基于网络流理论的输油管道的最大输送问题研究

在天然气管道网络系统的工艺设计方案中,对布站的站点选择主要取决于其运营成本的相互比较,但鉴于需求和供应之间的关系,还必须考虑管道的输送能力和站点的容量等问题。对于这样复杂化的问题,利用网络流理论的最大流问题和最小费用的最大流问题,建立了输油管道最大输送问题的网络优化模型,并通过实例说明其有效性和可靠性。为输油管道网系统的构建提供了一种新的优化方法,在天然气管道输送决策管理中具有一定的理论参考价值和现实意义。     

Hybrid Estimation of Semivariogram Parameters

Two widely used methods of semivariogram estimation are weighted least squares estimation and maximum likelihood estimation. The former have certain computational advantages, whereas the latter are more statistically efficient. We introduce and study a “hybrid” semivariogram estimation procedure that combines weighted least squares estimation of the range parameter with maximum likelihood estimation of the sill (and nugget) assuming known range, in such a way that the sill-to-range ratio in an exponential semivariogram is estimated consistently under an infill asymptotic regime. We show empirically that such a procedure is nearly as efficient computationally, and more efficient statistically for some parameters, than weighted least squares estimation of all of the semivariogram’s parameters. Furthermore, we demonstrate that standard plug-in (or empirical) spatial predictors and prediction error variances, obtained by replacing the unknown semivariogram parameters with estimates in expressions for the ordinary kriging predictor and kriging variance, respectively, perform better when hybrid estimates are plugged in than when weighted least squares estimates are plugged in. In view of these results and the simplicity of computing the hybrid estimates from weighted least squares estimates, we suggest that software that currently estimates the semivariogram by weighted least squares methods be amended to include hybrid estimation as an option.     

河西走廊风能时空特征

利用河西走廊地区1970-2004年风速气候资料和2004年9月-2005年8月周年风塔精细资料,采用气候订正和即时风速订正,得到接近自然的风速,依此研究了该区域近地面70 m层内风能分布。结果表明:河西走廊区域风速变幅较小、气候变化趋势较稳定;有效风速(≥3 m/s)时数在6 000 h/a,10 m高度风能大多在150 w/m2以上,风能随高度线形增长(在70 m高度层内),平均每升高10 m风能增加28 w/m2;10~70 m层内总风能年储量相当丰富,普遍在1.5×1016kWh/m2(千瓦时/平方米)以上,潜在年产值达千万亿元。河西走廊风能存在明显周日和月季变化,风能和有效风速时数存在空间差异,其时空差异与河西走廊独特的戈壁下垫面关系密切。     

威连滩冲沟砂黄土的风蚀与降雨侵蚀模拟实验

 通过风洞与模拟降雨实验，研究了风力与降雨对青海省贵南县威连滩冲沟砂黄土的复合侵蚀作用。实验得出：①风蚀后的降雨使砂黄土表面在风干过程中形成了一层较为坚硬的结壳，增大了土壤的抗蚀性，降低了第二次风洞实验后期的风蚀率;②土壤水分与人为扰动是影响土壤风蚀的两个重要因素。当土壤水分较小时，风蚀率受人为扰动影响巨大;当土壤水分较大时，人为扰动对土壤风蚀的影响较小;③在持续降雨的实验条件下，砂黄土的产流、产沙量随着雨强的变化而改变。这种变化与表土的侵蚀率、可蚀性物质的多少、土壤水分以及土壤的入渗率等都有很大的关系。     

Wind erosion of blanket peat during a short period of surface desiccation (North Pennines,Northern England)

Strong winds are a characteristic feature of UK upland areas. Despite this, understanding of aeolian processes in upland environments of the UK is limited. This paper presents direct measurements and observations of blanket peat erosion by wind action during a two week period of desiccation in the North Pennines, Northern England. A circular configuration of mass flux sediment samplers was used to collect peat eroded by wind action from 16 cardinal compass directions. Meteorological conditions (wind speed, wind direction, precipitation and temperature) were recorded by an automatic weather station set up adjacent to the site. Surface desiccation led to peat crust erosion and dust deflation. During short (≤1 hour) periods of precipitation, wind‐driven rainfall also caused erosion. Typically, dust flux rates were up to two orders of magnitude lower than recorded during periods of sustained wet weather. Measurements demonstrate the hitherto unreported rapid switch in process regime between wind‐driven rainfall and dry blow deflation in blanket peat environments. Dry blow processes of blanket peat erosion may become more important in UK upland areas if climate change promotes more frequent surface desiccation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of single vegetation elements on wind speed and sediment transport in the Sahelian zone of Burkina Faso

Soil loss caused by wind erosion is a widespread phenomenon in the Sahelian zone of West Africa. According to Sahelian farmers, scattered vegetation standing in amongst the crop has the potential for a wind erosion control strategy. This study was conducted to study the effect of single vegetation elements on the pattern of average wind speed and sediment transport. This was done by two experiments that were carried out during the rainy seasons of 2002 and 2003 in north Burkina Faso, West Africa. Wind speeds were measured using three sonic anemometers, at a sampling frequency of 16 Hz. Sediment transport was determined by calculating the mass fluxes from 17 MWAC catchers. In this study, a shrub was defined as a vegetation element with branches until ground and a tree as a vegetation element with a distinctive trunk below a canopy. Behind shrubs wind speed near the soil surface was reduced up to approximately seven times the height of the shrub. The observed reduction in wind speed in the area where wind speed was reduced was 15 per cent on average. At the sides of the shrub, wind speed was increased, by on average 6 per cent. As the area of increase in wind speed is one‐third of the area of decrease in wind speed, the net effect of a shrub is a reduction in wind speed. A similar pattern was visible for the pattern of sediment transport around a shrub. Downwind of a shrub, sediment transport was diminished up to seven times the height of the shrub. Probably most of this material was trapped by the shrub. Trees showed a local increase of wind around the trunk, which is expected to relate to an increase in sediment transport around the trunk. Mass flux measurements of sediment transport were not made, but visual observations in the field substantiate this. Behind the canopy of a tree, a tree acts similarly to a shrub regarding its effects on average wind speed, but as a tree is generally a larger obstacle than a shrub the extent of this effect is larger than for shrubs. Thus, whereas shrubs are more effective than trees regarding their direct effect on soil loss by trapping sand particles near the soil surface, trees are more effective in affecting soil loss indirectly by reducing the wind speed downwind more effectively than shrubs. Therefore, to reduce soil loss in an area, the presence of both trees and shrubs is crucial. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Entropy‐based equation to assess hillslope sediment production

A new equation to assess hillslope sediment production, based on physical and probabilistic approaches, is presented. The equation, which allows the computation of the delivery ratio for every event, considers the physical variables of travel distance, stream power, settling velocity and gross erosion. The probability density function that arises from the new formulation is solved using the principle of maximum entropy. Based on data from five watersheds in both tropical and temperate zones, the new delivery parameter K_v is calibrated and associated with vegetation cover and conservation practice. The proposed equation is rationally based in relation to parameter K_v. The entropy‐based equation was applied to assess sediment yield in two other experimental watersheds, showing good predictability for the set (mean absolute error of 20·8%). No systematic error was found in the analysed data. The entropy‐based equation showed good predictability for long‐term sets of data and for high‐erosivity events, but did not perform well for the low‐erosivity ones. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

湛江港邻近海域台风浪的模拟研究

对第三代近岸海浪数值模式SWAN及包含的物理过程进行了简要介绍，利用该模式对影响南海湛江港海域的二次台风浪过程进行了模拟研究：由藤田台风风场模型同化相应时刻的台风要素、NCAR/NCEP网格点资料、单站观测资料后，提供模式所需风场；利用自嵌套的方式，提供模式波谱边界条件；两次模拟结果与实际海浪观测资料相符较好，可以为该海域台风浪的模拟预报提供较为重要的参考。     

多部多普勒雷达同步探测三维风场反演系统

“我国重大气候和天气灾害的形成机理与预测理论研究”项目首次启用双多普勒雷达组网同步观测，如何从同步观测的暴雨资料中反演三维场，具有重要的理论和现实意义，根据项目需要，建立了国内首套多部多普勒天气雷达同步探测三维风场反演软件系统，并反演出2001年7月13日由双多普勒雷达同步观测到的一个中β尺度暴雨系统的三维风场，结果显示，该三维风场结构合理，系统能满足外场试验的要求。