1990年12月14日台湾强震的预报判据

本文运用福建省沿海气象要素的异常变化,作台湾省的中、短期地震预报,取得了成功的效果。采用长乐历年各月14时最低气压的距平值,作台湾省未来4～7个月内出现强震的预报依据,并采用热异常进行短临跟踪。当秋冬季节连续4d 长乐、福州、台北的气温均比广州累计高出10℃时,预报未来1～5d 台湾省出现7级强震。又根据近百年来台湾发生的强震,统计其活动季节,得到近20年来7级地震发生的时间,绝大部分在9～12月。     

浅海桶形基础平台抗拔力与抗倾稳定分析

平台在海上受风、浪、流、冰等水平载荷作用产生倾斜 ,而土壤粘接力、摩擦力和土抗力是平台的抗拔和抗倾力 ,桶基平台应满足抗拔、抗倾稳定的要求 ,以保证平台的整体稳定性。讨论了桶基平台受水平力作用时 ,桶形基础的破坏模式及其计算方法 ,阐述了抗倾稳定计算方法     

广州在沿海开放城市的旅游形象定位研究

根据国际形象设计发展趋势,提出城市旅游形象设计应有３个层次：一是城市旅游整体形象;二是城市旅游吸引物的特色形象;三是旅游企业形象。根据Ｊｅｎｓｅｎ－Ｖｅｒｂｅｋｅ都市旅游产品界定模式,结合广州实际,分析了广州的旅游吸引物,将广州旅游形象定位为（１）商都旅游,包括购物,美食、商务旅游和现代化城市景观的游览;（２）近现代史迹旅游,包括古代史迹和建筑艺术的观赏,其形象口号为“两个中心”,即商贸中心和近现     

莱州湾温带风暴潮预报研究

本文依据莱州湾羊角沟、夏营两站建国以来的风暴增水资料，对莱州湾建国后发生的风暴潮进行了统计分析，并探讨了温带风暴潮产生的物理机制，此外还对莱州湾温带风暴增水以及诱发增水的天气形势进行了分析分类。在此基础上建立了莱州湾温带风暴潮统计预报方法，并在作业预报中对模型进行了检验，取得较为理想的效果。     

A General Linear Wave Theory for Water Waves Propagating over Uneven Porous Bottoms

Starting from the widespread phenomena of porous bottoms in the near shore region, considering fully the diversity of bottom topography and wave number variation, and including the effect of evanescent modes, a general linear wave theory for water waves propagating over uneven porous bottoms in the near shore region is established by use of Green‘s scond identity. This theory can be reduced to a number of the most typical mild-slope equations curreutly in use and provide a reliable research basis for follow-up development of nonlinear water wave theory involving porous bottoms.     

一个具有下垫面温度耦合的大气环流的统计—动力模式

本文从动力学定律出发,推导了一个线性的、具有下垫面温度耦合的大气环流的统计—动力模式,并用该模式对500hPa高度场及1000hPa温度场作1～30天的平均预报试验。模式的预报结果大大优于惯性预报,但耦合与不耦合的结果差别不大。     

Long Waves Associated with Bichromatic Waves

A numerical model of low frequency waves is presented. The model is based on that of Roelvink (1993), but the nu-merical techniques used in the solution are based on the so-called Weighted-Average Flux (WAF) method with Time-Operator-Splitting (TOS) used for the treatment of the source terms. This method allows a small number of computational points to be used, and is particularly efficient in modeling wave setup. The short wave (or primary wave) energy equation is solved with a traditional Lax-Wendroff technique. A nonlinear wave theory is introduced. The model described in this paper is found to be satisfactory in modeling low frequency waves associated with incident bichromalic waves.     

琼州海峡铁路轮渡新海湾港区泥沙淤积问题

海南省拟建琼州海峡铁路轮渡。本文通过对海峡南岸新海湾轮渡港址附近自然条件、岸滩演变和输沙特征的分析研究，对不同类型港区布置方案港内开挖区和航道的淤积强度、淤积量等进行了计算，并对不同防护建筑物的有效拦沙时间等进行了探讨和计算，提出了港区类型推荐方案。     

Acoustic plane-wave scattering from a rough surface over a random fluid medium

Acoustic plane-wave scattering from a rough surface overlying a fluid half-space with a sound-speed distribution subject to a small random variation is considered. Under the assumption that the surface roughness and medium randomness are statistically independent, the scattered field may be derived by first solving for the mean field in the medium, and then incorporating with boundary-perturbation method to obtain the total mean field and the power spectral density of the scattered field. The employed algorithm is compatible to the analysis available in the existing literature so that the formulations are conveniently integrated. The results for the power spectral density have shown that the effects of medium inhomogeneities on the rough surface scattering are limited in a spectral regime where the scattered components have shallow grazing angles. The distribution of the power spectral density over the space is primarily governed by the power spectrum and correlation lengths of the rough surface.     

Neural network for wave forecasting among multi-stations

Unlike in the open sea, the use of wind information for forecasting waves may encounter more ambiguous uncertainties in the coastal or harbor area due to the influence of complicated geometric configurations. Thus this paper attempts to forecast the waves based on learning the characteristics of observed waves, rather than the use of the wind information. This is reported in this paper by the application of the artificial neural network (ANN), in which the back-propagation algorithm is employed in the learning process for obtaining the desired results. This model evaluated the interconnection weights among multi-stations based on the previous short-term data, from which a time series of waves at a station can be generated for forecasting or data supplement based on using the neighbor stations data. Field data are used for testing the applicability of the ANN model. The results show that the ANN model performs well for both wave forecasting and data supplement when using a short-term observed wave data.