Modelling of the retreat process of composite riverbank in the Jingjiang Reach using the improved BSTEM

Bank retreat in the Jingjiang Reach is closely related not only to the near‐bank intensity of fluvial erosion but also to the composition and mechanical properties of bank soils. Therefore, it is necessary to correctly simulate bank retreat to determine the characteristics of fluvial processes in the Jingjiang Reach. The current version of bank stability and toe erosion model (5.4) was improved to predict riverbank retreat, by inputting a dynamic water table, and calculating the approximation of the distribution of dynamic pore water pressure in the soil near the river bank face, and considering the depositional form of the failed blocks, which is assumedly based on a triangular distribution, with the slope approximately equalling the stable submerged bank slope and half of collapsed volume deposited in the bank‐toe region. The degrees of riverbank stability at Jing34 were calculated using the improved bank stability and toe erosion model. The results indicate the following trends: (a) the degrees of riverbank stability were high during the dry season and the rising stage, which led to minimal bank failure, and (b) the stability degrees were low during the flood season and the recession stage, with the events of bank collapse occurring frequently, which belonged to a stage of intensive bank erosion. Considering the effects of bank‐toe erosion, water table lag, and the depositional form of the collapsed bank soil, the bank‐retreat process was simulated at the right riverbank of Jing34. The model‐predicted results exhibit close agreement with the measured data, including the total bank‐retreat width and the collapsed bank profile. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the quantitative effects of toe erosion and water table lag on the degree of bank stability. The calculated results for toe erosion indicate that the amount of toe erosion was largest during the flood season, which was a primary reason for bank failure. The influence of water table lag on the degree of stability demonstrates that water table lag was an important cause of bank failure during the recession stage.     

冬季热带印度洋季节内振荡的物理结构

利用最新的卫星遥感资料、现场观测资料以及海-气通量再分析资料,采用延时相关分析和合成分析方法,分析了冬季热带印度洋季节内振荡的物理结构.结果表明,季节内振荡的结构与原有认识不同,大气深对流中心(短波辐射极小值)和纬向西风极大值(潜热通量极大值)同位相,这种结构有利于海表温度对季节内振荡强迫产生显著的响应,与观测到的热带印度洋海表温度的强季节内变化信号一致,也预示着海-气耦合对于热带印度洋季节内振荡具有重要影响.     

1964-2015年气候因子对秦岭地区植物物候的综合影响效应

以1964-2015年物候观测数据和逐日气象资料为基础,运用相关分析和PLS回归法,研究了秦岭地区植物物候变化与气候变化的响应关系。结果表明：① 1964-2015年,秦岭地区物候始末期的气候均呈干暖化趋势,且始期的暖化趋势较末期显著,物候突变后（1985年之后）尤为显著。② 就单一因素而言,物候始末期对气温、降水、日照等气候因子的响应程度存在差异,突变前（1985年之前）,除物候始期的日均温外,其他气候因子对物候的影响均不显著,但突变后影响显著,始期与末期的日均温每升高1 ℃,始期提前3.0 d,末期推迟12.0 d;始期的累积降水每减少1 mm始期提前1.3 d,末期的每增加1 mm末期推迟1.0 d;始期与末期的日均日照时数每增加1 h,始期提前4.3 d,末期推迟18.3 d。③ 气候因子对物候始末期的影响存在滞后效应,物候始期,气温影响的滞后时效约1~2个月,降水的滞后时效约1~3个月,而日照几乎无滞后效应;物候末期,气温的滞后时效约1~3个月,降水几乎无滞后效应,而日照影响的滞后时效约1~2个月。④ 物候始期与末期均受气温、日照、降水的综合影响,气温是影响物候变化最重要的因素,特别是同期日均温的升高对物候始期的提前及末期的推迟具有主导控制作用。     

兰州市气温对脑卒中发病的滞后效应研究

通过收集兰州市2010-2013年每日脑卒中发病资料,结合同一时间段的气象资料,利用分布滞后非线性模型分析气温与人群脑卒中发病的关联性,分析不同气温和不同滞后天数对脑卒中发病可能的影响。结果表明脑卒中发病与气象因素关系密切,气象因素与脑卒中病例数据的相关分析表明兰州市脑卒中每日发病人数与气温、气压和相对湿度均存在相关性,气温在不同滞后日与脑卒中的关联呈非线性,不同类型脑卒中与气温的关联强度存在差异。对于脑出血患者而言,低温在当天就表现出危害效应,随后发病风险不断增加,滞后2～3 d时达到最大,可持续至低温发生后的第30天。脑梗塞的发病过程与脑出血存在一定差异,高温和低温均会引起发病风险增大,并且气温效应在当天就能发生,在滞后3～5 d内最强。低温对女性或者19～64岁者的影响更大,而高温对≥65岁者的影响更大;低温对不同类型脑卒中发病均有影响,高温仅对缺血性脑卒中发病有影响。气温对不同年龄、性别人群的脑卒中发病影响存在差异,对不同类型的脑卒中发病影响也有所不同。气温是作为外因通过影响机体功能而致人发病的。     

嵌岩桩荷载传递特性研究

针对嵌岩桩荷载传递研究中存在的问题,根据桩体与围岩体接触面上的应力-应变关系以及剪滞模型,研究了嵌岩桩的荷载传递特性。推导了考虑桩、岩界面脱黏与完全黏结两种条件下嵌岩段侧阻力分布规律的计算公式。研究了桩、岩相对刚度、外荷载等级对荷载传递特性的影响,讨论了桩端荷载分担比例与嵌岩段所需埋设深度的关系等。研究成果对嵌岩桩设计具有指导意义。     

沿岸流不稳定运动传播特性的小波相干谱分析

沿岸流不稳定运动属于超低频运动,研究它的传播特性,有助于深入理解其对岸滩演变、污染物、鱼卵等输移、迁移的影响。本文基于小波相干谱对所选实验波况进行了研究,分析了规则波、随机波入射情况下沿岸流不稳定运动传播特性,并讨论了入射波高、周期、坡度等对其的影响。结果表明,不规则波更易诱导出沿岸流不稳定运动,且在不规则波情况下,不稳定运动在沿岸方向相距4 m的两个断面上产生的相位差都约为±30°,与波浪入射角相近;随着入射波高的增加,非线性随之增强,更易诱导出不稳定运动,生成的沿岸流不稳定运动周期范围将增大;入射波周期对沿岸流不稳定运动的传播特性影响较小;坡度越陡越易诱导出超低频的不稳定运动。     

Seasonal evolution of the englacial and subglacial drainage systems of a temperate glacier revealed by hydrological analysis

Englacial and subglacial drainage systems of temperate glaciers have a strong influence on glacier dynamics, glacier-induced floods, glacier-weathering processes, and runoff from glacierized drainage basins. Proglacial discharge is partly controlled by the geometry of the glacial drainage network and by the process of producing meltwater. The glacial-drainage system of some alpine glaciers has been characterized using a model based on proglacial discharge analysis. In this paper, we apply cross-correlation analysis to hourly hydro-climatic data collected from China＇s Hailuogou Glacier, a typical temperate glacier in Mt. Gongga, to study the seasonal status changes of the englacial and subglacial drainage systems by discharge-temperature （Q-T） time lag analy-sis. During early ablation season （April-May） of 2003, 2004 and 2005, the change of englacial and subglacial drainage system usually leads several outburst flood events, which are also substantiated by observing the leakage of supraglacial pond and cre-vasses pond water during field works in April, 2008. At the end of ablation season （October-December）, the glacial-drainage net-works become less hydro-efficient. Those events are evidenced by hourly hydro-process near the terminus of Hailuogou Glacier, and the analysis of Q-T time lags also can be a good indicator of those changes. However, more detailed observations or experi-ments, e.g. dye-tracing experiment and recording borehole water level variations, are necessary to describe the evolutionary status and processes of englacial and subglacial drainage systems evolution during ablation season.     

伏牛山地区森林植被动态变化对水热条件的响应

利用环境一号卫星不同时相多光谱数据,提取伏牛山地区不同森林植被类型。借助S-G滤波算法重构2000-2013年MODIS EVI时间序列影像,并结合气温和降水数据,运用线性回归、相关性分析和ANUSPLIN插值等方法分析伏牛山地区不同森林植被类型变动对水热条件的响应方式。结果表明：① 伏牛山地区植被覆盖较高,EVI平均值为0.48,14年来总体呈上升趋势,但不同森林植被类型变化存在明显差异,其中占比例最大的落叶阔叶林的上升趋势最为明显。② 14年来伏牛山地区气温呈升高趋势,气温距平升高速度约为0.27℃/10a,降水距平百分率呈波动增加趋势。③ 伏牛山地区不同森林植被类型EVI变化和气温、降水的相关性存在明显差异,其中常绿阔叶林EVI与气温的相关性最高,常绿落叶混交林与气温的相关性最弱;除常绿落叶混交林与降水主要呈弱正相关外,其余森林植被类型与降水主要呈弱负相关。④ 伏牛山地区森林植被对气温和降水的响应总体上滞后性不明显,仅在局部区域内常绿落叶混交林与气温和降水存在半个月滞后期。     

利用海温作山东半岛气温,降水预报的业务系统

通过分析太平洋海温与山东半岛气温和降水的相关性，找出了两者相关关系中的一些特点。用于制做月平均气温和月降水量的预报系统，在预报业务中取得了很好的预报效果和经济效益。