国际贸易对地区劳动力技能升级的影响——基于中国大陆地区地级市的数据分析

随着中国人口红利逐渐消失,劳动力技能升级的问题日益突出。已有研究表明,发展中国家融入全球生产网络体系并非必定能够促进劳动力技能的升级。论文以中国大陆地区主要地级市为例,利用2005、2010、2015年的面板数据,试图分析国际贸易对各地区劳动力技能结构变动及技能升级方面的影响。结果表明：出口贸易对地区高技能劳动力就业比重具有抑制作用,表现为出口贸易对劳动力技能降级的影响;而进口贸易所产生的技术扩散效应尚未显现,进出口贸易整体影响并不显著。进一步来看,从区域产业地理格局角度,对外贸易影响了不同技能水平劳动力人群的区域间流动,使得对外贸易对劳动力技能升级的影响效果在不同的区位与城市规模特征间存在显著差异。沿海城市和大城市主要表现为进口贸易显著促进高技能劳动力就业比重进而带来地区劳动力技能升级,相对于内陆地区和小城市而言,出口贸易会带来高技能劳动力就业比重下降,地区劳动力技能呈现降级趋势。     

中国高技能劳动力与一般劳动力的空间分布格局及其影响因素

基于2000和2010年全国人口普查分县数据和地级行政单元数据,采用不均衡指数和空间自相关分析等方法,刻画中国高技能劳动力和一般劳动力的空间分布格局及其变化,并采用空间滞后模型,识别高技能劳动力与一般劳动力空间分布的决定因素及其变化。结果表明：① 两类劳动力总体的空间特征均为东南密集,西北稀疏;② 2000—2010年,高技能劳动力在空间分布上呈集中化的趋势,而一般劳动力呈分散化的趋势;③ 十年间高技能劳动力集聚区虹吸作用加强,其分布越发集中于沿海特大城市群,而一般劳动力集聚区回波作用加强,其分布越发均衡;④ 空间回归分析结果表明,职工平均工资、是否直辖市或省会、每万人在校高校学生、是否沿海城市、常住人口数和空间溢出效应在十年中一直都是决定高技能劳动力和一般劳动力空间分布的主要因素,而失业率、中学生师比、二氧化硫排放量和绿地率在2010年也成为影响两类劳动力空间分布的主要因素。对比两类劳动力的模型结果可得,高技能劳动力的空间分布受行政因素、高校因素和地区生活舒适度的影响更大,而一般劳动力的空间分布受劳动力市场因素的影响更大。     

Modelling of the passive turning of a turret moored vessel in conditions of compact ice

The concept of the offshore oil and gas field development using floating ship-shaped platforms, frequently named floating production units (FPU further), with turret mooring is widely used in the world, including regions with harsh environment. The direct transfer of this concept to the Arctic seas is not possible, mostly due to the difficulties of maintaining a weathervaning, or passive turning regime in heavy ice conditions. The main danger relates to the fact that the expected FPU rotation under the action of high ice loads can be accompanied by a translational displacement of the FPU away from the mooring point. As a result, the mooring system may reach an overloaded state until the FPU turns to a favourable position relative to the ice drift direction. In the paper, we are focused on the investigation of a mathematical model of the passive FPU turning on a spot under the assumption that the ice cover is described by a rigid-plastic continuum. The study is performed both analytically and by numerical simulations. A number of specific FPU motion patterns are analytically derived from the model in quasi-static approximation in the form of successive limit states of the system FPU – ice continuum. Some results of the corresponding numerical simulation are presented that confirm the existence of similar solutions in the full dynamic setting of the problem. A partial parametric analysis of the problem is also performed.     

Wave energy conversion under constrained wave-by-wave impedance matching with amplitude and phase-match limits

This paper investigates an approach to limit the fullness of ‘tuning’ provided by wave-by-wave impedance matching control of wave energy devices in irregular waves. A single analytical formulation based on the Lagrange multiplier approach of Evans [1] is used to limit the velocity amplitude while also limiting the closeness of the phase match between velocity and exciting force. The paper studies the effect of the present technique in concurrently limiting the device velocity and the required control/actuation force. Time domain application requires wave-profile prediction, which here is based on a deterministic propagation model. Also examined in the time domain is the effect of possible violation of the displacement constraint, which for many designs implies impacts at hard stops within the power take-off mechanism. Time domain simulations are carried out for a 2-body axisymmetric converter (with physical end-stops) in sea states reported for a site off the US east coast. It is found that the approach leads to effective power conversion in the less energetic sea states, while as desired, considerable muting of the optimal response is found in the larger sea states. Under the assumptions of this work, the end-stop collisions are found to have a minor effect on the power conversion. The present approach could be used to guide the design of power take-off systems so that their displacement stroke, maximum force, and resistive and reactive power limits are well-matched to the achievable performance of a given controlled primary energy converter.     

日照港30万吨油码头船舶泊稳物理模型试验研究

日照港拟在岚北港区建设30万吨级原油码头,通过实验测定了船舶在风、浪、流作用下对码头结构的作用力、船舶运动量最大值、最大缆绳拉力、船舶对护舷撞击能量和撞击力,为工程结构设计和操船规程的制定提供可靠依据。     

Ice-Induced Fatigue Analysis by Spectral Approach for Offshore Jacket Platforms with Ice-Breaking Cones

The spectral methods and ice-induced fatigue analysis are discussed based on Miner's linear cumulative fatigue hypothesis and S-N curve data.According to the long-term data of full-scale tests on the platforms in the Bohai Sea,the ice force spectrum of conical structures and the fatigue environmental model are established.Moreover,the finite element model of JZ20-2MSW platform,an example of ice-induced fatigue analysis,is built with ANSYS software.The mode analysis and dynamic analysis in frequency domain under all kinds of ice fatigue work conditions are carried on,and the fatigue life of the structure is estimated in detail.The methods in this paper can be helpful in ice-induced fatigue analysis of ice-resistant platforms.     

发达国家海上搜救体系对比研究及对我国的启示

提升海上应急搜救能力对保障人民生命安全、维护国家海洋权益、彰显大国责任和担当具有积极作用和深远意义。发达国家海上搜救体系的先进性主要体现在搜救力量专业化、应急响应快捷化、组织协调高效化、搜救业务程序化等方面。文中对美国、英国、澳大利亚、日本4个国家的海上搜救组织构成、搜救力量水平、搜救工作模式等进行了分析,与我国海上搜救体系和机制进行了对比,并从优化搜救组织模式、完善搜救运行机制、健全搜救力量等方面给出了发展我国海上搜救体系的建议。     

土体约束对海底管道整体屈曲的影响机理研究

高温高压下海底管道的整体屈曲稳定性分析是管道设计的重要组成部分,而选取多长的管道进行分析对其整体屈曲稳定性结果影响显著。依据临界管长将管道分为"长管"与"短管",基于动力显式分析方法,揭示了长管与短管在发生整体屈曲过程中,屈曲幅值与波长、管壁轴向压力、轴向应变及轴向位移的变化规律;研究了土体约束力影响管道临界长度的规律性,分析了土体约束力系数对长管与短管整体屈曲变形的影响。研究发现,土体约束力对短管的整体屈曲行为影响显著,短管的整体屈曲幅值随土体约束力系数的增大呈现先增大后减小的趋势。该项研究对区分不同长度管道的整体屈曲类型进而采取有效防控措施具有重要参考价值。     

基于面板数据的海洋环境污染对海洋经济发展影响的实证研究

文章基于我国沿海11个省(自治区、直辖市)海洋环境和海洋经济的面板数据,将海洋产业结构和海洋产业劳动力要素投入作为控制变量,构建双对数面板数据模型,就海洋环境污染对海洋经济发展的影响进行实证分析。结果表明:海洋环境污染与海洋经济发展存在负相关关系,海洋产业结构与海洋经济发展存在正相关关系,海洋产业劳动力要素投入与海洋经济发展存在负相关关系。基于此,为促进海洋经济的可持续发展,提出加强海洋环境保护和治理、优化升级海洋产业结构以及培养和引进海洋专业人才的建议。     

影响地下应力状态的构造作用

成岩成矿的外部条件中压力是很重要的因素。地下岩石所受的压力不仅来自上覆岩石的重力，而且来自构造力和热力及其它力。这些力合成一个三轴不等的应力状态，相当一个以最短轴为半径的球状应力迭加一个差应力。前者影响成岩成矿和变质作用，后者控制岩石变形和组构的变化。通过三维应变应力测量，这两部分力通过计算是可以区分开的，因而这将是建立地下深度测算新方法的一个基础。