Flood hazard delineation combining geomorphological and hydrological methods: an example in the Northern Iberian Peninsula

Flood mapping requires the combination and integration of geomorphological and hydrological-hydraulic methods; however, despite this, there is very little scientific literature that compares and validates both methods. Two types of analysis are addressed in the present article. On the one hand, maps of flood plains have been elaborated using geomorphological evidence and historical flood data in the mountainous area of northwestern Spain, covering an area of more then 232 km² of floodplains. On the other hand, a hydrometeorological model has been developed (Clark semidistributed unit hydrograph) in the Sarria River basin (155 km², NW Spain). This basin is not gauged, hence the model was subjected to a goodness-of-fit test of its parameter (curve number) by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The peak flows obtained by means of the hydrological model were used for hydraulic modeling (one-phase, one-dimensional and steady flow) in a 4 km² urban stretch of the river bed. The delineation of surface areas affected by floods since 1918, as well as those analyzed subsequent to the geomorphological study, reveals a high degree of reliability in the delineation of the flooded areas with frequent recurrence intervals (<50 years). If we compare these flooded surface areas with the estimate obtained by the hydrological-hydraulic method we can see that the latter method overestimates the extent of the surface water by 144% for very frequent recurrence intervals (>10 years) and underestimates it as the recurrence interval increases, by up to 80% less floodplain for exceptional events (>500 years). Finally, a management map is put forth combining the most reliable results available by integrating both methods. Originally presented at the Sixth International Conference on Geomorphology.     

Numerical modeling of tide-surge interaction along Orissa coast of India

The Orissa coast of India is one of the most vulnerable regions of extreme sea levels associated with severe tropical cyclones. There was extensive loss of life and property due to the October 1999 super cyclone, which devastated large part of the Orissa coast. The shallow nature of the head bay, presence of a large number of deltas formed by major rivers of Orissa such as Mahanadi and Dhamra, and high tidal range are responsible for storm surge flooding in the region. Specifically, rising and falling tidal phases influence the height, duration, and arrival time of peak surge along the coast. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the tide-surge interaction during the 1999 Orissa cyclone by using nonlinear vertically integrated numerical models. The pure tidal solution for the head bay region of the Bay of Bengal provides the initial condition for the fine resolution nested grid Orissa model. However, the feedback from the Orissa model does not affect the head bay model as the study provides a one-way interaction. Numerical experiments are performed to study the tide-surge interaction by considering various relative phases of the tidal waves with the surge-wave produced by 1999 Orissa cyclone. The comparison, although utilizing only the limited estimates of tidal data, appears adequate to assert that the principal features are reproduced correctly.     

Numerical estimation of REV and permeability tensor for fractured rock masses by composite element method

The Monte Carlo method is used to generate parent stochastic discrete fracture network, from which a series of fractured rock samples of different sizes and orientations are extracted. The fracture network combined with a regular grid forms composite element mesh of the fractured rock sample, in which each composite element is composed of sub‐elements incised by fracture segments. The composite element method (CEM) for the seepage is implemented to obtain the nodal hydraulic potential as well as the seepage flow rates through the fractured rock samples. The application of CEM enables a large quantity of stochastic tests for the fractured rock samples because the pre‐process is facilitated greatly. By changing the sizes and orientations of the samples, the analysis of the seepage characteristics is realized to evaluate the variation of the permeability components, the existence of the permeability tensor and the representative element volume. The feasibility and effectiveness are illustrated in a numerical example. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

东营凹陷北部沙河街组四段深部储层多重成岩环境及演化模式

主要通过薄片鉴定、扫描电镜观察、包裹体分析、粘土矿物分析、镜质体反射率测试和岩心物性分析等手段,结合构造发育史和有机质热演化史等研究成果,以揭示东营凹陷北带古近系深部碎屑岩储层成岩环境及演化模式为目的展开研究工作。结果表明:东营凹陷北带古近系深部碎屑岩储层存在酸性、碱性和酸性碱性交替等多重成岩环境。酸性成岩环境以碳酸盐矿物溶解、长石溶解蚀变为高岭石并伴生石英次生加大等为标志,碱性成岩环境以石英质颗粒及其次生加大边溶解、长石次生加大和晚期碳酸盐矿物沉淀为标志。研究区古近系深部碎屑岩储层成岩环境由浅至深大致经历了碱性—酸性—酸性碱性交替(局部碱性较强)—碱性—弱碱性的演化过程,并建立了沙河街组四段的成岩演化和储层改造模式。     

Ground motion estimation during the Kashmir earthquake of 8th October 2005

In this article, analytical methods have been used to estimate ground motion during the 8 October 2005, Kashmir earthquake. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at several stations in the epicentral region have been estimated by empirical analytical source mechanism models. As an alternate analysis, PGA estimates have also been obtained using the stochastic finite fault seismological model. The estimated PGAs are compared with that obtained from damage values. A PGA contour map in the near-source region is provided. It is found that very near to the epicenter, PGA would have reached more than 1 g. It is demonstrated that empirical analytical models can be effectively used to estimate ground motion due to rupture of active faults.     

Implementation of reconstructed geomorphologic units in landslide susceptibility mapping: the Melen Gorge (NW Turkey)

In the international literature, although considerable amount of publications on the landslide susceptibility mapping exist, geomorphology as a conditioning factor is still used in limited number of studies. Considering this factor, the purpose of this article paper is to implement the geomorphologic parameters derived by reconstructed topography in landslide susceptibility mapping. According to the method employed in this study, terrain is generalized by the contours passed through the convex slopes of the valleys that were formed by fluvial erosion. Therefore, slope conditions before landsliding can be obtained. The reconstructed morphometric and geomorphologic units are taken into account as a conditioning parameter when assessing landslide susceptibility. Two different data, one of which is obtained from the reconstructed DEM, have been employed to produce two landslide susceptibility maps. The binary logistic regression is used to develop landslide susceptibility maps for the Melen Gorge in the Northwestern part of Turkey. Due to the high correct classification percentages and spatial effectiveness of the maps, the landslide susceptibility map comprised the reconstructed morphometric parameters exhibits a better performance than the other. Five different datasets are selected randomly to apply proper sampling strategy for training. As a consequence of the analyses, the most proper outcomes are obtained from the dataset of the reconstructed topographical parameters and geomorphologic units, and lithological variables that are implemented together. Correct classification percentage and root mean square error (RMSE) values of the validation dataset are calculated as 86.28% and 0.35, respectively. Prediction capacity of the different datasets reveal that the landslide susceptibility map obtained from the reconstructed parameters has a higher prediction capacity than the other. Moreover, the landslide susceptibility map obtained from the reconstructed parameters produces logical results.     

流域水文模型参数识别的现代优化方法研究进展

水文参数优化是水文模型发展中的一个重要部分,针对水循环过程模拟中的流域水文模型参数识别的复杂优化问题,回顾了水文模型优化算法的发展历程,对国内外水文模型参数识别算法的最新进展进行了阐述.介绍了模拟退火算法、遗传算法、SCE-UA、粒子群算法等常用算法的参数设定及一般流程,并对编码遗传算法、单纯形混合加速遗传算法和运用融合技术的几种遗传算法以及其它几种常用算法在新安江模型中的优化结果进行了比较,认为混合加速遗传算法是一种较好的方法.在系统研究现代优化算法与传统优化算法的基础上,建立各种优化算法的融合技术和法则可能是进一步提高参数优化算法性能的方向.     

滑坡体三维地质建模与可视化分析

针对滑坡地质研究的自身特点,提出了面向滑坡地质体三维建模的NURBS-BRep混合数据结构和地质结构单元实体构造技术.通过对滑坡基础地质数据的预处理、滑坡数字地形和滑动面的三维建模、地质结构面的系统构造、地质结构体的生成和显示,形成了一套完整的滑坡三维地质模型的构建方法.将该方法应用于某水库滑坡,建立了相应的三维滑坡地质模型,并基于此模型进行了三维剖切分析、数字钻孔、等值线生成、滑块自动剖分、滑坡失稳可视化动态模拟和滑坡体方量精确计算等一系列实用的可视化分析,为滑坡稳定性的准确计算和客观评价提供了有力的支持.     

基于Mindlin理论Winkler地基参数的Kalman滤波识别

提出了Winkler地基参数的Kalman滤波识别方法。引入Mindlin理论后,推导了Winkler地基上板的控制微分方程。利用Fourier变换,推求了Winkler地基上简支板的Fourier闭式解。推导了Winkler地基参数的Kalman滤波方程,研究了Winkler地基参数的Kalman滤波识别的具体计算步骤。研究表明,运用Kalman滤波理论进行Winkler地基参数的识别,能有效地估计Winkler地基参数;Winkler地基参数的滤波收敛速度和精度受地基参数初始值选取和位移实测资料的影响,且Kalman滤波理论也可用于其他地基模型地基参数的识别。     

Re-Os同位素对峨眉山大火成岩省成因制约的探讨

峨眉山大火成岩省（ELIP）主要由玄武岩、玄武质火山碎屑岩及少量的苦橄岩（包括越南的科马提岩）、长英质岩石以及层状岩体和岩墙组成,其物质来源直接关系到其成因是否与地幔柱活动有关。Re-Os同位素体系是地核、地幔和地壳物质的最佳示踪剂。前人对ELIP内的Re-Os同位素研究表明,低Ti玄武岩的Os含量为0．006&#215;10^-9-0．40010^-9,^187Os／^188Os初始值为0．1371～1．403,并提出其与地幔柱活动有关;而高Ti玄武岩的Os含量为0．00410^-9～0．56010^-9,^187Os／^188Os初始值为0．1271～5．19,认为起源于大陆岩石圈地幔或地幔柱上升过程中受到大量岩石圈地幔“混染”（xu JF et al．,2007）;科马提岩的0s含量为1．2410^-9～7．0010^-9,^187Os／^188Os初始值为0．1251～0．1261,苦橄岩的Os含量为0．3210^-9～2．32910^-9,^187Os／^188Os初始值为0．1233～0．1266,指示苦橄岩和科马提岩均来自亏损地幔源区（Hanski et al．,2004;陈雷等,2007）。本文利用Os含量最低、^187Os／^188Os最高的高Ti玄武岩作为地壳端员,用铁质陨石、原始上地幔（PUM）和亏损地幔（DMM）作为地核和各种地幔端员,分别做二元混合计算,结果显示绝大多数玄武岩和所有苦橄岩及科马提岩均落在地壳和DMM混合曲线附近,并且邻区特提斯洋地幔岩与DMM具有相近的Os含量和^187Os／^188Os组成,据此推测峨眉山火成岩的形成与特提斯洋的活动有关,主要受控于地壳和亏损地幔的相互作用。