鄱阳湖区风电场风电功率预报研究

风力发电作为一种无污染可再生的能源,已逐渐成为许多国家能源战略可持续发展的重要组成部分。风电场风能预报是风力发电开发中的关键技术问题。为研究鄱阳湖区风力发电预报技术,采用中尺度模式WRF和微尺度模块CALMET对鄱阳湖区长岭风电场进行了200 m水平分辨率风能预报,并根据长岭机组理论功率曲线表和实测数据拟合出理论和实际发电机组功率曲线模型及平均有功功率与发电量模型。根据WRF+CALMET模式预报风速及建立的发电机组功率曲线模型和平均有功功率与发电量模型,预报了长岭风电场发电量。结果表明:长岭风电场23座风机逐小时风速预报值与观测值相关系数为0.42~0.61,均方根误差为2.59~3.68,相对误差为-13.7%~17.4%;对整个风场,预报风速与观测风速的相关系数为0.55,均方根误差为2.8,相对误差为-4.79%。实测发电量值高于预报值,平均偏大39.7 kW,相对误差为-12.6%,预报值与实测值相关性较好,相关系数达到0.52。总体来说,根据中尺度数值模式预报的风速结合风功率、发电量模型预测出的发电量与实测值较为接近,但各月差异性较大。     

CHANGES IN U.S. NATIONAL MOBILITY LEVELS*

This paper investigates the decline in the national mobility level that occurred during 1970-1983. The effects of generation size are discussed in detail; bigger generations may move at lower rates because of the increased competition for jobs and housing. The changing age composition of the population will imply further mobility declines during coming decades if age-specific mobility rates remain constant. A consideration of anticipated changes in the size of the young adult cohort suggests that the national mobility rate may increase slightly over the next decade, before beginning a relatively modest decline during 1995-2040.     

Investigations on the runoff generation at the profile and plot scales,Swiss Emmental

This article describes an investigation on runoff generation at different scales in the forested catchment of the Sperbelgraben in the Emmental region (Swiss Prealps) where studies in the field of forest hydrology have a history of 100 years. It focuses on the analysis of soil profiles and the subsequent sprinkling experiments above them (1 m²), as well as on surface runoff measurements on larger plots (50 to 110 m²). In the Sperbelgraben investigation area, two very distinct runoff reactions could be observed. On the one hand, very high production of saturation overland flow was registered on wet areas of gleyic soils, with runoff coefficients between 0·39 and 0·94 for profile irrigation. On the other hand, almost no surface runoff was measured on Cambisols, with the exception at some sites of a hydrophobic reaction detected at the beginning of storms after dry periods (coefficients for profile irrigation: 0·01–0·16). This pattern was observed during 1 m² soil plot irrigation and on surface runoff plots. Apart from a less distinctive signal of the water‐repellent litter layer on the larger surface runoff plots, the dominant hydrological processes at the two scales are the same. The determined runoff reaction at the two scales corresponds well with information from a forest site type map describing soil and vegetation characteristics and used as a substitute for a soil map in this study. Theoretical considerations describing forest influence on flood discharge are discussed and evaluated to be in good agreement with observations. These findings are a sound foundation for application in hydrological catchment modelling. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A conceptually based stochastic point process model for daily stream‐flow generation

Based on the stochastic and phenomenological aspects of hydrological processes, a conceptually based stochastic point process (SPP) model for daily stream‐flow generation is proposed in this paper. In which, storms are defined by a stochastic point process with marked values. All the random variables defining the process are assumed to be mutually independent, which constitutes a compound Poisson point process. The direct surface runoff is regarded as occurring from storage in a cascade of surface linear reservoirs and is responsible for the short‐term variation of the daily stream flows. The baseflow component is considered as coming from subsurface/groundwater storage and is responsible for the long‐term persistence of the storm time‐series. This type of model is proposed as a more realistic model of daily stream flow than models based on pure stochastic processes. Studies on the instantaneous unit hydrograph and the mechanism of baseflow could thereby provide some parameters for this model. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First‐order exchange coefficient coupling for simulating surface water–groundwater interactions: parameter sensitivity and consistency with a physics‐based approach

Distributed hydrologic models capable of simulating fully‐coupled surface water and groundwater flow are increasingly used to examine problems in the hydrologic sciences. Several techniques are currently available to couple the surface and subsurface; the two most frequently employed approaches are first‐order exchange coefficients (a.k.a., the surface conductance method) and enforced continuity of pressure and flux at the surface‐subsurface boundary condition. The effort reported here examines the parameter sensitivity of simulated hydrologic response for the first‐order exchange coefficients at a well‐characterized field site using the fully coupled Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM). This investigation demonstrates that the first‐order exchange coefficients can be selected such that the simulated hydrologic response is insensitive to the parameter choice, while simulation time is considerably reduced. Alternatively, the ability to choose a first‐order exchange coefficient that intentionally decouples the surface and subsurface facilitates concept‐development simulations to examine real‐world situations where the surface‐subsurface exchange is impaired. While the parameters comprising the first‐order exchange coefficient cannot be directly estimated or measured, the insensitivity of the simulated flow system to these parameters (when chosen appropriately) combined with the ability to mimic actual physical processes suggests that the first‐order exchange coefficient approach can be consistent with a physics‐based framework. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SEARCHING METHODS FOR RAPID GRID INTERPOLATION*

A widely used method for grid interpretation from a set of discrete sample points is based on the inverse distanceweighted model. This method requires the identification of k-nearest sample points for each grid point, probably the most time-consuming portion of the grid interpolation process. Three searching methods for identifying the k-nearest sample points are discussed and compared. Two of these methods were consistenty faster without sacrificing accuracy than the brute-force searching method, and one method was from one to over 90 times faster than the brute-force searching method.     

Runoff generation and routing on artificial slopes in a Mediterranean–continental environment: the Teruel coalfield,Spain

The aim of this study was to identify the mechanisms of runoff generation and routing and their controlling factors at the hillslope scale, on artificial slopes derived from surface coal mining reclamation in a Mediterranean–continental area. Rainfall and runoff at interrill and microcatchment scales were recorded for a year on two slopes with different substrata: topsoil cover and overburden cover. Runoff coefficient and runoff routing from interrill areas to microcatchment outlets were higher in the overburden substratum than in topsoil, and greater in the most developed rill network. Rainfall volume is the major parameter responsible for runoff response on overburden, suggesting that this substratum is very impermeable—at least during the main rainfall periods of the year (late spring and autumn) when the soil surface is sealed. In such conditions, most rainfall input is converted into runoff, regardless of its intensity. Results from artificial rainfall experiments, conducted 3 and 7 years after seeding, confirm the low infiltration capacity of overburden when sealed. The hydrological response shows great seasonal variability on the overburden slope in accordance with soil surface changes over the year. Rainfall volume and intensities (I₃₀, I₆₀) explain runoff at the interrill scale on the topsoil slope, where rainfall experiments demonstrated a typical Hortonian infiltration curve. However, no correlation was found at the microcatchment level, probably because of the loss of functionality of the only rill as ecological succession proceeded. The runoff generation mechanism on the topsoil slope is more homogeneous throughout the year. Runoff connectivity, defined as the ratio between runoff rates recorded at the rill network scale and those recorded at the interrill area scale in every rainfall event, was also greater on the rilled overburden slope, and in the most developed rill network. The dense rill networks of the overburden slope guarantee very effective runoff drainage, regardless of rainfall magnitude. Rills drain overland flow from interrill‐sealed areas, reducing the opportunity of reinfiltration in areas not affected by siltation. Runoff generation and routing on topsoil slopes are controlled by grass cover and soil moisture content, whereas on overburden slopes rill network density and soil moisture content are the main controlling factors. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SOFTWARE REVIEWS

software reviews are in this article BMDP/PC CONCEPTS COMPUTERIZED ATLAS EVALUATION OF ALTERNATE PROPOSALS (EAP) EXTRA: EXPRESS TRANSIT ANALYSIS MATC CAD MOTORS TRANSPORTATION PACKAGE PCMAP: Thematic Mapping Software for the IBM Personal Computer, Version 2.3 PLACE TRANPLAN . US-ATLAS     

Trip making, induced travel demand, and accessibility

Traditional transportation planning practice rests on the premise that the demand for transportation is derived. On the other hand, economic theory advances that enhancement to the transportation system leads to lower travel cost and hence to induced demand. Such an argument lends support to the view that the rate at which trips are generated is linked to the ease of making trips to potential destinations. Rather conflicting evidence has so far come out of aggregate trip generation modeling applications. This paper revisits this issue with proper characterization of integral accessibility. Poisson regression models of automobile trip generation by trip purpose are estimated on travel survey data in Minneapolis–St. Paul, MN. Alternative measures of accessibility are tested for statistical significance. Conclusions are drawn on the role of accessibility in trip making and on the comparison of integral accessibility measures.The first author gratefully acknowledges the financial support of NSF grant SBR- 9308394. We are particularly indebted to Rick Gelbmann, Robert Paddock, and Mark Philippi at the Metropolitan Council, Minneapolis–St. Paul, and William Barrett at the Office of Transportation Data Analysis, Minnesota Department of Transportation for their availability to answer all our data-related questions.     

Gas formation mechanism of marine carbonate source rocks in China

It has been proven in exploration practice that thecarbonates in China not only can generate hydrocar-bons, but also form commercial reservoirs. The car-bonates are different from clastic rocks in view of theirdeposition environment as well as their sedimentaryand diagenetic processes. Therefore, the evaluationcriteria and hydrocarbon generation mechanism forcarbonates can not be the same as that for clasticrocks, and it is important to establish a special hydro-carbon generation mechanism and…