苏05井数字化水位雨荷效应的处理与改正

根据苏05井水位受降雨影响具有滞后“记忆”效应的特点,利用褶积滤波方法,对苏05井水位的雨荷效应进行处理和改正。处理结果表明,井水位与固体潮理论值的相关系数由处理前的0．24l上升为改正后的0．65l,达到未受降雨影响的水平,因此对于受降雨影响严重的井孔水位进行降雨量的改正是有效而又极其必要的。     

辛安泉系统岩溶地下水降水补给滞后分析研究

辛安泉域是山西第二大岩溶泉,是长治市生活主要供水水源,根据其地质和含水岩性特征,从其补径排规律上,分析了泉域接受降水补给的年内和年际特点.并建立其裸露区降水补给模型.得出降雨补给泉水滞后6a以上,最长可达10a,降水丰枯与泉水的不一致变化趋势.近年降水减少是泉水流量下降的主要原因,应合理开采,以保泉水常流不竭.     

Grassland coverage inter-annual variation and its coupling relation with hydrothermal factors in China during 1982-2010

GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies) NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) from 1982 to 2006 and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) NDVI from 2001 to 2010 were blended to extract the grass coverage and analyze its spatial pattern. The response of grass coverage to climatic variations at annual and monthly time scales was analyzed. Grass coverage distribution had increased from northwest to southeast across China. During 1982-2010, the mean nationwide grass coverage was 34% but exhibited apparent spatial heterogeneity, being the highest (61.4%) in slope grasslands and the lowest (17.1%) in desert grasslands. There was a slight increase of the grass coverage with a rate of 0.17% per year. Increase in slope grasslands coverage was as high as 0.27% per year, while in the plain grasslands and meadows the grass coverage increase was the lowest (being 0.11% per year and 0.1% per year, respectively). Across China, the grass coverage with extremely significant increase (P<0.01) and significant increase (P<0.05) accounted for 46.03% and 11% of the total grassland area, respectively, while those with extremely significant and significant decrease accounted for only 4.1% and 3.24%, respectively. At the annual time scale, there are no significant correlations between grass coverage and annual mean temperature and precipitation. However, the grass coverage was somewhat affected by temperature in alpine and sub-alpine grassland, alpine and sub-alpine meadow, slope grassland and meadow, while grass coverage in desert grassland and plain grassland was more affected by precipitation. At the monthly time-scale, there are significant correlations between grass coverage with both temperature and precipitation, indicating that the grass coverage is more affected by seasonal fluctuations of hydrothermal conditions. Additionally, there is one-month time lag-effect between grass coverage and climate factors for each grassland types.     

典型岩溶区土壤呼吸作用的昼夜变化特征及其影响因素

为揭示桂林毛村岩溶地区夏季表层土壤呼吸作用昼夜演变规律。本次研究选用静态暗箱/气相色谱法,监测了无降水影响下毛村岩溶区域的表层土壤呼吸通量的昼夜变化规律。同时野外监测表层土壤的温度、大气温度、大气压强等环境参数,以综合分析影响土壤呼吸作用昼夜变化的关键环境因子。结果表明:受到大气温度变化的影响,研究区域土壤表层温度呈现单峰型的昼夜变化规律,表层土壤呼吸作用也存在明显的昼夜变化特征。土壤呼吸最大值出现在12:40至14:40,最小值出现在4:40-6:40。土壤呼吸作用强度和变幅均是白天大于夜间。大气温度与土壤呼吸作用呈显著正相关关系（P<0.01）,说明在土壤含水量未超过阀值时,大气温度是影响土壤呼吸作用昼夜变化的关键环境因子。本次研究明确了土壤呼吸作用在昼夜变化上的变异性,对精确估算整个生态系统的碳收支有重要意义。      

台风暴雨型滑坡滞后效应分析

我国东南沿海地区台风登陆频繁,伴生暴雨诱发的台风型滑坡造成了严重的经济损失和人员伤亡。已有研究在单峰型、多峰型台风暴雨的斜坡水文响应过程及稳定性分析方面取得了一定成果,但缺乏对台风暴雨型滑坡滞后效应的研究和机理分析。为此,以台风“利奇马”在浙江青田县的登陆为例,基于对台风型滑坡发生数量与降雨量的统计,构建16组不同结构组合的斜坡模型,模拟在台风登陆过程中不同降雨工况条件下斜坡的渗流—稳定性变化。结果表明,台风“利奇马”离陆后青田县内仍有26.4%的滑坡发生,存在一定滞后;不同结构组合斜坡稳定性在离陆后最低,相较于台风登陆前稳定性系数降低了13.82%;在台风登陆暴雨作用下,青田县斜坡稳定性结构影响参数中坡度最为敏感;讨论认为在台风不同登陆阶段的降雨会导致边坡的入渗特征差异,从而形成滞后效应。研究结论对于该区域的台风型滑坡早期识别具有一定指导意义。     

基于快速滚动更新的无缝隙定量降水预报模型

精细化定量降水网格预报是天气预报业务的重点和难点,基于西南区域智能数值网格模式预报系统(Southwest China WRF-based Intelligent Numeric Grid forecast System,SWC-WINGS)1 km× 1 km分辨率的小时降水预报,利用时间滞后和概率匹配方法开展融合订正试验,再利用中国气象局多源融合降水系统(CMA Multi-source Precipitation Analysis System,CMPAS)三源融合降水实况格点数据,对2022年7—8月四川地区的小时降水预报融合订正结果进行检验,并在四川盆地西部一次短时强降水天气过程中进行应用,结果表明：(1) 时间滞后集合降水预报相较于模式降水预报,存在小量级预报过度,大量级预报过于保守的问题;(2) 时间滞后结合概率匹配的降水预报融合订正方法有效提升了各量级降水预报的TS评分,尤其1~2 h预报时效提升显著,小时雨量超过0.1 mm、5 mm、10 mm和20 mm量级的TS评分平均提升率分别为7.2%、17.2%、28.3%和36.3%;(3) 一次短时强降水天气过程的应用结果表明,时间滞后结合概率匹配的融合订正方法对模式小时降水预报有较好的改进效果,尤其对大量级降水预报有较强的订正能力。

     

The dynamic response of forest vegetation to hydrothermal conditions in the Funiu Mountains of western Henan Province

This paper uses HJ-1 satellite multi-spectral and multi-temporal data to extract forest vegetation information in the Funiu Mountain region. The S-G filtering algorithm was employed to reconstruct the MODIS EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) time-series data for the period of 2000–2013, and these data were correlated with air temperature and precipitation data to explore the responses of forest vegetation to hydrothermal conditions. The results showed that: (1) the Funiu Mountain region has relatively high and increasing forest coverage with an average EVI of 0.48 over the study period, and the EVI first shows a decreasing trend with increased elevation below 200 m, then an increasing trend from 200–1700 m, and finally a decreasing trend above 1700 m. However, obvious differences could be identified in the responses of different forest vegetation types to climate change. Broad-leaf deciduous forest, being the dominant forest type in the region, had the most significant EVI increase. (2) Temperature in the region showed an increasing trend over the 14 years of the study with an anomaly increasing rate of 0.27°C/10a; a fluctuating yet increasing trend could be identified for the precipitation anomaly percentage. (3) Among all vegetation types, the evergreen broad-leaf forest has the closest EVI-temperature correlation, whereas the mixed evergreen and deciduous forest has the weakest. Almost all forest types showed a weak negative EVI-precipitation correlation, except the mixed evergreen and deciduous forest with a weak positive correlation. (4) There is a slight delay in forest vegetation responses to air temperature and precipitation, with half a month only for limited areas of the mixed evergreen and deciduous forest.     

民勤春小麦NDVI与产量的关系及其对气候变暖的响应

应用1982—2003年的GIMMS NDVI时间序列遥感数据集和民勤站气象资料以及1985—2000年民勤作物物候期观测和产量资料,借助于GIS技术,在识别春小麦种植区的基础上,分析了其生长季平均NDVI与产量的相关关系,并采用时滞互相关法对月际尺度的平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、降水和日照时数与春小麦NDVI的相互关系进行研究,建立了春小麦生长季平均NDVI对气候因子的响应关系模型。结果显示,民勤县春小麦生长季平均NDVI与单产产量极度相关;月际尺度上,春小麦NDVI与平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和降水相互作用同步,而滞后于日照时数1个月,且气温和降水对春小麦NDVI影响时效为1个月,日照时数为2个月;近年来,日照时数延长和降水增多有利于春小麦NDVI的增加及产量的提高。     

江苏交通可达性与区域经济发展水平关系测度——基于空间计量视角

交通基础设施建设与区域经济发展关系研究是交通地理学关注的焦点,但现有研究对于两者的内在关系仍存较多争议。鉴于此,将可达性不同概念纳入空间计量模型,构建包含可达性与经济变化的二阶空间滞后模型,试图从空间计量视角探讨可达性变动与区域经济发展的联系。研究显示：交通建设扩大了长江南北可达性的绝对差距,增强了长三角江苏部分城镇间的凝聚力,使苏中地区顺利融入长三角;在江苏“十一五”期间,交通建设并没有促进经济发达城镇带动周边城镇发展,但是交通建设改善了城镇发展环境,对经济持续发展有积极的作用;在加强交通基础设施建设中,应注意交通建设对经济发展的结构性效益。     

海潮及其影响下海岸带地下水位时间序列的周期性和滞后性

运用谱分析原理，对广西北海市海潮及受海潮影响的滨海含水层地下水位时间序列进行分析，求出海潮和观测孔水位变化的周期及地下水位滞后于海潮的时间，分析水位滞后时间与离海岸的垂直距离之间的关系。结果表明，北海市海潮和海岸带地下水位有约344．82h（14．37d）的长周期变化和约24．7h、12．5h的短周期波动，距海岸2175、2350、2375m的3个观测孔地下水位对海潮的滞后时间分别为5．5、6．25和7h，滞后时间随离海岸的距离增大大体上呈线性增加。