第23周太阳活动峰年北京天文台太阳射电观测

An introduction to the instrumonts to be used for solar radio observations in Beijing in Solar Cycle 23 is made in this paper. They are 10cm solar radio telescope which has been used for a long time,and 1.0～2.0GHz,2.6～3.8GHz and 5.2～7.6GHz spectrometers. The former two spectrometers has passed a test,showing high guality,and the 5.2～7.6GHz one will be in operation from 1999. It is believed that highl gualified data should be obtained in the next solar cycle.     

吉林大阳岔上寒武统凤山组—下奥陶统冶里组层序地层和化学地层研究

根据岩相序列、沉积、成岩作用特征,将吉林省大阳岔地区晚寒武世凤山期至早奥陶世冶里期层序地层分为６个三级层序,代表了６个三级海侵—海退旋回;与之相应,该时期碳酸盐岩δ１３Ｃ值变化曲线出现５个低谷,其中凤山期至冶里早期泥晶灰岩δ１３Ｃ值出现４次幅度较大的上升、下降飘移,而冶里中、晚期泥晶灰岩的δ１３Ｃ值是在负值范围内波动。δ１３Ｃ值低谷与层序界面和海退事件基本拟合。牙形类Ｃ．ｉｎｔｅｒｍｅｄｉｕｓ带下部海绿石质凝缩段是寒武纪末—奥陶纪初期最大海泛事件沉积,也是寒武纪与奥陶纪之交等时性的年代地层对比标志。     

东海近海热带气旋及天气数值预报系统

以ＭＭ４模式为框架,研制并建立了东海近海热带气旋及天气数值预报系统,将对热带气旋的预报和一般天气的预报统一在一个模式中,并实现了业务自动化控制,自１９９４年台风季节起投入了业务试验和准业务的运行。结果表明：该系统对东海近海热带气旋路径、风场、降水及江淮梅雨降水具有较好的预报能力     

广义帕累托分布在广东重现期风速计算中的应用

利用广东省86个国家气象观测站建站以来近70a的逐月最大风速序列和近20a(1999—2018年)的逐月最大风速序列,基于POT抽样法,分别采用三参数广义帕累托分布函数对各站的重现期风速进行了概率计算,计算过程中三参数广义帕累托分布函数分别采用矩估计(MOM)、极大似然估计(MLE)、似然矩估计(LM)和概率权矩估计(PWM)等4种参数估计方法,结合表征参数估计优良性的指标:均方根误差RMSE、拟合相对偏差和显著性水平为0.05的科莫戈洛夫检验拟合适度指标K_f对拟合效果进行检验,结果表明:基于POT抽样的概率权矩估计(PWM)拟合效果最好。     

风廓线雷达水平风数据质量控制

基于九龙站风廓线雷达实时水平风数据制定了水平风数据的质量控制方法，首先求取中位数水平风场，其次构建实际观测风场和中位数风场的差值序列，然后求取差值序列的均方差，再根据差值均方差得到质控判别式，最后试验求取质控判别式中的质控阈值。通过对九龙站2017年风廓线雷达水平风数据质量控制发现，实测风向数据有2044185个，25721个没有通过质控，未通过质控的风向数据占总观测的比例是1.258%，风向数据在近地层通过质控的数据最多，随高度增加通过质控的数据量有所下降。实测风速数据有2044185个，18296个没有通过质控，未通过质控的风速数据占总观测的比例是0.895%，风速数据在2000～4000 m出错的最少，近地层次之，4500～7000 m出错的数据最多。质控后风廓线雷达和探空观测风数据的均方根误差减小，相关系数增加，风向数据质量在500～7000 m提升明显，风速数据在1500～8000 m之间提升明显。     

一降水工程的施工和从中引出的思考

基坑降水是岩土工程中经常遇到的施工问题。本文展示了一个降水工程实例，从中引伸出本工程尚未遇到而在其他项目中可能会出现并应及时解决的一些技术问题，引起同行的关注与重视。     

On solution of the inverse problem for confined aquifer flow via maximum likelihood

Joint estimation of transmissivity (T) and storativity (S) in a confined aquifer is done via maximum likelihood (ML). The differential equation of groundwater flow is discretized by the finite-element method, leading to equation _t+x _t=u _t. Elements of matrices and , as well as estimated covariance matrix of noise termu _t, are functions of T and S. By minimizing the negative loglikelihood function corresponding to discretized groundwater flow equation with respect to T and S, ML estimators are obtained. The ML approach is found to yield accurate estimates of T and S (within 9 and 10% of their actual values, respectively) and showed quadratic convergence in Newton's search technique. Prediction of aquifer response, using ML estimators, results in estimated piezometric heads accurate to ±0.5 m from their actual, exact values. Statistical properties of ML estimators are derived and some basic results for statistical inference are given.     

Appraisal of Seismic Hazard Parameters for the Seismic Regions of the East Circum-Pacific Belt Inferred from a Bayesian Approach

The assessment of seismic hazard parameters is important in the seismically active regions. A straightforward approach is considered for the statistical estimation of the maximum values of earthquake hazard parameters. The Bayesian estimator is suggested and emphasis is given to the evaluation of the maximum possible M_max (regional) magnitude in a future time interval T. This approach allows the uncertainty of earthquake magnitude to be accounted for. Seismic hazard parameters like the -value which is the slope of the magnitude-frequency law (where, b = log_e) and the intensity (rate) of seismic activity and their uncertainties are also estimated. The quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitude on a given time interval [0, T] are evaluated, as well. Two main assumptions are adopted for the method:(1) earthquake occurrence is Poissonian and(2) the magnitude-frequency law is of Gutenberg-Richter type with a cutoff maximum value of magnitude. It is needless to say the seismic catalog used must have a large number of events. This requirement leads to the estimation of the parameters referred to some of the most seismically active regions of the world, e.g., Chile, Peru-Equador-South Colombia,Central America and Mexico, which belong to the east part of the circum-Pacific belt.     

Contributions to the Ring Current Energy During Geomagnetic Storms

The purpose of this research was to study the complexity of the energization of the ring current during a geomagnetic storm, produced during southern Bz(IMF) by the injection of plasma sheet ions, accelerated by enhanced convective electric fields. This model assumes that the plasma sheet is continuously populated by H⁺ from the sun and the ionosphere, and sporadically by ionospheric O⁺, making the ring current a coupled system whose energy can hardly be expressed analytically. When Bz(IMF) turns north, the ring current becomes uncoupled, and the energy decays exponentially if the storm is weak, or can be expressed as a combination of exponentials during strong storms representing the quick decay of O⁺ and the slower decay of H⁺, as has been shown.