基于浪潮组合的台风暴潮强度等级划分

为准确定位风暴的强弱及灾害的大小,文中提出了泊松-二维对数正态分布,并将其用于海岸地区台风暴潮致灾强度的长期预测。选取青岛地区建国以来所出现的主要台风暴潮作为观测资料,以水位和显著波高系列组成样本,进行了台风暴潮重现期的统计推算。提出了判别台风暴潮致灾强度的新标准。实例显示,新标准概念清楚,简单易行,适用于青岛地区台风暴潮的强度确定。基于新模式的风暴潮强度随机分析方法对我国其它海岸地区的防潮减灾具有参考意义。     

改性黏土法消除球形棕囊藻赤潮的现场实验与效果评估

球形棕囊藻是一种具有复杂异型生活史的有毒有害赤潮生物,近年来在我国近海频繁暴发成灾,形成的巨大囊体为国内外罕见。迄今还未见到有效消除囊体型球形棕囊藻赤潮的方法报道。本文通过海上围隔实验和现场赤潮消除工程跟踪监测,考察了喷洒改性黏土消除囊体型球形棕囊藻赤潮的可行性与效率,并分析了改性黏土法治理赤潮时对水体及沉积环境的可能影响。围隔实验结果表明,喷洒改性黏土可以有效消除水体中过量的微藻细胞,其中以少量多次喷洒方法的效果最好,生物量(chl a)去除率90%。在对2016年2月广西防城港附近海域球形棕囊藻赤潮消除时的跟踪监测结果表明,改性黏土法适用于工程化消除赤潮作业,能够快速消除水体中的大量球形棕囊藻囊体,随改性黏土絮凝体沉入海底的赤潮藻可以快速分解而失去活性。喷洒改性黏土对于赤潮水体的主要理化指标影响不显著,所监测的水体COD、pH和不同形态氮、磷、硅等生源要素浓度都在原有水质水平范围内波动。     

利马气候大会成果分析与展望

利马气候大会达成的《利马气候行动号令》明确了《联合国气候变化框架公约》所有原则,尤其是共同但有区别的责任原则适用于拟于2015年巴黎会议达成的新协议。会议还就“国家自主决定的贡献”等做出了决定。利马大会成果对2015年巴黎气候大会达成气候变化新协议具有重要推动作用。面对2020年后的新挑战,中国需尽快制定应对气候变化法,建立碳排放交易机制,促进对应对气候变化先进技术投资,以及加大参与治理国际气候变化事务力度。     

AIMS AND SCOPE

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and international authors by publishing original papers and invited papers addressing state-of-the-art knowledge and     

Liquefaction mitigation in silty soils using composite stone columns and dynamic compaction

The objective of this study is to develop an analytical methodology to evaluate the effectiveness ofvibro stone column (S. C.) and dynamic compaction (D.C.) techniques supplemented with wick drains to densify and mitigate liquethctionin saturated sands and non-plastic silty soils. It includes the following: (i) develop numerical models to simulate and analyze soil densification during S.C. installation and D.C. process, and (ii) identify parameters controlling post-improvement soil density in both cases, and (iii) develop design guidelines for densification of silty soils using the above techniques. An analytical procedure was developed and used to simulate soil response during S.C. and D.C. installations, and the results were compared with available case history data. Important construction design parameters and soil properties that affect the effectiveness of these techniques, and construction design choices suitable for sands and non-plastic silty soils were identified. The methodology is expected to advance the use of S.C. and DC. in silty soils reducing the reliance on expensive field trials as a design tool. The ultimate outcome of this research will be design charts and design guidelines for using composite stone columns and composite dynamic compaction techniques in liquefaction mitigation of saturated silty soils.     

A systematic model for artificial reef site selection

Although artificial reefs are commonly used throughout the world as tools to mitigate for habitat alteration, their development is rarely subjected to a rigorous site selection process. We developed a simple site selection model using the following seven systematic steps: exclusion mapping, depth and slope verification, surficial substrate assessment, data weighting and the subsequent ranking analysis, visual transect surveys, benthic air‐lift sampling, and larval settlement collector deployment. American lobster (Homarus americanas) was selected as the target species for these investigations owing to the local commercial importance of the species. Results from each step in this process ultimately allowed us to select a site for an artificial reef at a target depth that received little wave action, had no slope, and possessed a surficial substrate type that could support the weight of a reef. The site also had the presence of a natural larval supply and low species diversity before reef installation. Each step in this site selection model was designed for easy adaptation to suit the needs of various artificial reef projects.     

中国新能源发电生命周期温室气体减排潜力比较和分析

从生命周期的角度分析,各类新能源发电技术的开发、建设、运行过程,也会带来一定的温室气体排放,这引发了人们对于新能源发电技术“低碳”属性的担忧。遵循生命周期评价方法,在对国内外大量资料文献进行收集整理的基础上,对中国传统火电和主要新能源发电技术的温室气体排放系数进行了对比分析;并根据国家发展规划目标,对新能源发电替代火电的温室气体减排潜力进行了估算。分析结果表明,即使考虑生命周期内的排放,新能源发电技术的温室气体排放系数仍远远低于火电,新能源发电技术替代火电的温室气体减排潜力巨大。     

Efficient risk assessment of lifeline networks under spatially correlated ground motions using selective recursive decomposition algorithm

For effective hazard mitigation planning and prompt-but-prudent post-disaster responses, it is essential to evaluate the reliability of infrastructure networks accurately and efficiently. A nonsimulation-based algorithm, termed as a recursive decomposition algorithm (RDA), was recently proposed to identify disjoint cut sets and link sets and to compute the network reliability. This paper introduces a ‘selective’ RDA, which preferentially identifies critical disjoint cut sets and link sets to calculate the probabilities of network disconnection events with a significantly reduced number of identified sets. To this end, the original RDA is improved by replacing the shortest path algorithm with an algorithm that identifies the most reliable path, and by using a graph decomposition scheme based on the probabilities associated with the subgraphs. The critical sets identified by the algorithm are also used to compute conditional probability-based importance measures that quantify the relative importance of network components by their contributions to network disconnection events. This paper also introduces a risk assessment framework for lifeline networks based on the use of the selective RDA, which can consider both interevent and intraevent uncertainties of spatially correlated ground motions. The risk assessment framework and the selective RDA are demonstrated by a hypothetical network example, and the gas and water transmission networks of Shelby County in Tennessee, USA. The examples show that the proposed framework and the selective RDA greatly improve efficiency of risk assessment of complex lifeline networks, which are characterized by a large number of components, complex network topology, and statistical dependence between component failures. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

纳入政府目标考核 建立有效工作机制——合肥市加强和创新防震减灾社会管理的有益尝试

介绍了合肥市创新防震减灾社会管理机制的基本做法,分析了其成效与不足,提出了进一步加强市县防震减灾社会管理的意见和建议。     

Discard mitigation - what we can learn from waste minimization practices in other natural resources?

Solutions to the problem of discarding in fisheries have been debated for decades. Despite this attention, measures to ameliorate discarding have had limited success. Regulators, researchers, and industry continue to struggle with fisheries management and foregone yield in the face of the continued wastage of valuable resources due to discarding.Waste minimization and by-product utilization are powerful imperatives in other sectors that are also reliant on the harvest of natural resources. This paper considers the performance of these sectors in waste minimization and by-product utilization, with the aim of identifying practices and processes that may be applied to ameliorate discarding in fisheries.This paper describes the handling, utilization, and mitigation of discards and waste in the livestock farming, agriculture, mining, and waste management industries, and in particular, in forestry. In terms of biological impact, economic objectives, and management approaches the harvesting of trees has substantial similarities to industrialized fishing. However, the forestry sector has found ways to utilize almost 100% of the natural product harvest by establishing markets and new products. Analogous developments within the fishing industry could substantially improve sustainability through reduced levels of discarding and wastage. Based on the experiences of these sectors it is suggested that evaluations of potential Management Strategies are developed to specifically examine discard mitigation approaches on a broader scale than previously conducted.