基于FLAC3D岩石黏弹塑性流变模型的二次开发研究

由于岩土介质的复杂多样性,通用分析软件所提供的岩石流变本构模型往往不能满足工程实际数值分析的需要。依据FLAC3D（Version 2.1）所提供的二次开发程序接口,结合西原黏弹塑性流变模型分析了二次开发程序运行的基本原理,给出了西原流变模型具体实施的程序框图和代码编写中应该注意的几个关键技术。通过一个简单的算例验证了程序编制的正确性与可靠性。由于采用了面向对象的程序技术,FLAC3D二次开发接口更加简单实用,提供的研究思路可为其他流变本构模型的二次开发提供参考。     

基于三维流-固耦合模型的油井出砂细观机制研究

油井出砂机制的研究是提高油藏产能和石油开采成本减小的关键课题,而常规的宏观力学理论和方法不能全面反映油藏开采过程中油井出砂的发生和发展。鉴于砂岩储层的物理性质和射孔试验特征,从岩土力学的角度建立基于柱坐标系的三维颗粒流数值模型,与理论分析成果进行比较,以说明该细观数值模型可行性,有效地模拟出砂过程中的渗流及流-固耦合效应。在该基础上,综合考虑流体压力梯度力和拖曳力,基于PFC3D模型模拟流体不同运动时的砂岩性态。数值分析得到的模型宏观应力图形说明流体运动对砂岩力学特性的影响不可忽略,且在相同条件下,流量越大,砂岩的塑性区越大,形成砂岩破坏出砂的几率也越大。同时,不同工况的砂岩黏结分布和颗粒转动图形表明,相同条件下流量越大,颗粒间平行黏结破坏越多,颗粒转动越大,失去黏结约束的颗粒也越多,出砂量就越大,可见两种细观特征图形与宏观应力图形变化规律一致,该模型可用于油井出砂机制的研究,可为出砂量预测及出砂控制提供新的研究思路。     

Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part II: Elucidating ecosystem dynamics from 1995 to 2004 with a focus on the impact of ENSO

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported.     

A Numerical Model for Natural Backfill of Pipeline Trenches Subjected to Unidirectional／Oscillatory Flows

A numerical model for the self-burial of a pipeline trench is developed. Morphological evolutions of a pipeline trench under steady-current or oscillatory-flow conditions are simulated with/without a pipeline inside the trench. The oscillatory flow in this study represents the action of waves. The two-dimensional Reynolds-averaged continuity and Navier-Stokes equations with the standard k-e turbulence closure, as well as the sediment transport equations, are solved with the finite difference method in a eurvilirrear coordinate system. Both bed and suspended loads of sediment transport are included in the morphological model. Because of the lack of experimental data on the backfilling of pipeline trenches, the numericalmodel is firstly verified against three closely-relevant experiments available in literature. A detailed measurement of the channel migration phenomenon under steady currents is employed for the assessment of the integral performance of themodel. The two experimental results from U-tube tests are used to validate the model‘s ability in predicting oscillatory flows. Different time-marching schemes are employed for the morphological computation under unidirectional and oscillatory conditions. It is found that vortex motions within the trench play an important role in the trench development.     

全新世以来珠江三角洲海鸥沙形成过程的地貌动力学分析

海鸥沙是珠江三角洲一个极富特色的沉积砂体。本文基于钻孔资料并结合长周期“动力-沉积-形态”模型, 从沉积学和地貌动力学角度对全新世以来海鸥沙的形成演变过程进行了探讨。海欧沙在全新世的沉积层序自下而上分别为河流相、河口湾浅海相和三角洲相。全新世海侵盛期以来, 虎门涨潮射流和东北—西南向涨落潮流是影响海鸥沙形成演变的主要动力。6000—2500a BP, 受东北—西南向涨落潮流的影响, 海鸥沙中北部地区一直处于冲刷无沉积状态, 由虎门涨潮射流带来的泥沙主要在海鸥沙南部沉积, 沉积速率约为0.67mm·a ^-1; 2500—1700a BP, 随着番禺平原的发育, 东北—西南向涨落潮流逐渐消弱, 海鸥沙进入一个快速沉积期, 平均沉积速率约为15mm·a ^-1, 沉积由两端向中间发展; 1700—600a BP, 随着沙湾水道的形成, 海鸥沙中部迅速发展, 至600a BP左右, 海鸥沙基本形成并出露水面。     

新疆精河M_W6.3地震产生的静态应力变化研究

利用精河M_W6.3地震有限断层破裂模型,计算了精河地震产生的位移场、应力场、周围主要断层上的静态库仑应力变化以及主震对余震的触发作用。结果表明:(1)精河地震产生的地表隆升最大值约为6.6cm,沉降最大值约为1.8cm;水平位移方向呈现震中南北侧向震中汇聚、震中东西侧向外"流出"的特点。(2)精河地震产生的水平面应力场展布南北侧物质主要受到指向震中的拉张力作用,东西两侧物质主要受到因震中过剩物质东西向排出而导致的东西向挤压力作用。(3)震中西侧距震中约20km的库松木契克山前断裂中段和震中东北部距震中约50km的四棵树-古尔图南断裂西段的库仑应力加载均大于0.01MPa,即2处为地震危险区。(4)在震源深度为8~12km的余震事件中,约有85.5%处于库仑应力加载区,即受到主震的的触发作用;在深度为4~8km的余震事件中,约有87%受到主震的应力触发作用。     

Net Horizontal Payments for Ecosystem Services: An Application in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China

Payments for ecosystem services (PES) are one kind of important tool for environmental protection, and have been widely studied by international scholars and conservationists. Based various definitions of PES from recent articles, we have outlined four principles for PES: parity, measurability, additionality and conditionality, and then have used these principles to develop a formula to calculate a standard for PES. Finding a way to use PES to achieve a win-win relationship between economic growth and environmental protection in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region (BTHR) is a key task for Chinese government. Synergetic development of BTHR has become a national strategy, like The Belt and Road Initiative. This article employed the formula we developed to calculate the net horizontal PES amounts that each provincial government within BTHR should pay. Our findings show that Beijing should have paid 10.44×10⁹ Yuan (0.4% of Beijing’s GRP) and Tianjin 16.56×10⁹ Yuan (0.93% of Tianjin’s GRP) to Hebei in 2016.     

部分变量误差模型的整体抗差最小二乘估计

部分变量误差模型(partial EIV model)的加权整体最小二乘(weighted total least-squares,WTLS)估计不具备抵御粗差的能力。鉴于粗差可能同时出现在观测值和系数矩阵中,本文在提出部分变量误差模型WTLS估计的两步迭代解法的基础上,运用抗差M估计的等价权方法,发展了一种整体抗差最小二乘(TRLS)估计方法,并采用一致最大功效统计量确定降权因子。针对WTLS估计两步迭代解法的特点,设计了两个不同的降权方案:第1个方案是在估计系数矩阵元素时,不对观测值降权,仅对系数矩阵降权;第2个方案是在估计系数矩阵元素时,既对系数矩阵降权,同时也对观测值降权。通过对模拟2D仿射变换和线性拟合实例进行计算和分析,结果表明第1方案优于第2方案,并且优于基于残差和验后单位权方差的抗差估计和现有的变量误差模型抗差估计。     

层状岩质边坡遍布节理模型的三维稳定性分析

采用遍布节理模型（ubiquitous-joint模型）描述层状岩体的各向异性特征,并探讨ubiquitous-joint准则中安全系数的计算方法,利用FLAC3D分析层理倾角、倾向与边坡稳定性之间的关系,结果表明：（1）对于顺层边坡,当岩层倾向与坡面倾向的夹角 较小时,边坡的安全系数随层理倾角 的增大呈现先减小后增大再减小的趋势; 20°～30°时,安全系数得到最小值, 60°时安全系数得到最大值;不同破坏型式导致安全系数变化规律之间的差异;当 较大时,曲线从先减小后增大的趋势转变为不断增大的趋势;根据 的大小将顺层边坡分为两类：当 45°时,为严格顺层边坡;当45° 90°时,为斜向层状边坡。（2）对于逆层边坡,当 45°时,曲线呈现先增大再减小然后又增大的趋势,各曲线随 的变化程度基本相同;但减小过程中,随着 的增大,曲线的斜率逐渐减小,边坡稳定性的各向异性程度减小;当 45°时,曲线随 的增大呈现非线性单调递增的趋势。（3）安全系数与 之间的关系表明,对于顺层坡,随着 的增大,边坡安全系数逐渐增大;对于逆层坡,当 较小时( 150°),边坡安全系数随 的增大而逐渐减小;随着 的增大( 120°),边坡安全系数与 呈现递增关系。     

基于非均质地层参数表征的颗粒流模型构建

非均质地层参数的获取与表征方法是浅层地质体改造的重要依据。基于非均质地层的地质建模,表征具有随机不确定性和模糊不确定性的土体表观参数和物理力学参数。利用 Weibull 分布统计描述局部地层信息,并应用Diamond-Square分形插值方法,结合差分盒子维计算非均质地层分形维数,进一步合理演算整体地层参数。采用PFC3D数值模拟软件,结合马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法采样数据,对非均质地层块石颗粒及土颗粒进行建模。通过非均质地层模拟结果,发现其破坏过程与应力应变曲线要比均质土体复杂得多,由于块石大颗粒的含量、分布特性对土样力学性质影响显著。本文建模方法有助于非均质地层参数表征研究。