Effects of climate change on the groundwater system in the Grote-Nete catchment,Belgium

The effects of climate change on the groundwater systems in the Grote-Nete catchment, Belgium, covering an area of 525 km², is modeled using wet (greenhouse), cold or NATCC (North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Change) and dry climate scenarios. Low, central and high estimates of temperature changes are adopted for wet scenarios. Seasonal and annual water balance components including groundwater recharge are simulated using the WetSpass model, while mean annual groundwater elevations and discharge are simulated with a steady-state MODFLOW groundwater model. WetSpass results for the wet scenarios show that wet winters and drier summers are expected relative to the present situation. MODFLOW results for wet high scenario show groundwater levels increase by as much as 79 cm, which could affect the distribution and species richness of meadows. Results obtained for cold scenarios depict drier winters and wetter summers relative to the present. The dry scenarios predict dry conditions for the whole year. There is no recharge during the summer, which is mainly attributed to high evapotranspiration rates by forests and low precipitation. Average annual groundwater levels drop by 0.5 m, with maximum of 3.1 m on the eastern part of the Campine Plateau. This could endanger aquatic ecosystem, shrubs, and crop production.     

新疆地区表土孢粉分布规律及其与植被关系研究

对中国新疆地区218个样点进行植被调查及表土孢粉分析的研究结果表明,新疆地区温带山地针叶林、高寒草甸及盐生草甸、温带草原、荒漠以及荒漠-沙漠过渡带均具有相对特殊的孢粉组合,新疆南北向样带的孢粉图式揭示出表土孢粉从北到南随地形、纬度和植被的改变而发生的空间变化。针叶林区表土孢粉浓度平均值为22 602粒/g、草原为3 834粒/g、荒漠为1 762粒/g、沙漠为0-10粒/g。但在同一植被类型中,特别是在草原和荒漠中,孢粉浓度与植被盖度之间并不呈现线性相关关系。根据大空间尺度样品的A/C(蒿Artemisia/藜Chenopodiaceae)值的中位数统计,草原为1.264、荒漠为0.565、沙漠为0.243。Ep/C(麻黄Ephedra/藜Chenopodiaceae)比值的中位数在荒漠为0.098、草原为0.063。     

Why is Shirase Glacier turning its flow direction eastward?

We applied an image correlation method to Japanese Earth Resources Satellite-1 (JERS-1) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data obtained from 1996 to 1998 to examine flow velocity within Shirase Glacier, Antarctica. From the grounding line to the downstream region of the glacier, the obtained ice-flow velocity was systematically higher on the western streamline than the eastern. The differences between the two streamlines were 0.31 km/a in 1996 and 0.37 km/a in 1998, significantly larger than the error estimate of 0.03 km/a. The direction of ice flow was about 312° at the grounding line and changed to 327° at 10 km, 346° at 20 km and 2° at 30 km downstream from the grounding line. The total accumulated deflection is 50° to the east. Under the assumption of the conservation of ice mass across the glacier, the observed eastward change in flow direction can be explained by an asymmetric deepening of bedrock topography, that is, across the 8 km width of the glacier, the eastern side is 50 m (10%) deeper than the western side. This eastward turning of flow direction appears to be accelerated by tributary inlets, that flow to the north and northeast at 60–75% of the velocity of inlets on the western streamline.     

Spatially discontinuous modern sedimentation in Georgian Bay, Huron Basin, Great Lakes

High-resolution seismic reflection profile data show that the modern sediment cover (over the last 150 years) in Georgian Bay is thin and spatially discontinuous. Sediments rich in ragweed pollen, largely derived from siltation linked to land clearing and European settlement, form a thin, discontinuous veneer on the lakebed. Much of the lakebed consists of exposed sediments deposited during the late glacial or early postglacial. Accumulation rates of modern sediments range from < 0 mm/year (net erosion) to ∼3.2 mm/year, often within a few hundred metres spatially. These rates are much lower than those reported for the main basin of Lake Huron and the other Great Lakes, and are attributed to the low sediment supply. Only a few small rivers flow into Georgian Bay, and most of the basin is surrounded by bedrock of Precambrian gneiss and granite to the east, and Silurian dolostone, limestone and shale to the west. Thick deposits of Pleistocene drift, found on the Georgian Bay shoreline only between Meaford and Port Severn, are the main sediment source for the entire basin at present. Holocene to modern sediments are even absent from some deep basins of Georgian Bay. These findings have implications for the ultimate fate of anthropogenic contaminants in Georgian Bay. While microfossil assemblages in the ragweed-rich sediments record increased eutrophication over the last 150 years, most pollutants generated in the Georgian Bay catchment are not accumulating on the lakebed and are probably exported from the Bay.     

Regional variability in relationships between climate and dengue/DHF in Indonesia

Since 1970, the worldwide distribution, frequency and intensity of epidemics of dengue and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) have increased dramatically. In Indonesia, as elsewhere, the geographic distribution and behaviour of the two main vectors – Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus – and the consequent transmission dynamics of the disease are strongly influenced by climate. Monthly incidence data were examined in relation to monthly data for temperature, rainfall, rainfall anomalies, humidity and the Southern Oscillation Index for 1992–2001. Focusing on eight provinces, significant Pearson correlations were observed between dengue/DHF incidence and at least one climate variable ( r  = ±0.2 to ±0.43; P  < 0.05). Multiple regression analyses showed that 12.9–24.5 per cent of variance in incidence was explained by two or three climate variables in each province ( P  < 0.1–0.01). Rainfall appears to be the principal climatic agent affecting the geographic distribution and temporal pattern of incidence while temperature appears to play a critical role in outbreak intensity. Wide regional and temporal variations in the strength and nature of the observed associations led to the identification of three groups of provinces where increases in dengue/DHF incidence were variously associated with increased rainfall, decreased rainfall and/or high susceptibility to climate variability. Although climatic factors play an important role in explaining the timing and intensity of dengue/DHF outbreaks, a wide range of other factors specific to local environments also appear to be involved – information that may assist in the prediction and mitigation of regional dengue/DHF outbreaks.     

Application of horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) Fourier spectral ratio for analysis of site effect on rock (NEHRP-class B) sites in Taiwan

The frequency-dependent amplification for rock (NEHRP-class B) sites was studied using earthquake ground-motion database collected in Taiwan during implementation of the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program. The database used includes several hundred records from earthquakes of M_L 4.0–7.3 occurred between 1993 and 2004. The characteristics of amplification were evaluated using the well-known technique of horizontal-to-vertical Fourier spectral ratio (H/V) of the S-wave phase [Lermo J, Chavez-Garcia FJ. Site effect evaluation using spectral ratios with only one station. Bull Seism Soc Am 1993;83:1574–94]. The study allows us to analyze peculiarities of rock sites amplification in Northern and Eastern Taiwan. It was suggested to divide the NEHRP-class B site amplification into four types based on frequency of maximum amplification and the shape of amplification function. The applicability of the technique was also checked for a few stiff and soft soil sites (NEHRP-classes D and E).     

海南三亚地区S4指数与C/N、ROTI的比较分析

本文通过利用海南三亚站（1834°N, 10962°E）GPS闪烁/TEC接收机2004年8月到2005年7月间观测数据，在对三亚地区闪烁初步统计分析的基础上，比较分析了观测数据中S₄（幅度闪烁指数）和C/N（载噪比），S₄和ROTI（TEC变化率标准差）的关系，同时对2004年11月7日的闪烁事件进行了具体的分析. 通过比较分析得出：（1）三亚地区全年的闪烁强度具有明显的半年变化，在春秋季出现全年闪烁强度的最大值；（2）S₄与C/N具有很好的负相关性；（3）ROTI可以作为由小尺度不规则结构引起闪烁出现的指示剂.     

NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE MIXING OF UNSORTED SEDIMENT PARTICLES DISCHARGED INTO A CROSS-FLOW BY MULTIPHASE PARTICLE-IN-CELL （MP-PIC） METHOD

The mixing characteristics of dredged sediments of variable size discharged into cross-flow are studied by an Eulerian-Lagrangian method. A three-dimensional (3D) numerical model has been developed by using the modified k-ε parameterization for the turbulence in fluid phase/water and a Lagrangian method for the solid phase/sediments. In the model the wake turbulence induced by sediments has been included as additional source and sink terms in the k-ε model; and the trajectories of the sediments are tracked by the Lagrangian method in which the sediment drift velocities in cross-flow are computed by a multiphase particle-in-cell (MP-PIC) method and the diffusion process is approximated by a random walk model. The hydrodynamic behavior of dumped sediment cloud is governed by the total buoyancy on the cloud, the drag force on each particle and velocity of cross-flow. The cross-flow destroys more or less the double vortices occurred in stagnant ambience and dominates the longitudinal movement of sediment cloud. The computed results suggest satisfactory agreement by comparison with the experimental results of laboratory.     

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Model Forecast During a Satellite Launch to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in MM5

The identification of the model discrepancy and skill is crucial when a forecast is issued. The characterization of the model errors for different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) provides more confidence on the model outputs and qualifies which CPSs are to be used for better forecasts. Cases of good/bad skill scores can be isolated and clustered into weather systems to identify the atmospheric structures that cause difficulties to the forecasts. The objective of this work is to study the sensitivity of weather forecast, produced using the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) during the launch of an Indian satellite on 5th May, 2005, to the way in which convective processes are parameterized in the model. The real-time MM5 simulations were made for providing the weather conditions near the launch station Sriharikota (SHAR). A total of 10 simulations (each of 48 h) for the period 25th April to 04th May, 2005 over the Indian region and surrounding oceans were made using different CPSs. The 24 h and 48 h model predicted wind, temperature and moisture fields for different CPSs, namely the Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fritsch and Betts-Miller, are statistically evaluated by calculating parameters such as mean bias, root-mean-squares error (RMSE), and correlation coefficients by comparison with radiosonde observation. The performance of the different CPSs, in simulating the area of rainfall is evaluated by calculating bias scores (BSs) and equitable threat scores (ETSs). In order to compute BSs and ETSs the model predicted rainfall is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observed rainfall. It was observed that model simulated wind and temperature fields by all the CPSs are in reasonable agreement with that of radiosonde observation. The RMSE of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity do not show significant differences among the four CPSs. Temperature and relative humidity were overestimated by all the CPSs, while wind speed is underestimated, except in the upper levels. The model predicted moisture fields by all CPSs show substantial disagreement when compared with observation. Grell scheme outperforms the other CPSs in simulating wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, particularly in the upper levels, which implies that representing entrainment/detrainment in the cloud column may not necessarily be a beneficial assumption in tropical atmospheres. It is observed that MM5 overestimates the area of light precipitation, while the area of heavy precipitation is underestimated. The least predictive skill shown by Kuo for light and moderate precipitation asserts that this scheme is more suitable for larger grid scale (>30 km). In the predictive skill for the area of light precipitation the Betts-Miller scheme has a clear edge over the other CPSs. The evaluation of the MM5 model for different CPSs conducted during this study is only for a particular synoptic situation. More detailed studies however, are required to assess the forecast skill of the CPSs for different synoptic situations.     

统计预测、经验预测、物理预测——近期国际地震预测预报研究的启示

从"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"的角度讨论了世纪之交地震预测预报研究的国际进展。"统计预测"包括地震预测预报方法的统计检验、"统计地震学",以及统计物理在地震预测预报中的应用;"经验预测"包括搜索可能的前兆异常的尝试、建立将可能的前兆异常现象与地震孕育过程联系起来的简单模型、发现对地震预测预报研究具有重要意义的新现象,以及地球介质变化的动态监测试验;"物理预测"包括地震孕育和发生的物理模型、地震断层带性质的观测和实验研究,以及对震源的直接探测和钻探。讨论了"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"之间的关系,对"把经验预测或统计预测变成物理预测"的发展战略提出质疑。