Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.     

关于海水网箱养殖系统风险评估的基础研究

随着海水网箱养殖业的迅速发展,制约海水网箱养殖发展的种种因素也逐步显露出来(风暴潮等恶劣气候、环境污染、人为的破坏等等),海水网箱养殖在预期获得丰厚利润的同时也面临遭受巨大损失的风险。本文对海水网箱养殖系统风险评估的可操作性进行了基础研究,提出了一套适合海水网箱养殖系统的风险评估方法,并就数据的收集和专家评审表做了一些研究,以此客观的反映系统的安全性和可靠性,使决策者实现对养殖系统生命周期的最佳控制。     

近海海洋石油平台导管架喷涂金属层防腐

锌、铝及其合金涂层对钢铁的防护，不仅对阴极起保护作用(Gartland，1987)， 对涂层本身也具有良好的抗腐蚀性能。此外，涂层中金属微粒表面形成的致密氧化膜，也起到了防腐蚀的作用。在不同大气环境下，锌、铝有良好的耐蚀性，其腐蚀速率比钢铁要低得多(李言涛，1998)。采用热喷涂锌、铝及其合金涂层对钢铁构件和构筑物进行长效防护早在20世纪20年代就已开始应用，至今仍是普遍采用的防护措施，并在继续发展(李守本等，1989)。20年代初，法国首先用于海水闸门的防腐；40年代美国用于墨西哥湾的海上井架和海上输油管以及舰船的防腐；60年代英、法、德等国海军将这一技术扩大应用到舰船的上部结构和船壳。而金属热喷涂技术在海洋工程中使用非常有限，第一次使用热喷铝涂层防护近海平台的实例是Conoco公司在北海的Murchison结构上的锥形塔，并且已获得了4a良好的使用效能(Fisher et al.，1987；Shaw et al.，1985)。1984年6月，Hutton张力支柱平台(TLP)在北海下水(水深148 m)安装。系链、升降机和锥形塔均采用火焰热喷涂技术喷涂铝涂层进行防护(Tyson，1985)。1992年6月，Hotton平台使用8a后，对升降机绳索进行观察，在飞溅区没有发现腐蚀现象，也没有检测到褐色渗漏效应(Fisher et al.，1995)。     

两项新技术及其在海水苗种生产中的应用

本文介绍了两项新技术，用泡沫净化空气、海水和生物效应灯，及其在海水苗种生产中的应用。文中分别讨论了它们的原理、设计安装及使用效果。希望这两项新技术能够得到推广，以提高出苗率，增加海水苗种生产的经济效益。     

Study on the characteristics of the marine boundary layer in the Equatorial Pacific

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Simulation of Pollutant Transport in Marmaris Bay

The circulation pattern and the pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay are simulated by the developed three-dimensional baroclinic model. The Marmaris Bay is located at the Mediterranean Sea coast of Turkey. Since the sp ring tidal range is typically 20- 30 cm, the dominant forcing for the circulation and water exchange is due to the wind action. In the Marmaris Bay, there is sea outfall discharging directly into the bay. and that threats the bay water quality significantly. The current patterns in the vicinity of the outfall have been observed by tracking drogues which are moved by currents at different water depths. In the simulations of pollutant transport, the coliforms-counts is used as the tracer. The model provides realistic predictions for the circulation and pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay. The transport model component predictions well agree with the results of a laboratory model study.     

东部沿海滩涂和浅海资源大开发之我见

介绍了浙江东南沿海的台州市及所属玉环县、温州市及所属乐清市、瓯海区等地面实施海洋“蓝色工程”的丰富实践和新鲜经验。文中借鉴浙东南沿海大开发的成功经验,结合我国东部沿海其它地区特别是苏北沿海的实际,提出了做出滩涂开发利用、发展海洋经济的总体战略构想。