The effect of land cover change on duration and severity of high and low flows

Land cover has been increasingly recognized as an important factor affecting hydrologic processes at the basin and regional level. Therefore, improved understanding of how land cover change affects hydrologic systems is needed for better management of water resources. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of land cover change on the duration and severity of high and low flows by using the Soil Water Assessment Tool model, Bayesian model averaging and copulas. Two basins dominated by different land cover in the Ohio River basin are used as study area in this study. Two historic land covers from the 1950s and 1990s are considered as input to the Soil Water Assessment Tool model, thereby investigating the hydrologic high and low flow response of different land cover conditions of these two basins. The relationships between the duration and severity of both low and high flow are defined by applying the copula method; changes in the frequency of the duration and severity are investigated. The results show that land cover changes affect both the duration and severity of both high and low flows. An increase in forest area leads to a decrease in the duration and severity during both high and low flows, but its impact is highest during extreme flows. The results also show that the land cover changes have had significant influences on changes in the joint return periods of duration and severity of low and high flows. While this study sheds light on the role of land cover change on severity and duration of high and low flow conditions, more studies using various land cover conditions and climate types are required in order to draw more reliable conclusions in the future. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于网络游记的城市旅游流网络结构演化研究——以北京市为例

采用网络游记文本数据,结合爬虫技术和社会网络分析方法,分析北京市"十二五"和"十三五"时期城市旅游客流网络结构的演变特征。结果表明:①城市旅游流网络结构存在不均衡性,城市历史文化遗产节点的的影响控制能力强,新兴旅游吸引物的集聚能力相对较弱,受不同类型节点的路径依赖效应的影响,这种差异存在动态扩大特征。②城市旅游流网络结构呈现显著的等级分层结构和节点分散分布特征,传统游憩场所是城市旅游流的核心节点,外围发育的旅游节点较分散且规模能级提升空间较大。③城市旅游流拥有显著的赋能效应、倒逼效应和联通效应。     

非饱和带水-气二相流数值模拟研究进展

通过对近年来水-气二相流数值模拟情况的分析,总结了在水-气二相流模拟过程中,各个主要参数或物理过程的数学概化方法,以及近年来求解水-气二相流方程和污染物运移方程的各种方法,论述了各种方法的优点和不足.并提出了需进一步研究解决的问题.     

石灰岩细观力学特性的颗粒流模拟

岩体地区地质灾害的发生和发展取决于岩石细观组分的运动学行为。研究岩石运动学行为时通常将岩石作为整体研究对象较多,而直接以细观组分为对象的研究较少。以石灰岩为例,根据室内试验获得的岩石力学性质指标,使用基于非连续介质理论的颗粒流方法,将材料离散成刚性颗粒组成的模型,把颗粒细观变化与宏观力学特性联系起来,建立了石灰岩的细观结构模型,获得了颗粒接触力、颗粒接触模量、接触连接强度和连接刚度比等细观力学参数。由于文中直接以细观成分为研究对象、反映了岩石和岩体组成的本质特点,所得结论不仅对含裂隙岩石本构关系研究具有广阔的应用前景,而且对岩体工程性质和地质灾害机制研究也具有重要的理论意义。     

新疆北天山巴音沟蛇绿岩的地质特征

巴音沟蛇绿岩虽受强热构造作用肢解,但仍保存有较完整的蛇纹石化超基性岩、状层辉长岩、基性熔岩(下部块状、上部枕状)和放射虫硅质岩的层序组合。岩石化学、地球化学、放射虫等古生物资料表明,它代表一个中石炭世陆缘海盆迅速扩张形成的洋壳和上地幔的残片。其侵位发生在中石炭世未海盆的封闭期间。     

大渡河长河坝水电站区域泥石流特征及危险性评价

2009年7月23日,四川省甘孜州康定县舍联乡长河坝水电站施工区响水沟发生特大泥石流灾害,造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失。响水沟是大渡河上游段右岸一级支沟,近百年来泥石流活动不明显。由于之前近一个月的连续降雨,沟谷内的不稳定堆积物已基本处于饱水状态,当日的强降雨直接诱发了此次泥石流灾害。本文根据现场调查资料,就该沟泥石流的形成条件、灾害成因及特征进行分析,并应用灰色系统理论关联分析方法和沟谷泥石流危险度计算分析综合评价其危险性。结果表明,在极端气象条件下,响水沟仍有可能发生中等至大规模暴雨型粘性泥石流。     

考虑破碎的堆石料颗粒流数值模拟

以双江口300 m级高土石坝为工程背景,根据有关资料的试验数据,利用二维颗粒流计算机仿真技术对堆石料在一定围压下的颗粒破碎情况进行了数值模拟,数值试样由2 574个簇颗粒单元组成。数值模拟与室内平面应变试验结果对比表明,用选定的细观参数进行数值模拟与平面应变试验结果基本一致,说明用颗粒流方法进行数值模拟能够较好的再现堆石料的颗粒破碎特性。与室内试验相比,数值仿真模拟还能得到颗粒破碎的细观演化规律和破碎带的分布范围,从而为进一步建立考虑颗粒破碎的堆石坝本构模型,研究大坝填筑、水库蓄水过程以及地震情况下的颗粒破碎过程以及颗粒破碎所引起的坝体变形提供了一条途径。     

Why is Shirase Glacier turning its flow direction eastward?

We applied an image correlation method to Japanese Earth Resources Satellite-1 (JERS-1) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data obtained from 1996 to 1998 to examine flow velocity within Shirase Glacier, Antarctica. From the grounding line to the downstream region of the glacier, the obtained ice-flow velocity was systematically higher on the western streamline than the eastern. The differences between the two streamlines were 0.31 km/a in 1996 and 0.37 km/a in 1998, significantly larger than the error estimate of 0.03 km/a. The direction of ice flow was about 312° at the grounding line and changed to 327° at 10 km, 346° at 20 km and 2° at 30 km downstream from the grounding line. The total accumulated deflection is 50° to the east. Under the assumption of the conservation of ice mass across the glacier, the observed eastward change in flow direction can be explained by an asymmetric deepening of bedrock topography, that is, across the 8 km width of the glacier, the eastern side is 50 m (10%) deeper than the western side. This eastward turning of flow direction appears to be accelerated by tributary inlets, that flow to the north and northeast at 60–75% of the velocity of inlets on the western streamline.     

Seepage simulation using pipe network flow model in a discrete element system

The pipe network flow model can simulate the seepage process with DEM conveniently because of its simple algorithm. However, whether it can recover the correct seepage process has not been verified. In this paper, the equation to update the fluid pressure is rebuilt according to the flow conservation. Through the steady seepage simulation, this algorithm is verified to be able to recover Darcy’s law, and the equation to calibrate the aperture according to macro permeability is derived. Furthermore, the modified algorithm is used to simulate the unsteady seepage process, and the results show good agreement with the analytical solutions.     

基于未确知信息的环状河网水质数学模型研究

以圣维南方程组、对流扩散方程以及未确知信息理论为基础,建立了环状河网一维水动力与未确知水质数学模型。采用Preissman四点隐格式法对圣维南方程组进行离散和采用显式差分对对流扩散方程进行离散,对河网水动力与水质分别进行了合理的编码,并考虑了泵闸等控制工程、降雨径流的影响,采用河网的三级解法编制河网非恒定流的计算程序求解各断面的水位Z和流量Q,实现了水动力和水质两模块之间的数据连接,且对微分形式的水质模型运用未确知数学理论进行了含有两个未确知参数的水质计算,从而不仅能获得污染物浓度区间值,还能得到相应的可信度。实例研究表明,建立的河网水动力模型和未确知信息的水质模型是可靠的,可以用于河网水质治理工程的数值模拟研究和水环境评估。