The role of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the development and predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is examined using a large set of idealized numerical experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the onset time of rapid intensification of TC gradually decreases, and the peak intensity of TC gradually increases, with the increased magnitude of SST. The predictability limits of the maximum 10 m wind speed (MWS) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) are ~72 and ~84 hours, respectively. Comparisons of the analyses of variance for different simulation time confirm that the MWS and MSLP have strong signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) from 0-72 hours and a marked decrease beyond 72 hours. For the horizontal and vertical structures of wind speed, noticeable decreases in the magnitude of SNR can be seen as the simulation time increases, similar to that of the SLP or perturbation pressure. These results indicate that the SST as an external forcing signal plays an important role in TC intensity for up to 72 hours, and it is significantly weakened if the simulation time exceeds the predictability limits of TC intensity. 相似文献
It has been found that stream waters were severely contaminated with wastes from a long-time smelting factory in Hezhang, Guizhou, China. The main sources of contamination are the smelting wastes stored in the open air and abandoned in the vicinity of stream. A method of lead isotope was adopted in order to identify relations between tailings and water contamination. Representative samples of tailings and stream sediments were collected. Mineralogical characterizations were conducted using XRD and TEM/SEM, while acid digestion was carried out for determining metal contents. BCR sequential leaching tests were performed in order to assess metal mobility. The tremendous ‘actual' and ‘potential' mobility of heavy metals indicates that the smelting waste and stream sediments present a considerable threat to the environment. Besides the chemical remobilization of heavy metals from the sediments and the reworking of riverbed sediments act as a secondary source of pollution. Also groundwater and stream water were sampled in specific locations and were measured. 相似文献