Insights into Convective-scale Predictability in East China: Error Growth Dynamics and Associated Impact on Precipitation of Warm-Season Convective Events

This study investigated the regime-dependent predictability using convective-scale ensemble forecasts initialized with different initial condition perturbations in the Yangtze and Huai River basin(YHRB) of East China. The scale-dependent error growth(ensemble variability) and associated impact on precipitation forecasts(precipitation uncertainties) were quantitatively explored for 13 warm-season convective events that were categorized in terms of strong forcing and weak forcing. The forecast err...     

Growth Management and Resident Satisfaction with Local Public Services

The lack of timely survey data on resident satisfaction with local public services makes it difficult to verify the legitimacy of resident concerns with the effects of rapid population growth. This study attempts to verify the legitimacy of such concerns by analyzing survey data on resident service satisfaction in a rapidly growing county in Northern Virginia. Using an empirical model that simultaneously incorporates individual- and community-level predictors of resident service satisfaction seems to support resident's concerns; resident service satisfaction is significantly lower in the area of the county (the eastern part) where most new development has occurred. This finding suggests that residents living in comparatively low density communities in the fastest-growing area of the county are not very satisfied with services. One explanation is that these services are not yet in place so they compare unfavorably with the services residents experienced in the communities from which they came.     

In-situ Growth of Calcite at Devils Hole, Nevada: Comparison of Field and Laboratory Rates to a 500,000 Year Record of Near-Equilibrium Calcite Growth

Calcite grew continuously for 500,000 years on the submerged walls of an open fault plane (Devils Hole) in southern Nevada, U.S.A. at rates of 0.3 to 1.3 mm/ka, but ceased growing approximately 60,000 years ago, even though the fault plane remained open and was continuously submerged. The maximum initial in-situ growth rate on pre-weighed crystals of Iceland spar placed in Devils Hole (calcite saturation index, SI, is 0.16 to 0.21 at 33.7 °C) for growth periods of 0.75 to 4.5 years was 0.22 mm/ka. Calcite growth on seed crystals slowed or ceased following initial contact with Devils Hole groundwater. Growth rates measured in synthetic Ca-HCO₃ solutions at 34 °C, CO₂ partial pressures of 0.101, 0.0156 (similar to Devils Hole groundwater) and 0.00102 atm, and SI values of 0.2 to 1.9 were nearly independent of P_{CO 2}, decreased with decreasing saturation state, and extrapolated through the historical Devils Hole rate. The results show that calcite growth rate is highly sensitive to saturation state near equilibrium. A calcite crystal retrieved from Devils Hole, and used without further treatment of its surface, grew in synthetic Devils Hole groundwater when the saturation index was raised nearly 10-fold that of Devils Hole water, but the rate was only 1/4 that of fresh laboratory crystals that had not contacted Devils Hole water. Apparently, inhibiting processes that halted calcite growth in Devils Hole 60,000 years ago continue today.     

菊花石生长几何模型

通过与ＤＬＡ模型类比,建立起一个菊花石生长几何模型,分析了菊花石生长过程中的“间距分叉”现象及花瓣间距Ｈ的演变规律及速率,并对比分析了菊花石实际形貌与生长模型形态的异同和原因。     

华北克拉通东北部新太古代晚期地壳生长:来自板石沟表壳岩年代学和Hf同位素的证据

对板石沟表壳岩中的斜长角闪岩和角闪片岩进行了锆石U-Pb年代学、地球化学以及Hf同位素分析,以探讨华北克拉通东北部新太古代晚期的构造环境和地壳演化。板石沟表壳岩主要岩石类型包括斜长角闪岩、斜长片麻岩、角闪片岩和磁铁石英岩,LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb测年显示斜长角闪岩(BA-1)岩浆锆石形成于2548±11Ma,绿帘角闪片岩(BA-6)岩浆锆石形成于2548±23Ma,代表了表壳岩的形成时代,在绿帘角闪片岩中识别出3颗年龄为2754±80Ma~2710±92Ma的捕获锆石,表明板石沟地区可能存在新太古代早期岩浆事件。斜长角闪岩和角闪片岩的原岩为玄武质火山岩,微量元素特征指示其形成于岛弧环境。Hf同位素分析结果显示斜长角闪岩εHf(t)为正值(0.29~8.89),单阶段模式年龄(tDM1)分布在2877~2469Ma之间,绿帘角闪片岩多具正的εHf(t)值(-0.78~8.03),tDM1介于2871~2544Ma,表明岩浆主要来源于亏损地幔,伴随少量古老地壳物质的再造,部分tDM1与207Pb/206Pb年龄相近,并同时具有高εHf(t)值的锆石反映板石沟地区新太古代晚期(2550Ma)发生过地壳增生事件。结合其他地区表壳岩研究成果,认为华北克拉通可能存在新太古代吉-辽-冀弧陆碰撞造山带,板石沟地区属于该造山带的一部分。     

阿尔金断裂剪切过程中定向生长锆石的发现及其意义—来自于显微构造和锆石内部矿物包裹体的证据

阿尔金断裂带中段出露一套走滑过程中形成的花岗质和角闪质糜棱岩。从糜棱岩中分选出3种类型的锆石:岩浆成因的长柱状锆石、柱状锆石和变质成因的次浑圆状锆石。这3种锆石的显微结构和构造特征以及它们内部的矿物包裹体均有所区别。其中长柱状锆石在岩石中定向排列,晶体长轴方向与拉伸线理方向一致,并且内部的所有矿物包裹体的长轴方向均与锆石的长轴方向平行,即与拉伸线理方向平行;拉曼研究表明包裹体矿物具熔融相特征;阴极发光图像中反映出这种锆石具有相对均一的内部结构。因此,该长柱状锆石是在韧性剪切过程中部分熔融环境下快速定向生长的,不仅代表了走滑剪切过程中的剪切应变方向,而且其生长年龄代表了走滑剪切的时代。     

Small macro‐benthic invertebrates influence the survival,growth and behaviour of juvenile green sea urchins Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis in the laboratory

Recent settlers of many marine benthic invertebrates are cryptic, which exposes them to a suite of animals that differs from those they may experience as adults, potentially resulting in interactions causing mortality and/or reducing growth. Previous field experiments have indicated that such is the case with small juvenile green sea urchins Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis but which taxa are responsible for the mortality and reduced growth was not determined. A laboratory study was conducted to examine the effects of small macro‐benthic invertebrates, specifically chitons, scaleworms and larger juvenile conspecifics, as well as the full suite of cobble‐dwelling organisms, on the mortality, growth and behaviour of small (<3 mm) juvenile sea urchins. The likelihood of survival of small juvenile sea urchins was lower in the presence of larger juvenile sea urchins or with the full suite of cobble‐dwelling organisms than in the absence of animals. The small juvenile sea urchins survived and grew the best when they were with chitons and scaleworms. The behaviour of small sea urchins with the full suite of cobble‐dwelling organisms was more cryptic than the behaviour of urchins with scaleworms. This study indicates that interactions with the suite of small organisms living amongst cobbles can affect survival, growth and behaviour of small juvenile sea urchins, and that larger juvenile sea urchins can be a source of mortality for smaller conspecifics.     

Height matters: position above the substratum influences the growth of two demosponge species

In benthic communities sponges commonly outcompete other organisms in the race for suitable space. Superior competitive ability allows them to grow and overgrow other sessile organisms, some of these being octocorals. Acquiring substratum space, a resource often more limiting than food, is the obvious benefit of these competitive interactions. However, sponges that overgrow larger structures such as branching octocorals also change their position in the water column, and potentially their access to food and exposure to grazers. This study explored the potential benefit of sponge–octocoral associations by examining the effect of height off the bottom on growth of two species of ropelike demosponges under natural conditions. The growths of Amphimedon compressa and Iotrochota birotulata were monitored over 12 months at Cross Harbour, Great Abaco, The Bahamas, using small (5‐cm) sponge fragments that were established at three heights above the bottom (0–5, 30, 60 cm). Growth rates differed among the two species and among different heights. Over 12 months, the mean volumetric growth for A. compressa was 17.7 cm³ ± 1.4 compared with 8.9 cm³ ± 1.4 for I. birotulata. Both species had a higher growth rate at the 60‐cm level. These results suggest that these ropelike sponges benefit from their association and growth on octocorals, not only by using the octocoral skeletal axis as support, but also by acquiring exposure to higher water flow.     

我国铜产业生命周期增长趋势与需求预测

[摘 要] 随着中国经济的高速发展,国内铜需求持续增加,带动了我国铜产业的不断扩张。本文的 研究基于产业生命周期的理论,利用现有发达国家有色金属产业的生命周期特点的实证支持,采用先期 发达工业化国家成熟且较完整的产业生命周期的经验数据,结合我国实际情况,运用生长曲线模型来剖 析我国铜产业生命周期的发展趋势,预测我国铜产业在2015 年前后增长的极限,届时我国铜需求为800 万t 左右,人均需求量为6～7kg。