基于地质记录用时域组合模型预测气候变化趋势的初步研究

用时域分析组合模型建立了１００万年来６０°Ｎ６月份太阳辐射量时间序列、宝鸡黄土粒度时间序列、渭南夏季风指数时间序列的动态模型．研究结果表明,时域分析组合模型较好地提取了时间序列的信息,得到的几个显著周期Ｔ＝１３３,１００,８９,４１,２３,１９ｋａ,与地球轨道三要素的变化周期接近．用组合模型拟合实测数据,精度是高的;用其预测未来气候替代性指标时间序列的变化情况,发现未来气候有向干冷方向发展的趋势．时域分析组合模型为研究气候变化趋势提供了一种定量分析、预测的方法．     

贵州施秉白云岩溶蚀特性及孔隙特征实验研究

以贵州施秉白云岩为研究对象,从宏观和微观角度分析白云岩的溶蚀特性及孔隙特征,结果显示:(1)在众多影响施秉喀斯特发育的因素中,矿物成分是最基本的内因,水是最关键的外因,孔隙结构起辅助作用。(2)极细晶白云岩的单位表面积溶蚀量一般大于细晶白云岩的,在晶粒相同的情况下,白云岩的溶蚀量与Ca O和Mg O的含量分别成正比,且Mg O的含量影响较Ca O大。(3)施秉白云岩溶蚀速率不仅受岩石矿物颗粒粒径大小的控制,还受岩石内部孔隙结构特征的影响,颗粒粒径越大,孔隙度越高,连通性越好,越有利于水溶液进入,溶蚀量也就越大。(4)施秉白云岩的溶蚀特性是多种因素综合作用的结果,必须把各个因素分离开来,从宏观和微观角度逐个作详细的分析研究,然后综合起来,才能对喀斯特发育规律有更深入的了解。     

Compositional Zoning of the Bishop Tuff

Compositional data for >400 pumice clasts, organized accordingto eruptive sequence, crystal content, and texture, providenew perspectives on eruption and pre-eruptive evolution of the>600 km³ of zoned rhyolitic magma ejected as the Bishop Tuffduring formation of Long Valley caldera. Proportions and compositionsof different pumice types are given for each ignimbrite packageand for the intercalated plinian pumice-fall layers that eruptedsynchronously. Although withdrawal of the zoned magma was lesssystematic than previously realized, the overall sequence displaystrends toward greater proportions of less evolved pumice, morecrystals (0·5–24 wt %), and higher FeTi-oxide temperatures(714–818°C). No significant hiatus took place duringthe 6 day eruption of the Bishop Tuff, nearly all of which issuedfrom an integrated, zoned, unitary reservoir. Shortly beforeeruption, however, the zoned melt-dominant portion of the chamberwas invaded by batches of disparate lower-silica rhyolite magma,poorer in crystals than most of the resident magma but slightlyhotter and richer in Ba, Sr, and Ti. Interaction with residentmagma at the deepest levels tapped promoted growth of Ti-richrims on quartz, Ba-rich rims on sanidine, and entrapment ofnear-rim melt inclusions relatively enriched in Ba and CO₂.Varied amounts of mingling, even in higher parts of the chamber,led to the dark gray and swirly crystal-poor pumices sparselypresent in all ash-flow packages. As shown by FeTi-oxide geothermometry,the zoned rhyolitic chamber was hottest where crystal-richest,rendering any model of solidification fronts at the walls orroof unlikely. The main compositional gradient (75–195ppm Rb; 0·8–2·2 ppm Ta; 71–154 ppmZr; 0·40–1·73% FeO*) existed in the melt,prior to crystallization of the phenocryst suite observed, whichincluded zircon as much as 100 kyr older than the eruption.The compositions of crystals, though themselves largely unzoned,generally reflect magma temperature and the bulk compositionalgradient, implying both that few crystals settled or were transportedfar and that the observed crystals contributed little to establishingthat gradient. Upward increases in aqueous gas and dissolvedwater, combined with the adiabatic gradient (for the 5 km depthrange tapped) and the roofward decline in liquidus temperatureof the zoned melt, prevented significant crystallization againstthe roof, consistent with dominance of crystal-poor magma earlyin the eruption and lack of any roof-rind fragments among theBishop ejecta, before or after onset of caldera collapse. Amodel of secular incremental zoning is advanced wherein numerousbatches of crystal-poor melt were released from a mush zone(many kilometers thick) that floored the accumulating rhyoliticmelt-rich body. Each batch rose to its own appropriate levelin the melt-buoyancy gradient, which was self-sustaining againstwholesale convective re-homogenization, while the thick mushzone below buffered it against disruption by the deeper (non-rhyolitic)recharge that augmented the mush zone and thermally sustainedthe whole magma chamber. Crystal–melt fractionation wasthe dominant zoning process, but it took place not principallyin the shallow melt-rich body but mostly in the pluton-scalemush zone before and during batchwise melt extraction. KEY WORDS: Bishop Tuff; ignimbrite; magma zonation; mush model; rhyolite     

利用ARC/INFO进行三维地形模型的建立、处理和动态模拟

介绍了利用 ARC/ INFO建立三维地形模型的方法 ,以及利用其新版本的部分新功能处理三维地形模型、进行动态模拟的方法 ,与以往处理三维模型必须借助外部三维图形开发软件包的方法相比 ,具有高速、灵活、可视性强、支持强大分析功能等优点。形成的三维模型可随时与 ARC/ INFO的其它数据模型交换信息 ,与外部进程实时通讯 ,为使用者提供了二维分析工具所不能提供的信息 ,为开发视景仿真系统等与表面分析、立体显示有关的应用系统提供了强有力的支持。     

W UMa型相接双星的理论研究

本文回顾了W UMa型相接双星观测和理论研究的历史。总结了W UMa型相接双星观测特性和理论研究的成果。最后讨论了W UMa型相接双星理论模型研究中存在的问题及其解决这些问题的一些可行方法。     

Inverse Analysis of Deep Excavation Using Differential Evolution Algorithm

This paper presents the applications of the differential evolution (DE) algorithm in back analysis of soil parameters for deep excavation problems. A computer code, named Python‐based DE, is developed and incorporated into the commercial finite element software ABAQUS, with a parallel computing technique to run an FE analysis for all trail vectors of one generation in DE in multiple cores of a cluster, which dramatically reduces the computational time. A synthetic case and a well‐instrumented real case, that is, the Taipei National Enterprise Center (TNEC) project, are used to demonstrate the capability of the proposed back‐analysis procedure. Results show that multiple soil parameters are well identified by back analysis using a DE optimization algorithm for highly nonlinear problems. For the synthetic excavation case, the back‐analyzed parameters are basically identical to the input parameters that are used to generate synthetic response of wall deflection. For the TNEC case with a total of nine parameters to be back analyzed, the relative errors of wall deflection for the last three stages are 2.2, 1.1, and 1.0%, respectively. Robustness of the back‐estimated parameters is further illustrated by a forward prediction. The wall deflection in the subsequent stages can be satisfactorily predicted using the back‐analyzed soil parameters at early stages. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近50年气候变化对滦河上游径流的影响

为了解近50年滦河上游气温和降水气候的变化特征、趋势及其对该流域径流量的影响,利用1956-2009年滦河上游的实测气温、降水量和径流深资料,分析了该流域气温、降水和径流深的年均和季度变化的时间序列,并建立了该流域气候变化对径流影响的复相关回归模型。结果表明,年径流深随着年降水量的减少而减少,随着年平均气温的升高而减少;春、夏和秋季的径流深随着同期降水量和气温的变化趋势与年际变化趋势基本一致,但冬季径流深则相反,而且其变化幅度非常小。     

用经验模型判断能力验证统计分析结果的合理性

能力验证是检测实验室识别与同行差异的一种途径,但中国合格评定国家认可委员会( CNAS)在组织能力验证时发现由于种种原因,有些实验室并不能秉承诚信的原则参加能力验证活动,导致统计分析结果“失真”.如何甄别这种情况,确保所有参加CNAS能力验证活动的实验室都获得公平的评价,这是CNAS亟待解决的问题.本文在用国内文献数据对经验模型进行修正的基础上,提出用上报数据目标标准偏差(或稳健标准偏差,sR)与基于经验模型的计算值之比(H值)是否小于0.5作为判据来审核上报数据统计分析结果的合理性.对13套能力验证数据分析表明:其中10套上报数据sR正常,3套数据存在问题.当目标标准偏差偏小,H＜0.5时,建议采用同样是稳健统计方法的迭代法代替四分位法来计算目标标准偏差(sR),或用经验模型计算结果代替实验值计算Z值.通过验证表明,借助Horwitz经验模型可以判断能力验证数据统计分析结果的合理性,并能有效地识别并防止由于某种原因导致对能力验证结果评价失效的情况.     

基于能量原理的Park & Ang损伤模型简化计算方法

Park＆Ang损伤模型综合考虑了结构最大变形和累积滞回耗能的耦合作用,具有一定的先进性,被国内外研究者广泛采用;但由于该模型中参数的计算困难,尤其涉及结构滞回耗能的计算问题时,该模型的应用受到了一定的限制;文中从能量的关系入手,寻找出结构滞回耗能与结构最大位移的关系,利用该关系可方便求解出结构的滞回耗能,从而为该模型的计算提供了一种简便方法;最后,例题分析证明本文的方法简便可行,计算效率高。     

基于"山西2015速度模型"的定位方法对比研究

为了确定山西台网基于“山西2015速度模型”的相对固定的定位方法,选择2010~2016年最大空隙角小于45°、参与定位台站数大于40的103个地震事件,分别采用单纯形法、Hypo2000、Hyposat结合PTD等3种方法重新测定。结果显示,单纯形法和Hyposat结合PTD测定的残差以及网缘地震的震中距两方面均优于Hypo2000;在震源深度方面,Hyposat结合PTD的结果较为可信。综合分析认为,基于“山西2015速度模型”定位地震时,山西台网应固定使用Hyposat结合PTD的方法。