T -distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1

Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.     

Projecting land-use change processes in the Sierra Norte of Oaxaca, Mexico

The objective of study was to explore short-term trends of processes that determine land-use change in Sierra Norte of Oaxaca (SNO), Mexico. Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) were estimated in a complex mosaic of vegetation in the SNO from 1980 to 2000, and projected them to 2020 through a Markovian model. SNO is highly vulnerable to climatic change according to a 2050 GCM scenario. However, 3% annual rate of tropical and temperate forest deforestation from agriculture and livestock encroachment, suggest the threat from land-use change is higher than that from climatic change for this study site. Productive land-use strategies are needed to reduce such high deforestation rates for tropical regions. Controlling deforestation would also reduce short-term effects of CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. Because of the necessity to evaluate anthropogenic ecosystem changes, it is imperative to separate short-term influences such as deforestation, from long-term influences such as climatic change.     

Centennial to millennial geomagnetic secular variation

A time-varying spherical harmonic model of the palaeomagnetic field for 0–7 ka is used to investigate large-scale global geomagnetic secular variation on centennial to millennial scales. We study dipole moment evolution over the past 7 kyr, and estimate its rate of change using the Gauss coefficients of degree 1 (dipole coefficients) from the CALS7K.2 field model and by two alternative methods that confirm the robustness of the predicted variations. All methods show substantial dipole moment variation on timescales ranging from centennial to millennial. The dipole moment from CALS7K.2 has the best resolution and is able to resolve the general decrease in dipole moment seen in historical observations since about 1830. The currently observed rate of dipole decay is underestimated by CALS7K.2, but is still not extraordinarily strong in comparison to the rates of change shown by the model over the whole 7 kyr interval. Truly continuous phases of dipole decrease or increase are decadal to centennial in length rather than longer-term features. The general large-scale secular variation shows substantial changes in power in higher spherical harmonic degrees on similar timescales to the dipole. Comparisons are made between statistical variations calculated directly from CALS7K.2 and longer-term palaeosecular variation models: CALS7K.2 has lower overall variance in the dipole and quadrupole terms, but exhibits an imbalance between dispersion in   g ¹₂  and   h ¹₂  , suggestive of long-term non-zonal structure in the secular variations.     

Effects of fracture lineaments and in-situ rock stresses on groundwater flow in hard rocks: a case study from Sunnfjord, western Norway

Systematic field mapping of fracture lineaments observed on aerial photographs shows that almost all of these structures are positively correlated with zones of high macroscopic and mesoscopic fracture frequencies compared with the surroundings. The lineaments are subdivided into zones with different characteristics: (1) a central zone with fault rocks, high fracture frequency and connectivity but commonly with mineral sealed fractures, and (2) a damage zone divided into a proximal zone with a high fracture frequency of lineament parallel, non-mineralized and interconnected fractures, grading into a distal zone with lower fracture frequencies and which is transitional to the surrounding areas with general background fracturing. To examine the possible relations between lineament architecture and in-situ rock stress on groundwater flow, the geological fieldwork was followed up by in-situ stress measurements and test boreholes at selected sites. Geophysical well logging added valuable information about fracture distribution and fracture flow at depths. Based on the studies of in-situ stresses as well as the lineaments and associated fracture systems presented above, two working hypotheses for groundwater flow were formulated: (i) In areas with a general background fracturing and in the distal zone of lineaments, groundwater flow will mainly occur along fractures parallel with the largest in-situ rock stress, unless fractures are critically loaded or reactivated as shear fractures at angles around 30° to σ_H; (ii) In the influence area of lineaments, the largest potential for groundwater abstraction is in the proximal zone, where there is a high fracture frequency and connectivity with negligible fracture fillings. The testing of the two hypotheses does not give a clear and unequivocal answer in support of the two assumptions about groundwater flow in the study area. But most of the observed data are in agreement with the predictions from the models, and can be explained by the action of the present stress field on pre-existing fractures.     

Natural and man-induced stress evolution of slopes: the Monte Mario hill in Rome

The paper deals with stress-release effects induced by man-made cuts or excavations into natural stiff clay slopes that experienced erosion in response to valley deepening. The study was focused on the Monte Mario hill in Rome (Italy), which formed part of an area of recent urban expansion. The methodology of the study relied on a reference engineering-geology model, which was developed on the basis of site and laboratory data and stress–strain analyses. The latter analyses were carried out with the finite-difference code FLAC 4.0. Numerical modelling was based on a sequential approach, taking into account the main evolutionary stages of the Tiber river valley in Romeȁ9s urban area and then making cuts at the bottom of the slope located south of the Monte Mario Astronomical Observatory. The simulation revealed the stress-release effects that fluvial erosion and excavation fronts have caused on the investigated slopes and their consequent gravitational instabilities. These processes appear with metre-scale displacements, followed by stress-release cracks (actually observed on the slopes under review). In quantifying stress-release deformations, the simulation took into account the possible role of creep in the observed retardation of stress-release effects.Research activities were carried on with the co-operation of Dȁ9Arcangelo A. (Consorzio TREESSE, andrea.darcangelo@libero.it) and Moretti S. (IMG S.r.l. Servizi Tecnici per lȁ9Ingegneria e lȁ9Ambiente, moretti@img-srl.it)     

Initiation and development of pull-apart basins with Riedel shear mechanism: insights from scaled clay experiments

Typical pull-apart structures were created in scaled clay experiments with a pure strike-slip geometry (Riedel type experiments). A clay slab represents the sedimentary cover above a strike-slip fault in the rigid basement. At an early stage of the development of the deformation zone, synthetic shear fractures (Riedel shears) within the clay slab display dilatational behaviour. With increasing basal displacement the Riedel shears rotate and open further, developing into long, narrow and deep troughs. The shear displacement and the low angle with the prescribed principal basal fault set them apart from tension gashes. At a more evolved stage, synthetic segments (Y-shears) parallel to the basal principal fault develop and accommodate progressive strike-slip deformation. The Y-shears connect the tips of adjacent troughs developed from the earlier Riedel shears, resulting in the typical rhomb-shaped structures characteristic for pull-apart basins. The Strait of Sicily rift zone, with major strike-slip systems being active from the Miocene to the Present, comprises pull-apart basins at different length scales, for which the structural record suggests development by a mechanism similar to that observed in our experiments.     

基于土质边坡塑性极限分析条分法的可靠度计算方法研究

从土塑性极限分析上限定理出发,以土质边坡塑性极限分析条分法为基础,在引入可靠性分析方法(JC法)后,建立了土质边坡塑性极限分析条分法可靠度极限状态方程,并推导得到了塑性极限分析条分法可靠度计算公式。这种方法实现了定值计算向不确定性计算的转变,同时可靠度指标的计算结果具有概率的意义。     

基于点重要度的地形LOD简化算法及精度

在分析、讨论目前关于3维地形模型简化与误差控制方法的基础上,提出了一种基于点重要度进行连续LOD模型简化的算法.并以5种典型地貌的实验数据作为运行实例,给出了点重要度与地貌类型之间的精度关系.这为今后连续LOD模型的合理建立提供了一种新思路和方法,也为模型的简化提供了科学依据.