Down‐slope facies variability within deep‐water channel systems: Insights from the Upper Cretaceous Cerro Toro Formation,southern Patagonia

In southern Patagonia, outcrops of the Upper Cretaceous Cerro Toro Formation preserve a >150 km long deep‐water axial channel belt in the Magallanes–Austral Basin, providing a unique opportunity to investigate longitudinal variations in the depositional characteristics of a deep‐water channel system. This study documents sedimentological, stratigraphical and geochronological data from the Cerro Toro Formation in the Argentine sector of the basin. New results are integrated with previous work from the Chilean basin sector to conduct a basin‐scale comparison of the timing of deposition, provenance and lithofacies proportions. The Cerro Toro channel belt includes a nearly 1000 m thick section characterized by high‐density turbidites and mass‐wasting deposits. Two ash beds from the base of the section yield U–Pb zircon ages of 90·4 ± 2 Ma and 88·0 ± 3 Ma, indicating similar initiation ages as documented in the Chilean sector. The U–Pb detrital zircon age spectra from samples in the study area reveal similar provenance trends to samples from the Chilean basin sector, with peak age populations at 310 to 260 Ma, 160 to 135 Ma and 110 to 82 Ma. The maximum depositional age of the channel belt in the Argentine sector is 87·8 ± 1·5 Ma and all new geochronology data corroborate an 86 to 80 Ma depositional age for the main Cerro Toro channel belt. Statistical analyses of 7370 beds from nearly 8000 m of new and previously published stratigraphic sections along the entire outcrop belt suggest progressive variations in the down‐system proportion of lithofacies. In the up‐slope region, lithofacies representing mass wasting processes (for example, debris‐flow and mass‐transport deposits) account for ca 29% of the stratigraphic thickness, as opposed to 5% in the down‐slope region of the channel belt, where turbidity current deposits are more prevalent. The proportion of beds >1 m thick also decreases systematically down slope, particularly for conglomeratic turbidite deposits. This work highlights that: (i) the proportion of thick beds and distribution of lithofacies are key down‐system changes in the stratigraphic fill of this deep‐water channel belt; (ii) detrital zircon trends suggest a relatively well‐mixed longitudinal depositional system; and (iii) geochronology of the main Cerro Toro outcrop belt supports but does not necessitate the model of a single, roughly age‐equivalent, channel system. This study has implications for understanding the downslope variability in depositional processes, stratigraphic architecture and reservoir quality of submarine channel systems.     

基于高分二号卫星数据的煤矿区地质灾害信息提取研究

随着遥感数据获取技术和能力的全面提高,遥感数据呈现出明显的大数据特征。发展适应于遥感大数据的智能分析和信息挖掘技术,成为当前遥感技术研究的前沿。高分二号（GF-2）卫星数据是我国首颗自主研发的亚米级高分辨率卫星数据,具有观测幅宽、重访周期短、高辐射精度、高定位精度等优势,为未来我国地质灾害的长期、动态地监测和研究提供了高精度、稳定可靠的数据源。本文选取安徽谢桥煤矿2015年1月8日的GF-2卫星影像为研究数据,在对煤矿区主要地质灾害遥感地学分析的基础上,采用面向对象的影像分析方法对研究区由采煤活动所诱发的地质灾害信息进行自动提取。结果表明：利用GF-2卫星数据能够有效地识别地质灾害体的位置、范围、形态等空间分布特征;面向对象的自动提取方法对于煤矿区大面积的积水塌陷盆地、小规模的塌陷坑和线性的地裂缝都有很高的提取精度,识别精度达90% 以上;基于逐层剔除的思路构建的提取规则,为GF-2数据在地质灾害调查和大数据分析中的应用提供了很好的技术支持,也为其它地物目标的提取提供了参考,但在特征的选择和阈值的设定上需要具体分析。     

高亚洲地区冰崩灾害的研究进展

在全球气候变化的背景下,冰崩灾害极有可能成为人类面临的新常态。特别是在高亚洲地区,冰崩灾害事件严重威胁"亚洲水塔"的命运和"第三极"的生态安全。因此,研究冰崩灾害事件对于保障"一带一路"国家战略的顺利实施和保护"一带一路"沿线国家的生产与生存环境具有重要的现实意义。通过梳理历史上有记录的几次冰崩灾害事件,系统介绍冰崩的发生过程;再从冰崩体的物质组成、冰崩体的运动特征、冰崩发生的可能原因以及冰崩的影响等方面总结了冰崩的研究内容;重点阐述了冰崩的研究方法;最后讨论了当前冰崩研究存在的问题,并从冰崩研究方法等角度展望了未来冰崩灾害事件的研究方向。     

Modelling tropical cyclone risks for present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques

Tropical cyclones and their devastating impacts are of great concern to coastal communities globally. An appropriate approach integrating climate change scenarios at local scales is essential for producing detailed risk models to support cyclone mitigation measures. This study developed a simple cyclone risk-modelling approach under present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques at local scales, and tested using a case study in Sarankhola Upazila from coastal Bangladesh. Linear storm-surge models were developed up to 100-year return periods. A local sea level rise scenario of 0.34?m for the year 2050 was integrated with surge models to assess the climate change impact. The resultant storm-surge models were used in the risk-modelling procedures. The developed risk models successfully identified the spatial extent and levels of risk that match with actual extent and levels within an acceptable limit of deviation. The result showed that cyclone risk areas increased with the increase of return period. The study also revealed that climate change scenario intensified the cyclone risk area by 5–10% in every return period. The findings indicate this approach has the potential to model cyclone risk in other similar coastal environments for developing mitigation plans and strategies.     

Pattern,style and timing of British–Irish Ice Sheet advance and retreat over the last 45 000 years: evidence from NW Scotland and the adjacent continental shelf

Predicting the future response of ice sheets to climate warming and rising global sea level is important but difficult. This is especially so when fast-flowing glaciers or ice streams, buffered by ice shelves, are grounded on beds below sea level. What happens when these ice shelves are removed? And how do the ice stream and the surrounding ice sheet respond to the abruptly altered boundary conditions? To address these questions and others we present new geological, geomorphological, geophysical and geochronological data from the ice-stream-dominated NW sector of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS). The study area covers around 45 000 km² of NW Scotland and the surrounding continental shelf. Alongside seabed geomorphological mapping and Quaternary sediment analysis, we use a suite of over 100 new absolute ages (including cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages, optically stimulated luminescence ages and radiocarbon dates) collected from onshore and offshore, to build a sector-wide ice-sheet reconstruction combining all available evidence with Bayesian chronosequence modelling. Using this information we present a detailed assessment of ice-sheet advance/retreat history, and the glaciological connections between different areas of the NW BIIS sector, at different times during the last glacial cycle. The results show a highly dynamic, partly marine, partly terrestrial, ice-sheet sector undergoing large size variations in response to sub-millennial-scale climatic (Dansgaard–Oeschger) cycles over the last 45 000 years. Superimposed on these trends we identify internally driven instabilities, operating at higher frequency, conditioned by local topographic factors, tidewater dynamics and glaciological feedbacks during deglaciation. Specifically, our new evidence indicates extensive marine-terminating ice-sheet glaciation of the NW BIIS sector during Greenland Stadials 12 to 9 – prior to the main ‘Late Weichselian’ ice-sheet glaciation. After a period of restricted glaciation, in Greenland Interstadials 8 to 6, we find good evidence for rapid renewed ice-sheet build-up in NW Scotland, with the Minch ice-stream terminus reaching the continental shelf edge in Greenland Stadial 5, perhaps only briefly. Deglaciation of the NW sector took place in numerous stages. Several grounding-zone wedges and moraines on the mid- and inner continental shelf attest to significant stabilizations of the ice-sheet grounding line, or ice margin, during overall retreat in Greenland Stadials 3 and 2, and to the development of ice shelves. NW Lewis was the first substantial present-day land area to deglaciate, in the first half of Greenland Stadial 3 at a time of globally reduced sea-level c. 26 kabp , followed by Cape Wrath at c. 24 kabp. The topographic confinement of the Minch straits probably promoted ice-shelf development in early Greenland Stadial 2, providing the ice stream with additional support and buffering it somewhat from external drivers. However, c. 20–19 kabp , as the grounding-line migrated into shoreward deepening water, coinciding with a marked change in marine geology and bed strength, the ice stream became unstable. We find that, once underway, grounding-line retreat proceeded in an uninterrupted fashion with the rapid loss of fronting ice shelves – first in the west, then the east troughs – before eventual glacier stabilization at fjord mouths in NW Scotland by ~17 kabp. Around the same time, ~19–17 kabp , ice-sheet lobes readvanced into the East Minch – possibly a glaciological response to the marine-instability-triggered loss of adjacent ice stream (and/or ice shelf) support in the Minch trough. An independent ice cap on Lewis also experienced margin oscillations during mid-Greenland Stadial 2, with an ice-accumulation centre in West Lewis existing into the latter part of Heinrich Stadial 1. Final ice-sheet deglaciation of NW mainland Scotland was punctuated by at least one other coherent readvance at c. 15.5 kabp , before significant ice-mass losses thereafter. At the glacial termination, c. 14.5 kabp , glaciers fed outwash sediment to now-abandoned coastal deltas in NW mainland Scotland around the time of global Meltwater Pulse 1A. Overall, this work on the BIIS NW sector reconstructs a highly dynamic ice-sheet oscillating in extent and volume for much of the last 45 000 years. Periods of expansive ice-sheet glaciation dominated by ice-streaming were interspersed with periods of much more restricted ice-cap or tidewater/fjordic glaciation. Finally, this work indicates that the role of ice streams in ice-sheet evolution is complex but mechanistically important throughout the lifetime of an ice sheet – with ice streams contributing to the regulation of ice-sheet health but also to the acceleration of ice-sheet demise via marine ice-sheet instabilities.     

基于逻辑回归的四川青川县区域滑坡灾害预警模型

四川省青川县滑坡灾害群发,点多面广,区域滑坡灾害预警是有效防灾减灾的重要手段,预警模型是成功预警的核心。由于研究区滑坡诱发机理复杂、调查监测大数据及分析方法不足等原因,传统区域地质灾害预警模型存在预警精度有限、精细化不足等问题。文章在青川县地质灾害调查监测和降水监测成果集成整理与数据清洗基础上,构建了青川县区域滑坡灾害训练样本集,样本集包括地质环境、降雨等27个输入特征属性和1个输出特征属性,涵盖了青川县近9年（2010—2018年）全部样本,数量达1 826个（其中,正样本613个,负样本1 213个）。基于逻辑回归算法,对样本集进行5折交叉验证学习训练,采用贝叶斯优化算法进行模型优化,采用精确度、ROC曲线和AUC值等指标校验模型准确度和模型泛化能力。其中,ROC曲线也称为“受试者工作特征”曲线;AUC值表示ROC曲线下的面积。校验结果显示,基于逻辑回归算法的模型训练结果准确率和泛化能力均较好（准确率94.3%,AUC为0.980）。开展区域滑坡实际预警时,按训练样本特征属性格式,输入研究区各预警单元27个特征属性,调用预先学习训练好的模型,输出滑坡灾害发生概率,根据输出概率分段确定滑坡灾害预警等级。当输出概率P≥40%且P<60%时,发布黄色预警;当输出概率P≥60%且P<80%时,发布橙色预警;当输出概率P≥80%时,发布红色预警。     

中国钾盐矿产基地成矿规律与深部探测技术示范

本项研究得到国家“十三五”重点研发计划支持,系“深地资源勘探开采专项”2017年启动的重点项目之一,由中国地质调查局中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所牵头,来自自然资源部、中国科学院、教育部、大型石油国企等10家骨干单位以及多家协作单位参加,联合开展协同创新研究,充分体现“产研学用”密切融合。本项研究聚焦“特提斯东段中生代(三叠纪、侏罗纪)海相成钾作用与后期改造、青藏高原北部柴达木盆地深层富钾卤水迁移-分异-汇聚成矿机制”的关键科学问题和“深部含钾盐系‘双复杂’高精度地震成像技术、深部钾盐矿层(富钾卤水层)测井识别与地震预测技术”的关键技术问题,以柴达木西部和川东北两个重点成钾区为资源基地落脚点,兼顾其他含钾盆地研究,建立三维地质模型和成矿模型,完善海、陆相成钾理论,形成3 000 m以浅钾盐勘探成套技术能力,综合评价深部钾盐资源潜力,实施异常验证钻探,新发现1个大型钾盐资源基地,值得综合评价的有利成钾远景区3~4处,实现深部钾盐找矿突破和增储示范。值得强调的是,只有立足国内,突破海相,在中西部大中型叠合盆地古代海相蒸发岩地层中找到大规模海相可溶性固体钾盐矿床,方能从根本上扭转中国钾盐资源严重短缺的被动局面。令人欣慰的是,通过近10年的艰苦努力,我国海相钾盐取得了一系列成矿理论新认识和钾盐找矿新发现:创新提出了滇西南“二层楼”成钾模式,指出侏罗纪海相找钾新方向;在川东北宣汉普光地区发现三叠系海相可溶性“新型杂卤石钾盐矿”,开拓了四川盆地海相找钾新领域和新方向;在新疆库车地区发现埋深超5 000 m的钾石盐矿层,取得了库车坳陷海相找钾的实质性进展;创新提出“W型复底锅”成钾模式,在陕北奥陶纪海相盐盆发现厚层钾石盐矿化段,取得古陆表海型钾盐找矿重要新进展。至此,中国海相钾盐找矿崭露了突破的曙光。如何在这些新发现的基础上,进一步加大投入、深入研究,取得海相可溶性钾盐找矿的实质性突破,落实建成若干大型以上海相钾盐资源基地,将是“十四五”及以后时期中国钾盐的主攻方向。     

降雨型地质灾害预报方法研究进展

开展降雨型地质灾害预报是减少灾害损失的有效方法。该文在讨论降雨型地质灾害预报相关概念的基础上,结合国内外已有的研究成果,系统总结了隐式统计模型、显式统计模型和动力模型等降雨型地质灾害预报模型的特点和适用条件。近几年区域降雨型地质灾害的预报技术研究有以下新特点:统计模型简单实用,目前已经由单一考虑降雨特征的第1代隐式统计模型,进一步发展为考虑地质、地貌等静态因子的显示统计模型;动力模型逐渐由基于垂直入渗理论的边坡稳定性模型开始向基于水土耦合机制的复杂预报模型发展;降雨型地质灾害业务预报预警的核心是地质灾害预报模型的本地化运行,我国已经基于统计模型搭建了服务于不同区域的业务预报预警系统。结合多源预报降雨资料,搭建基于水土耦合机制的降雨型地质灾害集合预报预警系统是未来可能的发展方向。     

Reconstruction of earthquake hazard in regions of sparse seismic monitoring

Studying strong motion records and the spatial distribution of ground shaking is of great importance in understanding the underlying causes of damage in earthquakes. Many regions in the world are either not instrumented or are sparsely instrumented. As such, significant opportunities for motion-damage correlations are lost. Two recent and damaging earthquakes belong to the class of lost opportunities, namely the Kashmir (Pakistan) earthquake of October 2005 and the Yogyakarta (Indonesia) earthquake of May 2006. In this paper, an overview of the importance of supply and demand studies in earthquake-stricken regions is given, followed by two examples of investigative engineering seismology aimed at reconstructing the hazard from sparse data. The paper closes with a plea for responsible authorities to invest in seismic monitoring networks in the very near future.     

西部某水电站坝区采空区的工程效应研究

通过对西部某水电站的地质环境分析,揭示了采空区分布特征.对溢洪道进行数值模拟,研究采空区上覆岩层的影响范围,分析采空区对溢洪道的影响.最后综合分析采空区对水电站不同工程部位的危害,提出相应的处理措施.