Geohydrological models and earthquake effects at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

 Yucca Mountain, the proposed site for the high-level nuclear waste repository, is located just south of where the present water table begins a sharp rise in elevation. This large hydraulic gradient is a regional feature that extends for over 100 km. Yucca Mountain and its vicinity are underlain by faulted and fractured tuffs with hydraulic conductivities controlled by flow through the fractures. Close to and parallel with the region of large hydraulic gradient, and surrounding the core of the Timber Mountain Caldera, there is a 10- to 20-km-wide zone containing few faults and thus, most likely, few open fractures. Consequently, this zone should have a relatively low hydraulic conductivity, and this inference is supported by the available conductivity measurements in wells near the large hydraulic gradient. Also, slug injection tests indicate significantly higher pressures for fracture opening in wells located near the large hydraulic gradient compared to the opening pressures in wells further to the south, hence implying that lower extensional stresses prevail to the north with consequently fewer open fractures there. Analytical and numerical modeling shows that such a boundary between media of high and low conductivity can produce the observed, large hydraulic gradient, with the high conductivity medium having a lower elevation than the water table. Further, as fractures can close due to tectonic activity, the conductivity of the Yucca Mountain tuffs can be reduced to a value near that for the hydraulic barrier due to strain release by a moderate earthquake. Under these conditions, simulations show that the elevation of the steady-state water table could rise between 150 and 250 m at the repository site. This elevation rise is due to the projected shift in the location of the large hydraulic gradient to the south in response to a moderate earthquake, near magnitude 6, along one of the major normal faults adjacent to Yucca Mountain. As the proposed repository would only be 200–400 m above the present water table, this predicted rise in the water table indicates a potential hazard involving water intrusion. Received: 7 June 1996 / Accepted: 19 November 1996     

地震和测井资料联合反演储层物性参数的方法

为了充分利用测井资料较高的纵向分辨率及其反映井壁周围物性直接准确的特点和地震资料良好的横向可追踪性，针对厚储层和薄储层地震—地质模型分别提出了利用测井和地震资料联合反演纵横波速度和密度参数的方法。理论模型的计算结果表明，反演方法是切实可行的     

研究底板突水的结构力学方法

介绍了研究底板突水的结构力学方法，并用极限弯矩的理论计算得出确定底板隔水层有效厚度之计算公式。     

Prediction of volumes and risk in hydrocarbon exploration: a quantification of geology

 The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure, reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited. Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable, consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables. As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios. Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996     

Seismic Hazard Studies in the U.K.: Source Specification Problems of Intraplate Seismicity

Although the U.K. is in an area of only low to moderate seismicity, the seismic hazard is sufficient to pose a threat to sensitive structures such as chemical plants and nuclear facilities. In quantifying the level of hazard by conventional probabilistic methodology, however, some problems arise in attempting to interpret earthquake data in terms of geological structure and faults. In the U.K., not only is it impossible to identify any demonstrably active faults, but also it is extremely difficult to discern any relationship between the pattern of seismicity and local or regional geological structure.This study discusses the use of two zonation approaches which complement each other in such a way that the general character and trend of seismicity is preserved. In one approach, the zonation is informed by the structural geology, where possible; geological zonation is avoided if it produces sources with heterogeneous seismicity. In the other approach, the record of past earthquakes is divided up into very small zones around individual epicentres or groups of epicentres, the size of each zone usually being proportional to the uncertainty in the epicentral determination of the appropriate event. This zonation preserves an observed tendency of some British earthquakes to repeat themselves. It is suggested that, in intraplate areas such as the U.K., it is often inappropriate to attempt to model individual fault sources. No faults in the U.K. are provably active. Because an earthquake of moderate size can occur on a very short fault segment, it is impractical to restrict fault modelling to major features. Even the two largest U.K. faults, suspected to be active, pose problems in attributing historical seismicity to them as distinct features.     

Conceptually-based shot noise modeling of streamflows at short time interval

A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework, involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins.     

我国磁法勘探的研究与进展

简要概述了我国磁法勘探50年来的研究与进展，主要包括：地面、航空与海洋磁测工作，磁力仪研制与生产，磁异常处理与转换技术，磁异常解释理论与方法，岩石磁性研究，磁法勘探在基础地质研究、固体矿产勘查、油气勘查和其他领域中的应用．     

克服低纬度化磁极困难的有效方法

低纬度地区（尤其是磁赤道附近）磁场化极是长期以来没有很好解决的问题。这里提出的方法只时常规化极稍加改进，通过时化极因子的频点偏移，避开无界点，使化极结果改善很大，甚至在赤道上也可以化极。它既有很高的精度，又因仍是在频率域内进行，故计算方便、快速，非常适合大面积的资料计算     

流体在同心环状空间中流动时的压力损失

同心环状空间是工程上较常见到的流体流动空间，在此空间中流体流动情况的分析较复杂。工程上对其流动情况的分析常常是引用流体力学中的分析结果，但往往由于对环状空间结构的条件重视不够，引用时很容易出毛病。经过仔细推导分析，指出其应用条件，并有助于对同心环状空间中流体流动时压力损失的分析与计算     

地质速率计—矿物氧扩散的应用

概述了同位素封闭体系内的矿物氧扩散和同位素交换机制及其在地质速率计上的应用。火成岩从高温冷却或变质岩从高峰主质温度冷却过程中，由于冷却速度不同，扩散作用导致的矿物晶体内部及晶粒间氧同位素再平衡也有所不同。通过实测岩石中各组成矿物氧同位素比值，模式含量和颗粒半径，据矿物氧扩散和同位素交换模型，可以估算出岩石的冷却速率。