南海夏季风爆发前后亚洲地区的大尺度环流突变

用１９８０—１９８６年的ＥＣＭＷＦ资料分析了南海季风爆发前后大气环流突变的平均特征。结果表明：南海季风的爆发一般发生在５月１０日前后，大气环流出现一次明显突变──高空南亚高压由１０—１５°Ｎ骤然北跳到１５—２０°Ｎ，南海北部西风转为东风；低空南海北部及附近地区西南风迅速加强并向东扩展，而中纬地区的偏北风也相应加强南压，青藏高原东南部到中国长江中下游一带为温度、湿度梯度大值区；中国西南地区出现低压环流。同时，青藏高原东南部及中国东部平原地区对流层大气发生急速增暖，大气热源和水汽汇明显增强。在南海季风爆发后南海北部大气热源亦显著增强，但比风场的突变落后５—１０天，而西沙海温的变化与季风爆发却比较一致。另外，地形对大气热源的分布有一定的影响，青藏高原东南坡的加热对南海季风的爆发可能比较重要。     

FIRST TRANSITION OF THE CIRCULATIONS IN ASIA AROUND MID－MAY FROM 7－YEAR MEAN ECMWF DATA

The time evolution of the general circulation over the South China Sea and surrounding areas during the period from April to June is studied using ECMWF data of 1980-1986. The first transition from the second (6-10 May ) to the third (11-15 May ) pentads is characterized by the distinct change of low-level (850 hpa ) winds from southeasterlies to southwesterlies along 15°N over the South China Sea, and by the sudden movement of the center of South Asian high in the upper troposphere (200 hpa ) from 10-15°N to 15-20°N over Southeast Asia. Corresponding to the abrupt change in circulations, the gradients of the temperature and humidity intensity along latitudes center on 30°N over East Asia at 850 hpa. The time sequence of the 850- 200 hpa layer thickness shows that the layer-mean temperature over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau-East China Plain region increases abruptly at the same time. The corresponding sudden increase of the vertically integrated heat source over the warming areas reveals that the heat source plays an evident role in the drastic changes. The time series of over the northern part of the South China Sea shows that the drastic increase of the areamean is also found but it is 5-10 days late than the change of corresponding wind fields. The time series of Xisha SST shows a continuous increase to about 29. 5°until May 10 when the abrupt changes in circulation occur.     

1998年东亚夏季风过程的数值模拟(英文)

利用改进的九层 Ｐ－σ模式和 １９９８年南海季风试验从 ５月 １日到 ８月３１日共 １２３天的再分析资料对该年的东亚夏季风进行模拟,发现基本的大气环流形势（南亚高压和西太平洋副高）均能模拟出来,但南亚高压模拟偏强,西太平洋副高模拟偏弱。由时间相关系数分析可以发现,该模式对于短期气候模拟（约２个月）效果较好,对于长期积分,则气候飘移较明显;由空间相关系数分析发现,模拟的较差区域位于青藏高原及其相邻的中南半岛西北部等地区。降水的模拟是较差的,五、六月份能模拟出雨带的大致移动,七、八月份模拟的降水明显较观测场偏北。由敏感性试验的分析结果发现,嵌套边界条件的改善对于降水的模拟影响较大。     

大气环流的季节突变与季风的建立II·个别年份南海夏季风的情况

将流的标准化变差度概念应用到各年南海夏季风建立研究中去,并用其作为大气环流调整的客观定量指标。用该指标定义的南海夏季风建立的预兆日期与用传统天气气候学方法确定的南海夏季风的来临日期,在绝大多数具体年份两者均很接近,故可作南海夏季风建立的先兆指标。但有一些年份,南海季风的建立不伴随着低空环流的突变过程,两种方法都可能不准确,可靠的方法也许是用场相似度作指标。此外,南海夏季风建立前,对流层顶和平流层下层就出现了环流调整,该调整为南海夏季风建立打下基础,而南海夏季风爆发则表现为低空环流的大调整。南海夏季风的爆发是高、低空全球大气环流发生显著调整的结果,并非限于南海范围局部,南海夏季风建立不能看作是发生在南海的局部现象。     

我国低纬高原地区初夏强降水天气研究II·2005与2001年5月云南旱涝成因的对比分析

2001年和2005年的5月云南分别出现了严重的洪涝和干旱天气。通过分析研究表明,这两年在大尺度环流形势、季风爆发的早晚和强弱以及ENSO背景的影响等方面都有着显著的不同。2001年5月对流层中层的东亚槽位置偏西且强度偏强,同时南支槽稳定维持且较强,致使冷暖空气易于在云南地区交汇,这可能是在该地区产生较强降水的主要环流形势,而2005年5月东亚槽位置偏东,南支槽较弱,致使云南地区几乎没有水汽来源和缺乏冷暖空气的交汇,这是产生干旱的主要环流形势;同时南海季风爆发的早晚和强弱与云南5月降水也有着较好的关系,2001年5月南海季风爆发偏早且强度偏强,而2005年5月南海季风爆发偏晚且强度偏弱,这两年5月的降水差异较大;对水汽分布的分析还表明,2001年5月云南地区为水汽辐合区,且较常年平均偏大,水汽通量为西南向,且强度较强。而2005年5月云南为水汽辐散区,孟加拉湾的水汽向东进入南海,云南地区非常干燥;从ENSO大背景对其影响的分析可知,2001年5月的洪涝和2005年5月的干旱与这两年的前期海温变化似乎也存在一定的联系。     

猪野泽记录的季风边缘区全新世中期 气候环境演化历史*

通过季风边缘区石羊河古终端湖猪野泽QTL剖面年代学及沉积物粒度、碳酸盐、有机碳、碳氮比和有机质稳定同位素等多项气候代用指标的综合分析,建立了季风边缘区9~3cal.kaB.P. 的古气候演化序列。结果表明,9cal.kaB.P. 到7.8cal.kaB.P. 期间,流域的水分条件和温度逐渐上升,植被状况好转,此时气候逐渐转暖湿;而在7.8~7.5cal.kaB.P. 出现了显著的百年尺度的干旱事件,沉积物主要以砂质沉积为主,此时湖泊生产力显著下降;全新世期间最为暖湿的气候适宜期出现在7.5~5.0cal.kaB.P.;约5.0cal.kaB.P. 以来,该区域出现了较为明显的干旱化趋势。另外,对猪野泽地区的白碱湖的湖泊地貌学和年代学研究表明该区域在7.5~5.0cal.kaB.P. 出现了3次高湖面,并且湖岸堤时序变化指示了全新世后半期湖泊逐渐退缩的过程进而指示该区域出现了显著的干旱化趋势。     

末次冰期东亚季风快速波动的模式与成因

通过对位于东亚季风区中东部与西部边缘的两个高分辨率黄土剖面记录的对比研究，发现它们不仅捕捉到了20个Dansgaard Oeschger事件与6个Heinrich事件，而且黄土记录与GRIP冰芯记录的这些快速气候波动基本上是同步的。暗示在整个末次冰期，东亚季风气候同样存在千年—百年尺度上的快速波动。所不同的是，西面的沙沟剖面对这些快速气候波动的反应比东面的王官剖面敏感。结合末次冰期中国黄土记录的先前研究结果，我们发现，自西向东Dansgaard Oeschger旋回的幅度逐渐变小，推测这主要是由西风与东亚夏季风共同作用所造成的。     

Link between convection and meridional gradient of sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal

We use daily satellite estimates of sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall during 1998–2005 to show that onset of convection over the central Bay of Bengal (88–92°E, 14–18°N) during the core summer monsoon (mid-May to September) is linked to the meridional gradient of SST in the bay. The SST gradient was computed between two boxes in the northern (88–92°E, 18–22°N) and southern (82–88°E, 4–8°N) bay; the latter is the area of the cold tongue in the bay linked to the Summer Monsoon Current. Convection over central bay followed the SST difference between the northern and southern bay (ΔT) exceeding 0.75°C in 28 cases. There was no instance of ΔT exceeding this threshold without a burst in convection. There were, however, five instances of convection occurring without this SST gradient. Long rainfall events (events lasting more than a week) were associated with an SST event (ΔT ≥ 0.75°C); rainfall events tended to be short when not associated with an SST event. The SST gradient was important for the onset of convection, but not for its persistence: convection often persisted for several days even after the SST gradient weakened. The lag between ΔT exceeding 0.75°C and the onset of convection was 0–18 days, but the lag histogram peaked at one week. In 75% of the 28 cases, convection occurred within a week of ΔT exceeding the threshold of 0.75°C. The northern bay SST, T _N , contributed more to ΔT, but it was a weaker criterion for convection than the SST gradient. A sensitivity analysis showed that the corresponding threshold for T _N was 29°C. We hypothesise that the excess heating (∼1°C above the threshold for deep convection) required in the northern bay to trigger convection is because this excess in SST is what is required to establish the critical SST gradient.     

Potential impacts of aerosol–land–atmosphere interactions on the Indian monsoonal rainfall characteristics

Aerosols can affect the cloud-radiation feedback and the precipitation over the Indian monsoon region. In this paper, we propose that another pathway by which aerosols can modulate the multi-scale aspect of Indian monsoons is by altering the land–atmosphere interactions. The nonlinear feedbacks due to aerosol/diffuse radiation on coupled interactions over the Indian monsoon region are studied by: (1) reviewing recent field measurements and modeling studies, (2) analyzing the MODIS and AERONET aerosol optical depth datasets, and (3) diagnosing the results from sensitivity experiments using a mesoscale modeling system. The results of this study suggest that the large magnitude of aerosol loading and its impact on land–atmosphere interactions can significantly influence the mesoscale monsoonal characteristics in the Indo-Ganges Basin.     

Late Quaternary clay minerals off Middle Vietnam in the western South China Sea: Implications for source analysis and East Asian monsoon evolution

High-resolution clay mineral records combined with oxygen isotopic stratigraphy over the past 450 ka during late Quaternary from Core MD05-2901 off Middle Vietnam in the western South China Sea are re-ported to reconstruct a history of East Asian monsoon evolution. Variations in Illite, chlorite, and kaolinite contents indicate a strong glacial-interglacial cyclicity, while changes in smectite content present a higher frequency cyclicity. The provenance analysis indicates a mixture of individual clay minerals from various sources surrounding the South China Sea. Smectite derived mainly from the Sunda shelf and its major source area of the Indonesian islands. Illite and chlorite originated mainly from the Mekong and Red rivers. Kaolinite was provided mainly by the Pearl River. Spectral analysis of the kaolin-ite/(illite chlorite) ratio displays a strong eccentricity period of 100 ka, implying the ice sheet-forced win-ter monsoon evolution; whereas higher frequency changes in the smectite content show an ice sheet-forced obliquity period of 41 ka, and precession periods of 23 and 19 ka and a semi-precession period of 13 ka as well, implying the tropical-forced summer monsoon evolution. The winter monsoon evolution is generally in coherence with the glacial-interglacial cyclicity, with intensified winter monsoon winds during glacials and weakened winter monsoon winds during interglacials; whereas the summer monsoon evolution provides an almost linear response to the summer insolation of low latitude in the Northern Hemisphere, with strengthened summer monsoon during higher insolation and weakened summer monsoon during lower insolation. The result suggests that the high-latitude ice sheet and low-latitude tropical factor could drive the late Quaternary evolution of East Asian winter and summer monsoons, respectively, implying their diplex and self-contained forcing mechanism.