改进型经验正交函数海洋声速剖面预报方法

鉴于深海温跃层以下往往声速值缺乏,声速剖面不完整的原因,提出一种声速剖面的预报方法:在传统经验正交函数预报法基础上,首先改进协方差矩阵的求解方法,将原始数据的空间信息和时间信息有效地融合到协方差矩阵中,通过由大量实测数据统计得出的时间函数的经验公式,得到合成剖面,将二者结合,把不完整剖面垂直向下延拓到海底,较为有效地解决了传统方法求解协方差矩阵和时间函数较粗糙的问题,给出了完整的海洋声速剖面的准确预报.实测数据检验结果表明,改进方法的预报精度比传统方法有了很大提高.     

Estimation and prediction of plastic waste annual input into the sea from China

Marine plastic debris has been a pervasive issue since the last century, and research on its sources and fates plays a vital role in the establishment of mitigation measures. However, data on the quantity of plastic waste that enters the sea on a certain timescale remain largely unavailable in China. Here, we established a model using material flow analysis method based on life cycle assessment to follow plastic product from primary plastic to plastic waste with statistical data and monitoring data from accurate sources. This model can be used to estimate and forecast the annual input of plastic waste into the sea from China until 2020. In 2011, 0.547 3–0.751 5 million tons of plastic waste entered the seas in China, with a growth rate of 4.55% per year until 2017. And the amount will decrease to0.257 1 to 0.353 1 million tons in 2020 under the influence of governmental management. The amount of plastic waste discharged from coastal areas calculated in this study was much larger than that from river, thus it is suggested to strengthen the governance and control of plastic waste in coastal fishery activities in China in order to reduce the amount of marine plastic waste input.     

Numerical study on scale effect of form factor

The scale effect of form factor is investigated via a numerical approach in this paper, where the turbulent ship flow is computed by solving the steady and incompressible Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes and continuity equations. A wall function approach is employed to bridge the near-wall and outer turbulent flow region. The numerical scheme based on a finite-volume formulation is applied to discretize the coupled governing equation. For the sake of numerical stability, accuracy and economy, an identical grid is employed to compute ship flow at different Reynolds number, where the grid is optimized for the medium Reynolds number of the investigated range. Four surface ships and two sub-bodies with notably different geometrical characteristics are chosen as the investigated cases, where double-model flow without appendages is computed. The calculated total resistance coefficient shows a decreasing tendency against Reynolds number among all studied hulls. Similar to the calculated total resistance coefficient, the calculated friction resistance coefficient decreases with the Reynolds number and varies relatively little for a given Reynolds number among different hulls. The viscous pressure resistance coefficient is less insensitive to the Reynolds number but apparently depends on hull form. Compared with the form factor calculation based on empirical friction lines, the flat-plate friction prediction based on CFD approach clearly gives smaller Re-dependent form factor, which should more realistically reflect the scale effect of form factor. The form factor exhibits a near linear and increasing dependence on Reynolds number. The numerical results show that the dependence of r_P on Reynolds number mainly governs the scale effect of form factor.     

湖底扇水道相控建模技术及应用

随着渤海勘探力度加强,大型湖底扇岩性圈闭逐渐成为新的勘探目标,但是湖底扇不同期次水道垂向相互叠合,部分水道下切,砂体展布以及砂体间的连通关系复杂。针对湖底扇储层具有非均质性强,储层刻画难度大的特点,以渤海垦利10-A构造为例,充分利用多种地震信息,高度综合地质、钻井、测井、地震等资料,将传统的“相控建模”思想引入湖底扇储层建模当中,提出了湖底扇储层相控建模新技术。该技术在对湖底扇沉积构型模式和富砂性深入研究的基础上,利用湖底扇储集相和三维甜点体属性进行双重控制和约束,在地质认识指导下,应用地质统计学理论和随机建模方法建立符合地质规律的三维岩相模型,在多次建模实现后求取砂岩概率体,完成对湖底扇水道的精细刻画,砂体连通性分析和储层预测。研究结果表明,该方法能有效地降低储层属性模拟的不确定性和多解性,提高储层预测的精度,为后期勘探布井奠定了基础。     

城市空气质量数值预报的不确定性与可预报性

主要综述了数据误差、随机误差和模式物理误差所造成的城市空气质量数值预报的不确定性,简要介绍分析预报不确定性的统计方法。并对由内在随机性和外在误差引起的可预报性问题进行了分析讨论     

Experimental investigation on a cabin-suspended catamaran in terms of motion reduction and wave energy harvesting by means of a semi-active motion control system

A novel concept catamaran equipped with a suspended cabin, named Wave Harmonizer Type 4 (WHzer-4), is proposed and evaluated. The mass-spring-mass system is constructed by mounting four sets of suspensions in-between the cabin and the twin-hull. Two sets of dual motor/generators (M/Gs) are attached on the center beam of the cabin's deck fore and aft. Each shaft-end of the dual M/Gs is connected to the twin-hull through a rack-pinion gear unit. In this way the vertical relative motion between the cabin and the twin-hull can be transferred into the rotational motion of the M/Gs, and vice versa. A semi-active motion control system, which contains a proportional-integral (PI) controller, is designed and applied to each of the dual M/Gs for the aim of absorbing wave energy under the condition of suppressing the local vertical velocity of the cabin as much as possible. A 1/5 scale model ship with a length of 1.6 m is built, and a forced-oscillation bench test is implemented to validate the performance of the control system. Then, a series of towing tank tests is carried out in regular head waves. The heave and pitch responses of the cabin, those of the twin-hull and the corresponding wave energy capture width ratio (CWR) at five control scenarios and two reference scenarios are investigated. Discussion on the results of the tank test shows that the motion reduction of the cabin and the wave energy harvesting can be achieved simultaneously at a few wave conditions. However, at other conditions, although noticeable amount of wave energy is harvested, motion reduction of the heave and pitch of the cabin could not be obtained at the same time. It is suggested that varying the gain settings of the PI controllers according to the location of the controllers may improve the effectiveness of the proposed control system.     

震前云下增温异常及其时段特征

利用卫星热红外图像资料做地震短临预报, 主要依据的是地表大气增温异常在卫星图像上的亮温反映。 但在阴云密布的天气条件下, 这种预报方法却受到了限制, 因为卫星无法探测到地面或水面是否有增温异常。 通过气象资料分析, 得知云层或其他气象条件引起的降温并不能改变震前地表温度增加的趋势。 某些地震之前虽然震中及其附近地区天空阴云密布, 地面增温幅度却可高达十几度。 云下增温曲线可划分为3个时段(即A、 B、 C段), 其中A段与C段分别为增温前与震后的温度变化曲线, 多与日照时间呈正相关关系, 特别是A段的这种关系更具普遍性。 然而, 反映震前地面增温特征的B段却与日照时间没有明显的相关性, 可见这种持续增温、 与云量无关的波状增温等都主要不是由日照或气象条件引起的, 而是一种与地下应力作用、 气体释放、 瞬变电场等有关的震兆现象。 因此, 提高对云下增温的系统观测能力, 是改善热红外地震预报的有效途径。     

地震预报思路的再讨论

文中回顾了1974年提出的“块、带、源、兆、触、报”六字预报思路，并基于近20年来的研究对此进行了补充和深化。     

奇异谱分析方法在夏季降雨预测中的应用

运用奇异谱分析方法对石家庄市83年降水进行了统计分析，结果表明：石家庄市近百年夏季降水的趋势变化不太显著，主要以波动变化为主，主振荡周期分别为5－6年、10年左右及30－40年左右的长周期变化，各重建分量振幅、位相具有明显的年代际变化。利用重建分量进行降水趋势预测，1998－2001年试报表明，效果较好。     

地震反演技术在辽河兴隆台地区沙三段储层预测中的应用

地震反演是储层预测三大技术系列的核心,其充分利用地震资料在横向分辨率、测井资料在纵向分辨率上的优势,对储层的空间分布特征进行合理的预测。在对辽河兴隆台地区沙三段地层特征、储层难点分析的基础上,通过地震资料品质的研究与正演分析、测井曲线标准化处理、子波提取与精细合成记录标定等前期处理工作,优选反演参数,并应用约束稀疏脉冲反演技术对沙三段进行了储层预测,精细地刻画了储层的空间展布特征,并落实和优选了2个有利圈闭,部署探井2口,为该区的井位部署及储量上报提供了地质依据。