基于地震对应概率谱分析的定点形变前兆异常探索

利用地震对应概率谱和累计滑动平均概率方法,选取精河水平摆卡尔曼滤波差值进行中强地震前兆定量的异常识别探索。探索中先是对精河水平摆卡尔曼滤波差值数据进行数据分布及各区间参数有震对应分布的研究,然后利用累计滑动平均方法得到滑动平均概率,从而检验地震对应概率谱在定点形变前兆异常的预报效能。     

The variation and controls of mean transit times in Australian headwater catchments

Determining mean transit times in headwater catchments is critical for understanding catchment functioning and understanding their responses to changes in landuse or climate. Determining whether mean transit times (MTTs) correlate with drainage density, slope angle, area, or land cover permits a better understanding of the controls on water flow through catchments and allows first-order predictions of MTTs in other catchments to be made. This study assesses whether there are identifiable controls on MTTs determined using ³H in headwater catchments of southeast Australia. Despite MTTs at baseflow varying from a few years to >100 years, it was difficult to predict MTTs using single or groups of readily-measured catchment attributes. The lack of readily-identifiable correlations hampers the prediction of MTTs in adjacent catchments even where these have similar geology, land use, and topography. The long MTTs of the Australian headwater catchments are probably in part due to the catchments having high storage volumes in deeply-weathered regolith, combined with low recharge rates due to high evapotranspiration. However, the difficulty in estimating storage volumes at the catchment scale hampers the use of this parameter to estimate MTTs. The runoff coefficient (the fraction of rainfall exported via the stream) is probably also controlled by evapotranspiration and recharge rates. Correlations between the runoff coefficient and MTTs in individual catchments allow predictions of MTTs in nearby catchments to be made. MTTs are shorter in high rainfall periods as the catchments wet up and shallow water stores are mobilized. Despite the contribution of younger water, the major ion geochemistry in individual catchments commonly does not correlate with MTTs, probably reflecting heterogeneous reactions and varying degrees of evapotranspiration. Documenting MTTs in catchments with high storage volumes and/or low recharge rates elsewhere is important for understanding MTTs in diverse environments.     

Water temperature modelling: comparison between the generalized additive model,logistic, residuals regression and linear regression models

Water temperature has a significant influence on aquatic organisms, including stenotherm fish such as salmonids. It is thus of prime importance to build reliable tools to forecast water temperature. This study evaluated a statistical scheme to model average water temperature based on daily average air temperature and average discharge at the Sainte-Marguerite River, Northern Canada. The aim was to test a non-parametric water temperature generalized additive model (GAM) and to compare its performance to three previously developed approaches: the logistic, residuals regression and linear regression models. Due to its flexibility, the GAM was able to capture some of the nonlinear response between water temperature and the two explanatory variables (air temperature and flow). The shape of these effects was determined by the trends shown in the collected data. The four models were evaluated annually using a cross-validation technique. Three comparison criteria were calculated: the root mean square error (RMSE), the bias error and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSC). The goodness of fit of the four models was also compared graphically. The GAM was the best among the four models (RMSE = 1.44°C, bias = ?0.04 and NSC = 0.94).     

基于范数灰色理论的滑坡稳定性敏感因子分析

灰色关联分析模型可用于滑坡稳定性敏感因子的定量分析。将范数灰色理论引入到滑坡稳定性敏感因子分析之中,确定了影响滑坡稳定性系数的因素权重,较为直观地反映了各影响因子对滑坡稳定性的影响程度。以重庆市綦江县土台镇滑坡为例,进行滑坡稳定性敏感因子的范数灰关联度计算。结果显示,滑动面岩土体强度参数是影响土台镇滑坡稳定性最重要的因素,地震作用和地下水位的变化对该滑体稳定性的影响要稍弱一些。     

基于地层倾斜规律的防斜打直钻井技术研究

地层自然倾斜、钻具组合、钻井参数是影响钻井井斜方位变化的主要因素。根据地层层面空间网格数据,建立了地层倾角、倾向的计算方法,并针对典型防斜打直钻具组合和钻井参数之间的关系进行了力学分析。应用结果表明,井眼实钻轨迹与设计轨迹基本相同,形成了利用地层自然倾斜规律,在钻井自然中靶的同时,释放钻压提高钻速的防斜打直优快钻井技术,对于高陡构造油气藏的高效开发具有重要的理论意义和工程实用价值。     

山地冰川流动模型探讨

近30 a来冰川动力学模型有了快速发展, 在南极、 格林兰冰盖预测中取得一系列重要成果, 对山地冰川的研究也初见端倪. 从冰川流动的力学过程出发, 利用本构方程、 理想冰川假设、 浅冰层近似(Shallow ice approximation)假设完整地推导了理想冰川流动的物理过程, 揭示了冰川流动的机理, 建立了气候变化和冰川自身重力引起的理想冰川物质和能量再分配的温度耦合三维流动模型. 结合山地冰川的冰床形态, 将理想冰川与实际冰川相结合, 使理想冰川流动模型更好地近似山地冰川的流动.     

Understanding Perturbation on the Simplex: A Simple Method to Better Visualize and Interpret Compositional Data in Ternary Diagrams

Perturbation is an operation defined on the simplex and can be used for centering compositional data in a ternary diagram, applying objective criteria. Because a straight line in the original diagram is still astraight line in the perturbed diagram, gridlines or compositional fields defined by straight lines can easily be included in the operation. Simultaneous perturbation of data, gridlines, and/or compositional fields is shown to improve both visualization and graphical interpretation of compositions in ternary diagrams. This is illustrated by some examples using simulated as well as real data.     

改进PSO算法在水位流量关系拟合中的应用

粒子群算法(PSO)是一种基于群智能的全局优化方法。将改进PSO算法应用于水位流量关系拟合优化问题,通过对结果的比较分析,验证了改进PSO算法在提高精度方面的有效性,说明了改进PSO算法在水位流量关系拟合中应用的可行性。     

轻量砂变形及强度特性三轴试验研究

通过三轴试验系统研究了新型土工材料--轻量砂的变形及强度特性。结果表明,不同的配比、龄期使轻量砂具有不同的原生结构强度,围压使不同原生结构强度的土样处于剪胀或剪缩状态,导致发生应变硬化、应变软化以及相应状态下孔压的3种对应形态变化。变形模量随EPS（发泡聚苯乙烯）球粒掺入比的增大而线性减小,随水泥掺入比、龄期增大而线性增大,相同配比的土样变形模量与围压关系不大;三轴抗压强度随EPS球粒掺入比增大而呈负指数关系减小,随水泥掺入比、龄期、围压增大而线性增大,存在水泥掺入比阀值;土骨架转换效应对于土样强度的影响很大,造成了土体单轴、三轴抗压强度分带,高水泥掺入比能够大大弱化EPS颗粒的土骨架效应。结合前人成果,系统地研究了轻量砂密度、无侧限抗压强度的影响因素,引入材料学中比强的概念,提出了单价比强图结合配方公式的方法,对轻量土砂进行配方优化。分析了轻量土砂应力-应变关系转型问题,提出采用无侧限抗压强度来表征不同配比、龄期轻量土砂的原生结构强度。通过试验与数理统计,建立临界围压与原生结构强度的关系,为数值模拟计算与建立本构模型奠定了基础。