高性能计算技术在气象领域的应用

高性能计算通过应用超级计算机与并行处理技术解决复杂的计算问题,是信息技术发展比较迅猛的领域之一。气象应用始终是高性能计算的重要领域,高性能计算技术有效地解决了高分辨率、高精度气象数值预报模式发展限制,在气象预报预测业务中发挥着核心支撑作用。数十年以来,由于数值天气模式研究和业务运行对计算资源的强烈需求,国内外气象领域高性能计算机及应用迅速发展起来。气象领域对高性能计算能力及系统的可靠性需求日益提升。高性能计算技术将与气象预报应用日益融合,相互影响促进,不断创新发展。为满足气象预报预测业务和科研工作需求,中国气象部门将进一步提升高性能计算能力,并致力于优化集约高性能计算系统布局,高效管理计算资源,发挥最大效益。     

Modelling long-term HFC emissions from India's residential air-conditioning sector: exploring implications of alternative refrigerants,best practices,and a sustainable lifestyle within an integrated assessment modelling framework

India's growing role in the global climate debate makes it imperative to analyse emission reduction policies and strategies across a range of GHGs, especially for under-researched non-CO₂ gases. Hydrofluorocarbons' (HFCs) usage in cooling equipment and subsequent emissions are expected to increase dramatically in India with the phase-out of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) as coolants in air-conditioning equipment. We focus on the residential air-conditioning sector in India and analyse a suite of HFC and alternative coolant gas scenarios for understanding the implications for GHG emissions from this sector within an integrated assessment modelling framework. We find that, if unabated, HFC410A emissions will contribute to 36% of the total global warming impact from the residential air-conditioner sector in India in 2050, irrespective of the future economic growth trajectory, and the remaining 64% is from energy to power residential air-conditioners. A move towards more efficient, low global warming potential (GWP) alternative refrigerants will significantly reduce the cumulative global warming footprint of this sector by 37% during the period 2010–2050, due to gains both from energy efficiency as well as low GWP alternatives. Best practices for reducing direct emissions are important, but only of limited utility, and if a sustainable lifestyle is adopted by consumers with lower floorspace, low GWP refrigerants, and higher building envelope efficiencies, cumulative emissions during 2010–2050 can be reduced by 46% compared to the Reference scenario.

Policy relevance

Our analysis has important implications for Indian climate policy. We highlight that the Indian government's amendment proposal to the Montreal Protocol is a strong signal to the Indian market that the transition away from high GWP refrigerants towards low/zero GWP alternatives will happen sooner or later. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency should extend building energy conservation code policy to residential buildings immediately, and the government should mandate it. Government authorities should set guidelines and mandate reporting of data related to air-conditioner coolant recharge frequency and recovery of scrapped air-conditioner units. For contentious issues like flammability where there is no consensus within the industry, the government needs to undertake an independent technical assessment that can provide unbiased and reliable information to the market.     

Climate change mitigation scenarios and policies and measures: the case of Kazakhstan

This article illustrates the main difficulties encountered in the preparation of GHG emission projections and climate change mitigation policies and measures (P&M) for Kazakhstan. Difficulties in representing the system with an economic model have been overcome by representing the energy system with a technical-economic growth model (MARKAL-TIMES) based on the stock of existing plants, transformation processes, and end-use devices. GHG emission scenarios depend mainly on the pace of transition in Kazakhstan from a planned economy to a market economy. Three scenarios are portrayed: an incomplete transition, a fast and successful one, and even more advanced participation in global climate change mitigation, including participation in some emission trading schemes. If the transition to a market economy is completed by 2020, P&M already adopted may reduce emissions of CO₂ from combustion by about 85 MtCO₂ by 2030 – 17% of the emissions in the baseline (WOM) scenario. One-third of these reductions are likely to be obtained from the demand sectors, and two-thirds from the supply sectors. If every tonne of CO₂ not emitted is valued up to US$10 in 2020 and $20 in 2030, additional P&M may further reduce emissions by 110 MtCO₂ by 2030.     

顾及邻域居民地群组相似性的道路网匹配方法

现有多源同比例尺道路网匹配方法中,大多只利用道路自身特征进行匹配,而较少顾及道路周边要素对匹配过程的影响和约束,从而影响了道路网匹配效果的进一步提高,特别是对系统误差改正后仍存在一定位置或旋转偏差的道路数据进行匹配时,这种影响尤为明显。本文借鉴人类对陌生环境的空间认知特点,提出了一种顾及邻域居民地群组相似性的道路网匹配方法。该方法通过构建城市骨架线网确定与道路相邻的居民地群组,进而计算居民地群组空间关系和几何特征相似度来获得对应道路的匹配结果。其特点在于:对存在位置或旋转偏差的道路数据匹配,以其邻域空间内居民地群组的整体相似性指标来带动道路自身匹配,实际上是增加了周边居民地群组对道路匹配过程的约束,更具鲁棒性。试验及对比分析表明,本方法能够较好地解决系统误差改正后仍存在较大位置和旋转偏差的道路数据间的匹配问题,提高匹配的正确率。     

水质关键因素光谱遥感监测技术分析

针对传统水体水质分析方法过度依赖于实地测量和实验室化学分析,需要耗费大量人力物力且效率不高的问题,从水质遥感监测数据获取手段、典型反演监测模型、不同水体光谱遥感监测应用状况、水质遥感监测技术应用及前景等方面分析归纳了使用遥感技术监测水质的新方法。从可用数据类型、数据特征等方面对水质遥感监测数据获取的3种主要手段进行了比较;从复杂程度、使用场景、优缺点等方面对4种典型的反演模型进行了归纳;对遥感数据和模型在Ⅰ类和Ⅱ类水体应用中的常用组合方式进行了分析总结。     

The effects of the North Anatolian Fault on the geomorphology in the Eastern Marmara Region,Northwestern Turkey

North-western Anatolia has been actively deformed since Pliocene by the right-lateral North Anatolian Fault (NAF). This transform fault, which has a transtensional character in its western end due to effects from the Aegean extensional system, is a major control on the regional geomorphologic evolution. This study applied some geomorphic analyses, such as stream longitudinal profiles, stream length-gradient index, ratio of valley floor width and valley height, mountain front sinuosity, hypsometry and asymmetry factor analyses, to an area just east of the Sea of Marmara in order to understand the tectonic effects on the area’s geomorphological evolution. The active and fastest northern branch of the NAF lies within a topographic depression connecting Sea of Marmara in the east to the Adapazar? Basin in the west. This depression filled with early Pleistocene and younger sediment after a series of pull-apart basins opened along the NAF. North of this depression lies the Kocaeli Peneplain, whose southern edge the NAF uplifted. Meandering streams on the central peneplain were incised possibly due to baselevel changes in the Black Sea. South of the depression, an E-trending mountainous area has a rugged morphology. Based on geomorphic analyses, uplifted Pliocene sediment, marine terraces, and recent earthquake activity, this area between northern and southern branches of the NAF is actively uplifting. The geomorphic indices used in this study are sensitive to vertical movements rather than lateral ones. The bedrock lithology that played an important role on the area’s geomorphologic evolution also affects the geomorphic indices used here.     

长江三角洲全新世地层中潮滩沉积磁性特征及其古环境意义

对长江三角洲北翼江苏南通地区NT钻孔（长60.9 m）进行了系统的环境磁学分析,并结合岩性特征、粒度、漫反射光谱（DRS）等手段,探讨了全新世早、晚期潮滩沉积的磁性特征及其古环境意义。NT孔自下而上可分为6层（U1~U6层）,其中U2层下部（49.9~44.8 m）和U6层（7.5~0.3 m）为潮滩沉积,具有较低的退磁参数S比值及较高的硬剩磁（HIRM）和SIRM/χ,表明反铁磁性矿物如赤铁矿、针铁矿等含量和比例较高。结合漫反射光谱（DRS）分析,发现U6层上部盐沼（1.5~0.3 m）赤铁矿和针铁矿富集,U2层下部的盐沼仅富集赤铁矿。这一差异与U2层和U6层形成的时期和沉积环境有关。U2层形成于晚更新世晚期至早全新世,且曾长期暴露地表,有利于赤铁矿的形成,其后随着海平面的持续上升,盐沼不断垂向加积,始终处于水下环境,不利于针铁矿的形成;U6层形成于晚全新世三角洲海岸的进积过程中,氧化还原相互交替的环境有利于针铁矿的形成,后期成陆后的成土作用生成了较多的磁赤铁矿和赤铁矿。研究表明,全新世三角洲发育过程中,不同时期形成的盐沼具有不同的磁性特征,磁性特征的研究可以提供潮滩沉积环境演变的信息,对三角洲古环境重建研究具有重要意义。     

Early Cretaceous Climate Changes Recorded in Magnetic Susceptibility and Color Index Variations of the Lower Liupanshan Group, Central China

This study carried out comprehensive analysis on sedimentology, magnetic susceptibility(χlf) and color data of the continental sediments of the Liupanshan Group in Central China so as to obtain climatic change information during the 129.14–122.98 Ma interval. Based on the results of the ?lf and of the redness(a*), the section can be divided into two segments:(1) 129.14–126.3 Ma, with the lowest ?lf values and strongly variable relatively high values of redness and(2) 126.3–122.98 Ma, with high ?lf values and relatively low redness. Analysis of the lithology and facies as well as the magnetic minerals and their contents points to a detrital origin of the magnetic minerals and this allow us to interpret the relationship between magnetic susceptibility variations and climate changes. Our study shows that the climate was significantly dry and hot during the whole studied interval although the interval between 126.3 Ma and 122.98 was a little bit cooler with increased humidity.     

综合物化探方法在铁及多金属矿勘查中的应用——以包恩亨地区为例

研究区位于内蒙古包恩亨一带,地表覆盖较厚,找矿标志不明显,综合物化探方法对发现和圈定铁及多金属异常起到了重要作用,取得了显著成果。总结异常区的地质、地球物理和地球化学特征,对处于同一成矿远景区的其他地段寻找该类型矿床,具有十分重要的意义,为寻找隐伏矿床提供了依据。     

流域坡面汇流研究现状述评

对当前坡面汇流计算方法的研究进展进行了较为系统的总结与分析,并对坡面汇流的非线性效应以及城市低影响开发中的雨水入渗与蓄集对坡面汇流的控制作用进行了简要分析。从模型简单实用的角度出发,认为以流域时间-面积关系与线性水库相串联的ModClark法等为代表的概念性分布式坡面汇流模型具有良好的发展前景;考虑到基于等流时单元的变动等流时线法在反映雨强非线性影响中存在的问题,认为根据水文响应单元在不同雨强条件下汇流时间的变化,调整其汇流参数以反映坡面汇流的非线性效应,对于流域坡面汇流的分布式模拟更具有实际意义;针对目前低影响开发设施长时间序列大空间尺度的室外降雨径流监测资料普遍较为缺乏的现状,给出了后期应积极选择合适的技术以加强低影响开发性能监测工作的建议。