Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty

Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can be implemented.     

The Quantitative Identification of Regional Mine and Natural Earthquakes and Its Application

INTRODUCTIONThe structural mine earthquake in coal mines refers to the quake induced by excavationengineeringthatleadstorupturingor change of geological structure and weakness surfaceintheinteriorof rock mass.According to the origin,mine earthquakes can b…     

Ancient sand-rich submarine fans: depositional systems, models, identification, and analysis

Sand-rich submarine fans are radial or curved in plan view depending on the slope of the basin floor. They occur isolated or in coalescing systems. The fans' average lateral extent measures close to 25 km and their thickness usually less than 300 m. The thickness of outer fan sequences averages around 120 m and that of middle fan successions around 160 m. Rarely reported inner fan sequences have a maximum thickness of 80 m.

The formation of sand-rich fans is closely related to tectonic activity. Their sediment is coarse-grained and compositionally immature as indicated by significant feldspar content due to close provenance and rapid transport by short rivers with a steep gradient controlled by tectonism. Tectonic activity also provides for narrow shelves making the fans relatively insensitive to sealevel changes. Formation of sand-rich fans typically occurs in restricted continental basins. The tectonic settings are highly variable. Sand-rich fans typically receive their sediment through submarine canyons which intercept sand from longshore drift and/or are fed more or less directly by regional rivers.

The type of ancient fan system (radial, curved, isolated, coalescing) may be identified through paleocurrent map plots, facies map sketches, recognition of lateral thickness variations and sediment influx centers, as well as lateral bed correlations defining the minimum fan extent.

Important in distinguishing different environments of ancient fans are detailed measured sections, their comparison and correlation. Channelized inner fan and middle fan deposits may be distinguished from the unchannelized outer fan successions through bed correlation tests which reflect their different stratigraphic architectures and bedding patterns. Bedding in outer fan deposits (lobes) is relatively simple, parallel, and regular. The lateral bed continuity is relatively high. Channel fills, especially those of middle fan distributary channels, display a complicated bedding pattern with vertical and lateral random distribution of channel fills, axial erosion, and bed convergence towards the channel margins. Channel fills exhibit only linear bed continuity. Thus, the probability in carrying out local to regional scale lateral bed correlations is almost exclusively limited to outer fan deposits.

The measured sections will help further distinguish fan environments by revealing: (1) different facies associations in outer fan sequences (mainly B, C and D) and middle fan successions (mainly A, B, C, D, and channel margin facies); (2) greater average bed and layer thicknesses in middle fan as opposed to outer fan successions (“bed” and “layer” as used herein); (3) more frequent amalgamation surfaces in channel fills than in unchannelized outer fan deposits; (4) more frequent tabular amalgamation surfaces in outer fan sections; (5) more frequent nontabular amalgamation surfaces in channel fills; and (6) more frequent dish structures in middle fan than outer fan successions.

Rarely exposed fan valley fills may be identified by coarse conglomerates. Moreover, in proximity to fan valley fills, relatively mud-rich sediments may be observed that derive from the depositional system of the basin slope.     

利用地震属性研究准噶尔盆地西北缘拐19井区下侏罗统三工河组沉积环境

在准噶尔盆地西北缘，寻找岩性圈闭油气藏已是至关重要的问题。但人们几乎还是用常规的手段来寻找岩性油气藏，没有实质性进展。本文是以利用宽方位角采集的地震数据为基础，对数据进行高保真资料处理和参考标准层的层拉平解释。利用前人的区域地质研究成果和钻井解释成果对侏罗系的沉积环境进行了精细的描述，确定了拐19井区在下侏罗统三工河组的出油层段附近的沉积环境由湖泊相－三角洲前缘相－河流相－湖泊相的演化过程。利用地震属性解释的结果也能较好地反映目标区的沉积环境变迁，并且与区域地质、测井解释结果相吻合，为寻找油气提供了很好的依据。由此得出利用地震属性可以进行沉积环境变迁分析，为油田寻找岩性圈闭及油气藏做出贡献。     

Under stress permeability determination of the Meuse/Haute-Marne mudstone

In the underground waste isolation projects such as the ANDRA'one in the site of Bure, the transport properties of the surrounding rock mass is of fundamental importance. To measure very low permeability, we use the modified version of the pulse test proposed by Hsieh et al. [Hsieh, P.A., Tracy, J.V., Neuzil, C.E., Bredehoeft, J.D., Silliman, S.E., 1981. A transient laboratory method for determining the hydraulic properties of ‘tight’ rocks — I. Theory. Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. Geomech. Abstr. Vol. 18, pp. 245-252] which enables the intrinsic permeability, k, and the specific storage coefficient, S_s, of rocks such as mudstone to be characterized. In this paper, the special effort performed on the laboratory apparatus design, to ensure a good sensitivity of the rock response with respect to both parameters, k and S_s, is presented. In addition, two parameters identification procedures are proposed: the graphical method given by Hsieh et al. [Hsieh, P.A., Tracy, J.V., Neuzil, C.E., Bredehoeft, J.D., Silliman, S.E., 1981. A transient laboratory method for determining the hydraulic properties of ‘tight’ rocks — I. Theory. Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. Geomech. Abstr. Vol. 18, pp. 245-252] and a parameter identification based on the solution of an inverse problem. The efficiency of the apparatus design and the parameters identification procedures is then demonstrated though some pulse tests performed on the Meuse/Haute-Marne mudstone.     

Enhancement of backtracking search algorithm for identifying soil parameters

In this paper, an enhanced backtracking search algorithm (so-called MBSA-LS) for parameter identification is proposed with two modifications: (a) modifying the mutation of original backtracking search algorithm (BSA) considering the contribution of current best individual for accelerating convergence speed and (b) novelly incorporating an efficient differential evolution (DE) as local search for improving the quality of population. The proposed MBSA-LS is first validated with better performance than the original BSA and some other typical state-of-the-art optimization algorithms on a benchmark of soil parameter identification in terms of effectiveness, efficiency, and robustness. Then, the efficiency of the MBSA-LS is further illustrated by two representative cases: identifying soil parameters from both laboratory tests and field measurements. All comparisons demonstrate that the proposed MBSA-LS algorithm can give accurate results in a short time. Finally, to conveniently solve the problems of parameter identification, a practical tool ErosOpt for parameter identification is developed by integrating the proposed MBSA-LS and some other efficient algorithms for readers to conduct the parameter identification using optimisation algorithms.     

X射线衍射技术应用于宝石鉴定-合成及晶体结构研究进展

因宝石检测常附带无损要求、宝石评价具科学性和不确定性等特点,X射线衍射(XRD)在宝石学这门矿物学的分支学科中的应用具有特殊性,其应用领域主要集中在三个方面。①宝石鉴定领域:对单晶宝石和多晶宝石进行物相鉴定、宝石产地特征研究以及宝石矿物多型的种类划分等。例如根据XRD图谱,可将品种繁多的微晶石英隐晶质变种玉髓中不同的SiO₂质矿物相精确区分;通过黏土矿物成分及其含量可将鸡血石中"地"的种类进行划分。②宝石矿物的晶体结构研究:对成分复杂的单晶宝石进行晶体化学分析、获取矿物类质同象替代情况、利用结晶度划分宝石品质。例如晶格参数中的c/a比值可将绿柱石的Al八面体类质同象替代和Be四面体类质同象替代进行区分;软玉中通过XRD数据计算出的结晶度与软玉的品质关系密切。③宝石学研究技术的开发:对宝石的优化处理过程进行监测,在宝石合成过程中检验矿物晶形大小、结晶质量及内应力等,以有机宝石的晶体结构为基础的人工养殖技术研究。例如尖晶石在热处理过程中,Mg离子由四面体中的T位迁移至八面体中的M位,导致M-O和T-O键长随温度变化,并反映在尖晶石的色调中;在托帕石合成过程中,XRD数据显示770~800℃时形成含氟托帕石(与天然托帕石结构相同),而在950℃和1000℃出现含氟托帕石离解成刚玉和莫来石。目前,我国在宝石学的XRD应用方面起步较晚,国外在宝石鉴定、优化与合成方面的应用相对成熟。本文认为,该技术与扫描电镜、质子探针等分析技术的联用仍有很大发展空间。     

风暴分类识别技术在人工防雹中的应用

利用新一代多普勒天气雷达资料,在风暴跟踪识别算法的基础上,发展了风暴分类技术,以提高人工防雹作业指挥的效率。首先以SCIT算法为基础,结合风暴的结构特征,综合利用雷达、探空资料,自动提取风暴结构特征指数;其次采用基于决策树模型的风暴自动分类技术,将风暴按强度分为雷雨云、单体风暴、多单体风暴和强风暴;最后根据风暴强度、高度和位置等属性,对有可能产生冰雹的单体,结合GIS,自动对下游方向或附近作业点进行预警或输出作业参数。通过对2006—2014年期间重庆、辽宁大连和河南三门峡三地发生的较为典型的31次冰雹天气过程、182站次冰雹样本的检验来看:该方法通过对风暴按强度、垂直结构等综合属性进行分类,能有效提高冰雹识别的命中率、降低空报率,其中强风暴的命中率能达到100%,空报率仅为11.4%。能有效提高人工防雹作业的自动化程度,对防雹作业的科学决策有着重要参考作用。     

利用双线偏振雷达分析人工防雹作业效果

以北京市平谷区2011年6月11日防雹作业为例,利用双线偏振雷达资料,选取与作业区条件十分接近的云块为对比区,根据回波移动方向和速度,跟踪分析在不同高度上防雹作业前后云体宏观结构特征和粒子相态等微物理变化过程。作业后云体所呈现特征为:1作业区的云顶高度、强回波中心高度迅速下降,对比区变化不明显;2作业区水平反射率Zh减小,差分反射率Zdr、零相关系数ρhv增大,单位差分传播相移Kdp小范围内波动,对比区Zh、Zdr、Kdp变化不明显;ρhv增大;3作业区对流减弱,高层较大冰雹粒子、大雨滴下沉明显,最终以霰粒子为主;而对比区域则对流仍然旺盛,冰雹粒子有增多趋势。以上特征表明防雹作业可有效抑制冰雹胚胎成长为冰雹的过程,通过偏振雷达观测参量可对防雹作业效果进行较好的验证。     

海-塔盆地中部断陷带南屯组沉积体系配置及有利相带分析

本文充分利用岩芯、测井、地震及分析化验等资料,对海-塔盆地中部断陷带4个主力凹陷的南屯组砂体类型及分布特征进行了详细研究。结果表明,南屯组主要发育扇三角洲、近岸水下扇、辫状河三角洲和湖底扇等4种典型类型砂体,并从沉积背景、发育部位、沉积特征、搬运机制以及地震反射特征等5个方面,分不同角度、不同层次详细阐述了扇三角洲、近岸水下扇、辫状河三角洲和湖底扇的识别标志;其中扇三角洲主要分布在乌尔逊凹陷和贝尔凹陷的陡坡带,近岸水下扇主要分布在南贝尔凹陷和塔南凹陷的陡坡带,而辫状河三角洲主要分布乌尔逊凹陷、贝尔凹陷和南贝尔凹陷的缓坡带。从盆地边部向盆地中心方向,沉积相由扇三角洲、近岸水下扇和辫状河三角洲沉积逐渐过渡为半深湖-深湖相沉积,局部半深湖-深湖相中发育湖底扇沉积体系,整体具有“南北分块、东西分带”的沉积格局。综合研究表明,扇三角洲前缘、近岸水下扇中扇和辫状河三角洲前缘砂体是油气富集的有利沉积相带,而洼槽边缘的湖底扇砂体为岩性油气藏勘探的重点对象。