Resilient Landscapes: The Reconstruction of Southeastern Connecticut Following the 1938 Hurricane

Following the 1938 hurricane that damaged much of the New England coast, New London, Connecticut, responded like most communities by leveraging federal and state funds to rebuild and augment engineered mitigation structures. Eighty years of subsequent storm experience, however, illustrates that a small number of nonstructural mitigation projects, especially private property acquisitions, have had significant long-term effects on New London's coastal resiliency, especially in the Ocean Beach neighborhood. Archival research identifies that these nonstructural mitigation projects were not initially intended to reduce hurricane or flooding risk but were aimed at removing structures determined to be public nuisances and reducing fire hazard. Therefore, New London's post-1938 mitigation experience underscores how community-scale mitigation planning following one disaster can greatly affect the outcome of future disasters. Analytically, New London's experience offers a compelling case study to critically compare two competing environmental mitigation approaches following the same disaster and to offer insight into the environmental legacies of both.     

舟曲三眼峪"8.8"特大泥石流灾害特征与风险减缓对策

舟曲"8.8"特大泥石流是我国有历史记载以来造成损失最大的一次泥石流灾害,如实地记录这次灾害的特点、形成条件及致灾因素,分析其发展趋势并提出风险减缓措施,对指导灾后重建和今后的研究都是十分必要的.以舟曲"8.8"泥石流中的三眼峪为对象,从泥石流分区特征、堆积特征以及其特征值等方面描述了泥石流灾害特征;从地形地貌、固体物...     

我国甲烷排放情景分析:IPAC模型结果

近期发布的IPCC第六次评估报告再次强调了短寿命期温室气体减排对温升减缓的作用。甲烷是最重要的短寿命期非CO₂温室气体。在各国提出各自新的减排目标之后,针对甲烷减排的行动方案也越来越多。甲烷减排正在成为下一阶段各国和全球合作的重点领域之一。本文在我国碳减排目标下的能源转型基础上,结合其他非能源活动的减排排放源的减排技术选择基础上,利用IPAC模型对未来甲烷的排放情景进行了分析。在模型设定的两个情景分析基础之上,研究发现,到2050年的能源转型可明显减少能源活动的甲烷排放,和2015年相比能源活动的排放可减少67％。和其他行业相比,能源部门的甲烷减排具有更好的协同性。如果考虑进一步减排甲烷,则需要在考虑其他大气污染物减排的基础上,可通过实现天然气的进一步减排来实现。同时其他部门的甲烷减排也具有很大潜力,低甲烷排放情景可以实现到2050年将甲烷排放减少到1 494万吨,和2015年相比全范围排放可减排58％。     

隔震结构的抗震分析

将结构物简化为多质点体系，考虑隔震支座的水平刚度、垂直刚度和转动刚度，按反应谱方法进行了高层剪力墙结构和砖结构抗震计算，结果表明，隔震结构可以大幅度地降低地震作用。     

从美国的企业防灾项目看我国企业防震减灾工作的发展

美国的"企业应急预备"项目致力于关注和指导企业的应急防御工作的开展,是美国国家公益防灾宣传项目——"应急预备"的扩展项目之一。自实施以来,它鼓励企业通过制订企业保护方案、加强与员工的沟通和保护企业资产来做好防灾准备,取得了较为显著的实施效果。该项目在充分发挥企业员工的能动作用、通过多种途径宣传防灾信息、注重企业间的应急合作等方面对我国企业的防震减灾工作具有积极的启示意义。     

黄河三大水患成因与危害研究

黄河流域生态环境脆弱,黄河水患灾害连年不断,所以,治理好黄河水患,利用好黄河水资源,建设好生态环境,任务十分艰巨。文章对黄河洪水、断流、水污染三大水患灾害的形成机制进行了全面分析,为黄河治理开发提供科学依据。     

山西煤炭资源开采诱发地面塌陷灾害的防治

叙述了山西省煤炭开采区地面塌陷的现状,确定出山西地面塌陷的系数为２３３５ｍ＾２,预测到２００２年山西全省的塌陷面积将达到２７００ｋｍ＾２,提出应对地面塌陷区进行综合防治和开发的建议。     

水稻田甲烷的减排方法研究及评价

通过对稻田甲烷排放多年的野外实验观测和对稻田甲烷排放控制因子的研究,总结出减少稻田甲烷排放的主要方法,对各种减排方法的减排效果和经济效益做了研究,并利用层次分析法对各种减排方法做了进一步的评价分析。现有的稻田甲烷减排方法主要有其他肥料代替传统的有机肥、种植低甲烷排放的水稻品种,以及稻田的灌水管理。适合中国国情的方法主要有杂交稻替代常规稻,沼渣肥替代纯有机肥。杂交稻替代常规稻的经济效益很显著,减少甲烷排放的同时能增加水稻的产量。沼渣肥替代有机肥的减排效果较好,社会效益和环境效益明显优于杂交稻替代常规稻。     

Research status of earthquake forecasting in hydraulicfracturing induced earthquakes

In the new types of industrial activities including unconventional energy extraction associated with shale gas and hot dry rock, gas reservoir operations, CO2 geological storage, undergoing research on induced earthquake forecasting has become one of the forward positions of current seismology. As for the intense actual demand, the immature research on induced earthquake forecasting has already been applied in pre-assessment of site safety and seismic hazard and risk management. This work will review systematically recent advances in earthquake forecasting induced by hydraulic fracturing during industrial production from four aspects: earthquake occurrence probability, maximum expected magnitude forecasting, seismic risk analysis for engineering and social applications and key scientific problems. In terms of earthquake occurrence probability, we introduce statistical forecasting models such as an improved ETAS and non-stationary ETAS and physical forecasting models such as Seismogenic Index (SI) and hydro-mechanism nucleation. Research on maximum expected magnitude forecasting has experienced four stages of linear relationship with net injection volume of fluid, power exponential relationship and physical forecasting regarding fault parameters. For seismic risk analysis, we focus on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and quantitative geological susceptibility model. Furthermore, this review is extended to key scientific problems that contain obtaining accurate fault scale and environmental stress state of reservoir, critical physical process of runaway rupture, complex mechanism of fault activation as well as physical mechanism and modeling of trailing effect. This work in understanding induced earthquake forecasting may contribute to unconventional energy development and production, seismic hazard mitigation, emergency management and scientific research as a reference.