顾及大气角动量的Prophet-VAR日长变化预报方法

针对日长变化参数序列中蕴含的复杂非线性特征会严重影响其预报精度的问题,同时为探讨引入大气角动量序列是否有助于提升预报精度,提出一种Prophet拟合外推联合向量自回归(vector autoregression,VAR)残差补偿的组合模型用于日长预报.选用2008～2020年的日长变化参数序列进行实验,同时设计不顾及大...     

雷暴大风过程中对流层中低层动量通量和动能通量输送特征研究

2014年5月31日北京发生一次雷暴大风过程。以雷达资料同化结果为初始场,对此次过程进行高分辨率数值模拟。采用非静力平衡和非地转平衡的经向动量方程和质量权重动能方程,利用模拟资料,对雷暴大风过程中经向动量和质量权重动能进行收支分析,以此来研究雷暴过程中对流层中低层动量通量和动能通量输送特征,讨论地面大风的可能成因。分析结果表明,在对流层中低层,经向动量通量散度是影响经向动量局地变化的主要强迫项。雷暴系统后部的入流把中低层的经向动量倾斜向下输送,系统前部对流云区中低层的下沉气流也向下输送经向动量。这两支下传动量通量先后与近地面经向动量的水平通量汇合,向系统前沿输送经向动量。在北京西北部地形阻挡作用下,经向动量通量在系统前端近地面辐合,促进那里的经向动量局地增长,有利于增强那里的南风。质量动能收支的特征与经向动量收支类似,在近地面层质量动能的局地变化主要是由质量动能通量散度引起的。系统后部入流把中层质量动能向下传输到近地面层,然后与近地面质量动能的水平通量汇合,向系统前沿输送质量动能。相对来说,近地面层经向动量和质量动能的水平通量比下传通量更重要,这主要与低层较强的东南急流有关。     

寒潮过程中风浪对黄海海气热量通量和动量通量影响研究

采用2009—2013年CFSR(Climate Forecast System Reanalysis)大气和海洋再分析资料对黄海海气间热量通量和动量通量的特征进行统计分析,并通过FVCOMSWAVE浪流耦合模式对典型寒潮过程中风浪的影响效果进行模拟研究与对比分析。统计结果显示,通量受海表大风、海气温差及海洋环流等因子影响,秋冬季节强烈,春夏季节相对较弱,在寒潮活跃的冷季该海域的海流处于弱流期,风浪对海面通量的作用明显增强。海温特征也显示冷季的不稳定性显著强于暖季,因此该海域冷季具有更强的海气热量通量。沿岸站点的比较显示,南部吕泗站面向更开阔的东海海域,其平均波高高出北部20%左右。这与沿海南部通量强于北部特征对应。数值模拟显示,在寒潮过程中,海气界面热量通量和动量通量输送比多年月平均状态显著增强,动量通量增大1~5倍,热量通量增大1~6倍。寒潮过程入海冷锋走向、强度、移动方向显著影响海面热量通量和动量通量大值区的分布。偏北路寒潮纬向型冷锋入海,其强度东部大于西部,造成通量大值区形成在黄海东北部,而偏西路寒潮经向型冷锋入海,其强度南部大于北部,造成通量大值区形成在黄海南部。同时偏北路径寒潮强度大于偏西路径,海气动量通量响应较偏西路径强约25%,热量通量强约50%。耦合风浪作用的模拟显示,海气间热量通量和动量通量明显增大,对不同强度风浪,浪高增加1.5倍,动量通量最大值增大约2倍,热量通量增大10~160 W/m2;浪高减弱至0.5倍,动量通量最大值则减弱约40%,热量通量减小10~55 W/m2。冷锋及其驱动的风浪强烈影响区域海气通量时空特征。     

活动双星AR Lac的周期研究

用Ｋａｌｉｍｅｒｉｓ等人提出的分析周期新方法对ＲＳＣＶｎ型双星系统ＡＲＬａｃ的ＯＣ曲线进行分析,结果表明这颗食双星的轨道周期在长期减小的同时也含有周期为４７年、振幅为１．５６×１０－５天的周期性变化．对引起轨道周期变化（非周期性变化和周期性变化）的各种物理机制进行了分析研究,并求出了它们的关键性物理参量．研究表明该系统轨道周期的变化可能是由于次子星周期性的磁场活动和由磁滞引起的角动量损失引起     

Contribution of new AAM data source to δLOD excitation

Data sets of the changes of the length of day (ΔLOD) measured by space geodetic techniques and of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) derived from global meteorological data by the National Meteorological Center (NMC) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) are used to reanalyze and study the excitations of ΔLOD, and to examine and compare the contribution of each AAM series to ΔLOD. The main results are as follows. 1. The AAM reanalyzed with the assimilated global meteorological data by NCEP/NCAR are more accurate and have lower noise than the original AAM derived by NMC. The NCEP/NCAR-based AAM is more consistent with the changes of the length-of-day series. 2. The NCEP reanalysed AAM data may better explain the non-tidal LOD variations on intraseasonal to interannual time scales, especially on the quasi-biennial time scale. The atmosphere cannot, however, explain all LOD variations; other excitation sources are possible. 3. The effects of atmosphere on the estimated values of tides for ΔLOD components up to a month are weak. The preliminary results of the annual and semiannual tides can be estimated after removing the effects of atmosphere from ΔLOD. Received: 27 May 1998 / Accepted: 22 March 1999     

莱州湾夏季环流垂向结构及其影响机制的研究

完善莱州湾三维环流结构,对进一步认识莱州湾海域的物质输运和生态环境保护具有重要科学意义,但前人对于莱州湾环流三维结构的研究相对较少。本文基于一套高分辨率的海洋数值模式,从三维角度研究了莱州湾夏季8月份环流的气候态特征及其影响机制。数值研究表明,莱州湾夏季环流垂向结构呈现双层环流特征,其中在跨等深线方向,环流的双层结构环流特征比较显著且存在显著的密度锋面结构。动量诊断的结果进一步表明,这种双层结构环流的形成与底层密度锋面所导致的斜压梯度力密切相关。此外,通过量化温盐场对于密度锋面的贡献,本文证实了温度梯度是莱州湾顶的密度锋面的主要影响因素,其对斜压梯度力的贡献占比达到99%,而盐度梯度对于莱州湾中部区域的密度锋面十分重要,对斜压梯度力的贡献占比达到58%,这与夏季黄河所带来的淡水通量密切相关。     

Measuring drop size distribution and kinetic energy of rainfall using a force transducer

The relatively high cost of commercially available raindrop spectrometers and disdrometers has inhibited detailed and intensive research on drop size distribution, kinetic energy and momentum of rainfall which are important for understanding and modelling soil erosion caused by raindrop detachment. In this study, an approach to find the drop size distribution, momentum and kinetic energy of rainfall using a relatively inexpensive device that uses a piezoelectric force transducer for sensing raindrop impact response is introduced. The instrument continuously and automatically records, on a time‐scale, the amplitude of electrical pulses produced by the impact of raindrops on the surface of the transducer. The size distribution of the raindrops and their respective kinetic energy are calculated by analysing the number and amplitude of pulses recorded, and from the measured volume of total rainfall using a calibration curve. Simultaneous measurements of the instrument, a rain gauge and a dye‐stain method were used to assess the performance of the instrument. Test results from natural and simulated rainfalls are presented. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

FluBiDi – a model to estimate flood based on runoff: validation using extreme and natural basin conditions

FluBiDi is a two-dimensional model created to simulate real events that can take days and months, as well as short events (minutes or hours) and inclusive laboratory tests. To verify the robustness of FluBiDi, it was tested using a previous study with both designed and real digital elevation models. The results highlight good agreement between the models (i.e. Mike Flood, SOBEK, ISIS 2D, and others) tested and FluBiDi (around 90% for a specific instant and 95% for the complete time simulation). In the simulated hydrographs, the discharge peak value, time to peak, and water level results were accurate, reproducing them with an error of less than 5%. The velocity differences observed in a couple of tests in FluBiDi were associated with very short periods of time (seconds). However, FluBiDi is highly accurate for simulating floods under real topographical conditions with differences of around 2 cm when water depth is around 150 cm. The average water depth and velocities are precise, and the model describes with high accuracy the pattern and extent of floods. FluBiDi has the capability to be adjusted to different types of events and only requires limited input data.     

Ekman边界层动力学的理论研究

大气边界层及其与自由大气之间的相互作用具有明显的非线性特征,而这些特征是经典Ekman理论所不能描述的,因此,发展中等复杂程度(介于完全模式与经典Ekman模型之间)的大气边界层动力学模式,简称中间模式,对人们从理论上认识大气边界层动力学过程的非线性特征具有重要意义。本文对目前最具代表性的几个中间边界层模型:地转动量近似边界层模型、Ekman动量近似边界层模型以及弱非线性边界层模型进行了总结和分析,阐述了Ekman层主要动力学特征。通过分析上述各模型的理论框架,揭示了各模型的物理意义及其在描述Ekman边界层基本动力特征上的优点和局限性,并指出尽管在细节定量描述上有差异,但各中间模型对Ekman层动力学特征的定性描述具有很好的一致性。对于这些Ekman边界层近似理论模型的进一步应用问题,主要回顾和总结了利用上述模型探讨地形边界层结构、大气锋生过程、低层锋面结构和环流以及边界层日变化、低空急流形成等动力学问题的研究,并对这些研究所揭示的Ekman层动力学特征及其对自由大气低层运动的影响进行了分析,结果表明,这些Ekman边界层近似模型可以较好地揭示大气边界层动力学特征,在大气边界层动力学及其与自由大气相互作用的研究上具有重要价值。另外,还对目前Ekman边界层理论研究中存在的问题进行了一些分析,提出了有待进一步研究的科学问题。     

The effects of blade twist and nacelle shape on the performance of horizontal axis tidal current turbines

The paper presents the effects of blade twist and nacelle shape on the performance of horizontal axis tidal current turbines using both analytical and numerical methods. Firstly, in the hydrodynamic design procedure, the optimal profiles of untwisted and twisted blades and their predicted theoretical turbine performance are obtained using the genetic algorithm method. Although both blade profiles produce desired rated rotational speed, the twisted blade achieves higher power and thrust performance. Secondly, numerical simulation is performed using sliding mesh technique to mimic rotating turbine in ANSYS FLUENT to validate the analytical results. The Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approximation of the turbulence parameters is applied to obtain the flow field around the turbine. It is found that power and axial thrust force from BEMT (Blade Element Momentum Theory) method are under-predicted by 2% and 8% respectively, compared with numerical results. Afterwards, the downstream wake field of the turbine is investigated with two different nacelle shapes. It is found that the rotor performance is not significantly affected by the different nacelle shapes. However, the structural turbulence caused by the conventional nacelle is stronger than that by the NACA-profiled shape, and the former can cause detrimental effect on the performance of the downstream turbines in tidal farms.