Momentum transport of wave zero during March: A possible predictor for the Indian summer monsoon

Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between ‡S and ‡N for January to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1% level of significance) between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal belt between 25‡S and 5‡N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March.     

浅论新疆海相火山热水沉积矿床的分带及其找矿意义

新疆海相火山热水沉积矿床，一般在时间上没有明显的集中生长期。空间上依附于活动大陆边缘火山岛弧带，它在区域上和矿床本身具有矿种转化、类型转换、配套与分带特征。以块状氧化物、块状碳酸盐和块状硫化物转换序次来研究该类矿床。利用铁木尔特铅锌矿上部铅锌下部铜金，预须开普台铁矿上铁下铜；莫托沙拉铁锰矿上锰下铁中间铅锌重晶石等矿种转化规律和由块状氧化物和块状碳酸盐向块状硫化物成生过渡特点，预测诸如蒙库铁矿、赤龙峰火山盆地中铁矿和喀喇昆仑山各铁矿床(点)外围与深部转换、发展成为铜金矿的成矿前景。     

过去5000年西太平洋副热带高压活动的泥炭纤维素碳同位素记录

文章以金川和红原两组泥炭纤维素Δδ¹³C时间序列值的反向变化来指示西太平洋副热带高压活动变化.结果表明,在过去5000年中,西太平洋副热带高压的活动可分为4个阶段,即西太平洋副热带高压位置在2800～2200B.C.期间持续偏北,2200～600B.C.期间持续偏南,600B.C.～1200A.D.期间在北进与南移之间频繁波动,以及1200～1900A.D.期间再次持续偏北,它们导致降雨量在中国大陆上不同的分布.从约1900A.D.起西太平洋副热带高压的活动似乎又开始一个新的偏南阶段,值得进一步加强研究.     

Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D. 1840 ——Tree-ring evidences from China and Korea

The main characteristic of the East Asian climate is the monsoon system. Plenty of studies have demonstrated that the Asian monsoon system plays a crucial role in the global climate sys- tem [1-4]. The Asian summer monsoon can be divided into two parts, t…     

Seismic scattering at the top of the mantle Transition Zone

We document strong seismic scattering from around the top of the mantle Transition Zone in all available high resolution explosion seismic profiles from Siberia and North America. This seismic reflectivity from around the 410 km discontinuity indicates the presence of pronounced heterogeneity in the depth interval between 320 and 450 km in the Earth’s mantle. We model the seismic observations by heterogeneity in the form of random seismic scatterers with typical scale lengths of kilometre size (10-40 km by 2-10 km) in a 100-140 km thick depth interval. The observed heterogeneity may be explained by changes in the depths to the α-β-γ spinel transformations caused by an unexpectedly high iron content at the top of the mantle Transition Zone. The phase transformation of pyroxenes into the garnet mineral majorite probably also contributes to the reflectivity, mainly below a depth of 400 km, whereas we find it unlikely that the presence of water or partial melt is the main cause of the observed strong seismic reflectivity. Subducted oceanic slabs that equilibrated at the top of the Transition Zone may also contribute to the observed reflectivity. If this is the main cause of the reflectivity, a substantial amount of young oceanic lithosphere has been subducted under Siberia and North America during their geologic evolution. Subducted slabs may have initiated metamorphic reactions in the original mantle rocks.     

Circulation characteristics of a monsoon depression during BOBMEX-99 using high-resolution analysis

The skill and efficiency of a numerical model mostly varies with the quality of initial values, accuracy on parameterization of physical processes and horizontal and vertical resolution of the model. Commonly used low-resolution reanalyses are hardly able to capture the prominent features associated with organized convective processes in a monsoon depression. The objective is to prepare improved high-resolution analysis by the use of MM5 modelling system developed by the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR). It requires the objective comparison of high and low-resolution analysis datasets in assessing the specific convective features of a monsoon depression. For this purpose, reanalysis datasets of NCAR/NCEP (National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction) at a horizontal resolution of 2.5‡ (latitude/longitude) have been used as first guess in the objective analysis scheme. The additional asynoptic datasets obtained during BOBMEX-99 are utilized within the assimilation process. Cloud Motion Wind (CMW) data of METEOSAT satellite and SSM/I surface wind data are included for the improvement of derived analysis. The multiquadric (MQD) interpolation technique is selected and applied for meteorological objective analysis at a horizontal resolution of 30 km. After a successful inclusion of additional data, the resulting reanalysis is able to produce the structure of convective organization as well as prominent synoptic features associated with monsoon depression. Comparison and error verifications have been done with the help of available upper-air station data. The objective verification reveals the efficiency of the analysis scheme.     

Observed daily large-scale rainfall patterns during BOBMEX-1999

A daily rainfall dataset and the corresponding rainfall maps have been produced by objective analysis of rainfall data. The satellite estimate of rainfall and the raingauge values are merged to form the final analysis. Associated with epochs of monsoon these rainfall maps are able to show the rainfall activities over India and the Bay of Bengal region during the BOBMEX period. The intra-seasonal variations of rainfall during BOBMEX are also seen using these data. This dataset over the oceanic region compares well with other available popular datasets like GPCP and CMAP. Over land this dataset brings out the features of monsoon in more detail due to the availability of more local raingauge stations.     

Numerical models of tectonic deformation at the Baltica–Avalonia transition zone during the Paleocene phase of inversion

Predictions from dynamic modelling of the lithospheric deformation are presented for Northern Europe, where several basins underwent inversion during the Late Cretaceous and Early Cenozoic and contemporary uplift and erosion of sediments occurred. In order to analyse the evolution of the continental lithosphere, the equations for the deformation of a continuum are solved numerically under thin sheet assumption for the lithosphere. The most important stress sources are assumed to be the Late Cretaceous Alpine tectonics; localized rheological heterogeneities can also affect local deformation and stress patterns. Present-day observations available in the studied region and coming from seismic structural interpretations and stress measurements have been used to constrain the model. Our modelling results show that lateral variation in lithospheric strength below the basin systems in Central Europe strongly controls the regional deformation and the stress regime. Furthermore, we have demonstrated that the geometry of the boundary between Baltica and Avalonia, together with different rheological characteristics of the two plates, had a crucial role on local crustal deformation and faulting regime resulting in the Baltica–Avalonia transition zone from the S–N Alpine convergence.     

2002年南海季风建立及其雨带变化的天气学研究

利用南海海 气通量观测试验资料结合NCEP ,GPCP以及GMS - 5云图资料 ,综合分析了 2 0 0 2年 5～ 6月南海西南季风建立过程及其雨带变化 ,确定 5月 14日西沙及北部海区西南季风爆发 ,5月 15日整个南海季风爆发 ,季风爆发时间属于正常年 ;季风爆发时风向、风速、云量、降水、湿度、辐射及海面温度等要素都发生突变。这种突变是由大气环流的突变造成的。季风爆发前后大气环流变化过程是 :80～ 90°E越赤道气流加强 ,同时印缅低压加深 ,孟加拉湾南北向气压梯度增大 ,而后东亚大陆上气旋发展东移 ,副热带高压东撤 ,孟加拉湾低压槽前的赤道西风突然加强越过中南半岛 ,南海北部首先出现强西南风 ,继而南海季风迅速地全面爆发。孟加拉湾西南风加强到南海季风爆发是一个连续的过程 ,大陆冷空气南下起了重要的作用。南海季风爆发时呈现单雨带型 ,而后由单雨带型转变为双雨带型 ,雨带受副热带高压和季风系统共同影响 ,并且随着副热带高压移动位置变化。     

南海夏季风持续异常的特征及其对全球环流的影响II.数值试验

利用T42L9全球大气环流谱模式进行数值试验 ,以揭示南海夏季风强度异常的特征及其影响。控制试验结果表明 ,该模式不仅能够很好地模拟出气候平均的西风带槽脊和高低空气流分布以及它们的季节性变化 ,而且对于与亚洲季风有关的各个主要系统 ,如南亚高压、副高进退及越赤道气流等都有较强的模拟能力。在亚洲季风区及热带太平洋这一大范围区域的大气内部热源异常强迫下 ,模式显示出了南海夏季风持续异常的特征、北半球热带外环流的响应以及亚洲季风区降水异常分布。南海夏季风长时间强度异常所引起的大气内部热源异常 ,一方面通过三维垂直环流的异常联结着南海夏季风对北半球热带内外环流的影响 ,另一方面它又通过持续异常期的波列传播 ,即能量的传播 ,不仅影响我国长江流域降水 ,还会逐渐影响到北半球中高纬环流结构。这样西风带环流形势将会发生相应的变化和调整 ,南海夏季风持续异常影响到了北半球大气环流和天气气候的变化。