多平台MC-SBAS长时序建模与形变提取方法

卫星时序差分雷达干涉已在区域地表形变监测中展现出极好的应用潜力,但因受卫星寿命及重访周期等因素的限制,单一卫星平台很难为长时间跨度(如5~10年)的时序形变计算与分析提供数据源。为扩展区域地表形变监测的时间跨度,本文提出了基于模型约束的短基线集(MC-SBAS)时序干涉方法,即使用非线性形变模型约束SBAS分析与处理,达到不同卫星平台数据融合和形变监测效率提高的目的。研究选取美国南加州地区为试验区域,使用2002—2005年获取的10幅ERS SAR影像和2004—2008年获取的20幅EnviSat ASAR影像,基于MC-SBAS提取该区域时序形变信息,时间跨度扩展为6.5年;以6个GPS站时序观测数据为参考,对MC-SBAS结果和常规SBAS结果进行了对比验证。分析表明,MC-SBAS、SBAS与GPS形变结果的均方根误差分别为8.7和11.7mm,MC-SBAS形变序列的连续性得到有效改善,而且形变监测精度得到提高。     

Heat flux estimate of warm water flow in a low-temperature diffuse flow site, southern East Pacific Rise 17°25′ S

A low-temperature diffuse flow site associated with abundant vent fauna was found by submersible observations on the southern East Pacific Rise at 17°25′ S in 1997. This site was characterized by thin sediment covered pillow and sheet lavas with collapsed pits up to ∼15 m in diameter. There were three warm water vents (temperature: 6.5 to 10.5 °C) within the site above which the vented fluids rise as plumes. To estimate heat flux of the warm water vents, a temperature logger array was deployed and the vertical temperature distribution in the water column up to 38 m above the seafloor was monitored. A stationary deep seafloor observatory system was also deployed to monitor hydrothermal activity in this site. The temperature logger array measured temperature anomalies, while the plumes from the vents passed through the array. Because the temperature anomalies were measured in only specific current directions, we identified one of the vents as the source. Heat flux from the vent was estimated by applying a plume model in crossflow in a density-stratified environment. The average heat flux from September 13 to October 18, 1997 was 39 MW. This heat flux is as same order as those of high-temperature black smokers, indicating that a large volume flux was discharged from the vent (1.9 m³/s). Previous observations found many similar warm water flow vents along the spreading axis between 17°20′ S–30′ S. The total heat flux was estimated to be at least a few hundred mega-watts. This venting style would contribute to form effluent hydrothermal plumes extended above the spreading axis.     

珠江三角洲及河网形成演变的数值模拟和地貌动力学分析:距今6000~2500a

珠江三角洲是我国一个极其复杂的大尺度河口系统,具有独特的河网体系和河口湾.为了探讨距今6 000 a以来珠江三角洲和河网的形成演变,提出一个长周期动力形态模型(PRD-LTMM)并讨论长周期模拟方法的建模和验证思想,重建了距今6 000 a海进盛期的古珠江河口湾的水下地形作为模型的初始边界.在模型中考虑的驱动力和控制因素包括代表潮、河流流量、泥沙输入、海平面变化、沉积物压实率及新构造运动等.分析和计算了三角洲总沉积量、有效堆积空间和沉积速率,用于模型控制和校验.应用必要的模型约减技术,实际模拟了长周期模型.34个14C测年钻孔资料初步验证了模型的正确性,一些古文化遗迹证据可以印证模拟结果.地貌动力学分析进一步论证了计算结果的合理性,阐述了模型输出的地学意义.现阶段的研究揭示出海进盛期以来珠江三角洲的时空演进过程具有一些与已有研究成果大不相同的新的特征.提出距今6 000 a以来珠江三角洲等沉积时间线和若干沉积模式.珠江三角洲发育演变及其特征在很大程度上源自其继承性的地质地貌构造所造成的独特的古海湾构造形态及其对河流和海洋动力分布的重塑.珠江河口的“门”及其双向射流动力体系对珠江三角洲和河网主干,特别对口门的形成演变起了控制性的作用,模拟结果还表明,古珠江河口湾中散落的众多基岩岛丘边沿沉积是影响珠江三角洲长期演变的重要因素.     

Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Structure of Macrobenthic Assemblages. A Three-Year Study in the Northern Adriatic Sea in Front of the Po River Delta

Abstract. Coastal benthic communities in soft-bottom deposits of a restricted area were studied by seasonal sampling at nine stations. Faunal assemblages at three different depths were consistently different and exhibited a seasonal pattern of abundance and diversity. Multivariate statistical analyses suggest that each community structure is very similar during the three summer samplings; in autumn and winter many causes of disturbance can disrupt this structure, which is reconstituted the following summer. The stability of benthic communities in this physically variable environment is discussed and a "cyclic" adjustment mechanism of stability is proposed to explain the dynamics of the benthos in this area.     

Successful colonization of the calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa in the oligo-mesohaline area of the Gironde estuary (SW France) – Natural or anthropogenic forcing?

The copepod Acartia tonsa appeared in Europe in the first half of the 20th century and colonized progressively European seas and estuaries, possibly transferred from North Atlantic Coast of America. It had been reported in the polyhaline area of the Gironde estuary for a long time but was first recorded in the oligo-mesohaline area in 1983. Its abundance has been increasing significantly. High abundances of A. tonsa were reported since 1999, supplanting the abundances of its autochthonous congeneric species, Acartia bifilosa. This colonization was characterized by analyzing the mean seasonal variability: (1) for three 5-year periods corresponding to three different steps of A. tonsa appearance (1978–1982, A. tonsa was absent; 1988–1992, low abundances of the species; and 1999–2003, high abundances of A. tonsa) in the oligo-mesohaline area and (2) for three stations distributed along the salinity gradient during the recent period. The aim of this work was to define if this colonization was due to natural or anthropogenic forcing and to evaluate its possible impact on autochthonous zooplanktonic community.Both natural and anthropogenic forcings seem to explain the colonization of Acartia tonsa in the oligo-mesohaline area of the Gironde estuary. First records (1983–1988) could be due to marine water inputs caused by high values of the North Atlantic Oscillation index. The global warming which caused the increase of the summer warm period, the marinisation of the system and the local decrease of the turbidity should have been the key factors favoring the establishment of the species. Anthropogenic forcings as the establishment of the nuclear power plant which locally causes warmer conditions are also important factors explaining the differences of seasonal cycle observed between oligo-mesohaline area and other stations: the seasonal pattern of A. tonsa in the oligo-mesohaline area was indeed characterized by an autumnal peak of abundances which has been observed in other stations and in many North European estuaries, and by a second spring peak that had only been observed in Southern estuaries.The introduction of Acartia tonsa in the Gironde estuary significantly changed the seasonal pattern of autochthonous copepods, by limiting their seasonal abundances without affecting their long-term population stability. Finally, the successful colonization of A. tonsa had led to the spread of the seasonal zooplanktonic production which could have had an impact on fish and shrimp productions.     

黄河三角洲近40年来气候变化趋势及异常特征

本文采用利津站1962－2000年的平均气温（T）、降水量（R）和平均风速（V）资料表征黄河三角洲的气候变化状态。分析显示，近40年来该地区的气候变化具有：气温的长期变化呈变暖趋势，40年来年平均气温约增高了1.4℃，同时，异常高温国年均出现在90年代，而异常低温年均出现在60年代；平均风速呈明显变小趋势，40年来年平均风速减小了约1.5m/s；降水量具有明显的13－15年周期。     

Trends in frequency of precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River basin,China: 1960–2003 / Tendances d'évolution de la fréquence des précipitations extrêmes entre 1960 et 2003 dans le bassin versant du Fleuve Yangtze (Chine)

Abstract

The spatial distribution and trends in the frequency of precipitation extremes over the last 44 years (1960–2003), especially since 1990, have been analysed using daily precipitation data from 147 stations in the Yangtze River basin. The research results are as follows: (1) The 15 mm precipitation isohyet approximately divides the precipitation extremes (corresponding to the 95th percentile) of the stations in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches (higher) from those of the upper Yangtze reaches (lower). Also the starting time of the precipitation extremes in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches is earlier than of those in the upper Yangtze reaches. Precipitation extremes are concentrated mostly in June in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches, and July in the upper Yangtze reaches. (2) During the period 1960–2003, the first two decades had fewer precipitation extremes than the last two decades. There have been significant increasing trends and step changes in frequency of annual total precipitation extremes and precipitation extremes with a 1–5 day gap in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches. Precipitation extremes occur more frequently in shorter periods, separated by a few days. Precipitation extremes are also becoming more concentrated in the month with the highest frequency of extremes (June) in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches. In the upper Yangtze reaches, there is an upward tendency of extreme events in June. Increasing precipitation extremes in June for both the middle and lower, and the upper Yangtze reaches will increase the probability of flooding if the observed trends of the last 40 years continue into the future.