模型,根据BZ28—1油田一年多的风浪同步观测资料统计得到风浪联合概率分布及其参数,讨论了海洋平台结构系统可靠度分析的等效荷载方法,在此基础上分析了JZ20—2MUQ平台结构的系统可靠度,并与不考虑风浪相关性影响的JZ20—2MUQ平台结构的系统可靠度比较,得到了风浪相关性对系统可靠度的影响情况。     

河口、海岸环境下床沙输运的初步实验研究

量测了在水深0.5m的情况下波浪、水流通过水平沙床所产生的床沙输移。实验波高为0.15m，周期分别为1.4和2.0s。首先量测纯波浪下的床沙输移，然后量测波流共同作用下，水流与波浪行进方向一致其稳定速度分别为0.02,0.04,0.06m/s时的床沙输移，结果表明，2个沙槽所得的总输沙率在波周期2.0s时最大，净输沙率在波周期1.4s时最大，将波叠加在速度为0.02m/s的水流上时，2种波型的净输沙率都增加约1倍，水流为0.04m/s和0.06m/s时2种波型的净输沙率分别都减少。     

The multivariate (co)variogram as a spatial weighting function in classification methods

The multivariate variogram and the multivariate covariogram are used as spatial weighting functions for forming spatially homogeneous groups automatically. The groups are created after either deflating similarities between distant samples with the multivariate covariogram or by inflating dissimilarities between distant samples with the multivariate variogram. These approaches can be seen as generalization of the Oliver and Webster proposal. Two data sets show the efficiency of the two weighting functions when compared to the classical approach which does not take spatial information into account. In one case study, the weighting of similarities by the multivariate covariogram showed more interpretable results than the weighting of dissimilarities by the multivariate variogram.     

Predictability of stemflow in a species‐rich tropical forest

Numerous studies investigated the influence of abiotic (meteorological conditions) and biotic factors (tree characteristics) on stemflow generation. Although these studies identified the variables that influence stemflow volumes in simply structured forests, the combination of tree characteristics that allows a robust prediction of stemflow volumes in species‐rich forests is not well known. Many hydrological applications, however, require at least a rough estimate of stemflow volumes based on the characteristics of a forest stand. The need for robust predictions of stemflow motivated us to investigate the relationships between tree characteristics and stemflow volumes in a species‐rich tropical forest located in central Panama. Based on a sampling setup consisting of ten rainfall collectors, 300 throughfall samplers and 60 stemflow collectors and cumulated data comprising 26 rain events, we derive three main findings. Firstly, stemflow represents a minor hydrological component in the studied 1‐ha forest patch (1.0% of cumulated rainfall). Secondly, in the studied species‐rich forest, single tree characteristics are only weakly related to stemflow volumes. The influence of multiple tree parameters (e.g. crown diameter, presence of large epiphytes and inclination of branches) and the dependencies among these parameters require a multivariate approach to understand the generation of stemflow. Thirdly, predicting stemflow in species‐rich forests based on tree parameters is a difficult task. Although our best model can capture the variation in stemflow to some degree, a critical validation reveals that the model cannot provide robust predictions of stemflow. A reanalysis of data from previous studies in species‐rich forests corroborates this finding. Based on these results and considering that for most hydrological applications, stemflow is only one parameter among others to estimate, we advocate using the base model, i.e. the mean of the stemflow data, to quantify stemflow volumes for a given study area. Studies in species‐rich forests that wish to obtain predictions of stemflow based on tree parameters probably need to conduct a much more extensive sampling than currently implemented by most studies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multivariate statistical analysis and environmental isotopes of Amman/Wadi Sir (B2/A7) groundwater,Yarmouk River Basin,Jordan

Multivariate statistical techniques, cluster and factor analyses were applied on the Amman/Wadi Sir groundwater chemistry, Yarmouk River basin, north Jordan. The main objective was to investigate the main processes affecting the groundwater chemical quality and its evolution. The k‐means cluster analysis yields three groups with distinct ionic concentrations. Cluster 1 comprises the vast majority of the sampled wells, and the water that belongs to this cluster can be classified as freshwater. Cluster 2 comprises only 2% of the sampled wells; it has the highest ionic concentration. The water of this cluster can be classified as brackish water. Cluster 3 involves 23% of the sampled wells, and it has total ionic concentration intermediate to that of clusters 1 and 2. Factor analysis yields a three‐factor model, which explains 76.77% of the groundwater quality variation. Factor 1 ‘salinity factor’ involves EC, Na⁺, Cl^‐, SO₄^‐2, K⁺ and Mg⁺² and reflects groundwater salinization because of overpumping. Factor 2 ‘hardness factor’ includes Ca⁺², HCO₃^‐ and the pH value and signifies soil–water/rock interaction. Factor 3 ‘nitrate factor’ involves only NO₃^‐ and points to groundwater contamination because of human activities, mainly untreated wastewater, and crops and animal cultivation in the unconfined portion of the aquifer. Factors 1 and 3 can be described as human‐induced factors, whereas factor 2 can be described as geogenic factor. Factors' scores were mapped to deduce the controlling processes on the groundwater chemistry. Stable isotope composition of ¹⁸O and ²H has revealed that the groundwater is a mixture of two water types. The radioactive isotopes tritium and ¹⁴ C were used to evaluate present day recharge to the aquifer and to estimate the groundwater age, respectively. Present day recharge to the groundwater is taking place in the unconfined portion of the aquifer as it is indicated by the measurable tritium content and low groundwater age. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Agricultural land use and hydrology affect variability of shallow groundwater nitrate concentration in South Florida

South Florida's Miami‐Dade agricultural area is located between two protected natural areas, the Biscayne and Everglades National Parks, subject to the costliest environmental restoration project in history. Agriculture, an important economic activity in the region, competes for land and water resources with the restoration efforts and Miami's urban sprawl. The objective of this study, understanding water quality interactions between agricultural land use and the shallow regional aquifer, is critical to the reduction of agriculture's potentially negative impacts. A study was conducted in a 4‐ha square field containing 0·9 ha of corn surrounded by fallow land. The crop rows were oriented NW–SE along the dominant groundwater flow in the area. A network of 18 monitoring wells was distributed across the field. Shallow groundwater nitrate–nitrogen concentration [N‐NO₃^?] was analyzed on samples collected from the wells biweekly for 3 years. Detailed hydrological (water table elevation [WTE] at each well, groundwater flow direction [GwFD], rainfall) and crop (irrigation, fertilization, calendar) data were also recorded in situ. Flow direction is locally affected by seasonal regional drainage through canal management exercised by the local water authority. The data set was analyzed by dynamic factor analysis (DFA), a specialized time series statistical technique only recently applied in hydrology. In a first step, the observed nitrate variation was successfully described by five common trends representing the unexplained variability. By including the measured hydrological series as explanatory variables the trends were reduced to only three. The analysis yields a quantification of the effects of hydrological factors over local groundwater nitrate concentration. Furthermore, a spatial structure across the field, matching land use, was found in the five remaining common trends whereby the groundwater [N‐NO₃^?] in wells within the corn rows could be generally separated from those in fallow land NW and SE of the crop strip. Fertilization, masked by soil/water/plant‐delayed processes, had no discernible effect on groundwater nitrate levels. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.