再论纬向正常密度假说与内波假说的比较

本文对“纬向正常密度假说”和“内波假说”再次进行了讨论,进一步比较了二者的联系和区别.根据岩石圈板块概念和地幔对流假说的基本观点、以及“纬向正常密度假说”和“板块运动重力机制”的基本观点,提出了“软流圈板块”概念.     

Analysis on the noises from continuously monitoring GPS sites

In this paper,we analyze the time series of site coordinates of 27 continuously monitoring GPS sites covered bythe Crustal Movement Observation Network of China over the whole country.The data are obtained in the periodfrom the beginning of the observation to the November of 2005.On the basis of data processing,we analyze thepower spectrum density of coordinate component noise at each site and calculate the spectral indexes manifestingthe noise property of each component.The spectral indexes indicate that for most sites,the noise of time series ofeach coordinate component can be addressed by the model of white noise flicker noise;and for a small amountof sites,it can be described by the model of white noise flicker noise random walk noise.We also quantita-tively estimate each noise component in the model by using the criterion of maximum likelihood estimation.Theresult shows that the white noise in the time series of GPS site coordinates does not constitute the main part ofnoise.Therefore,the error estimation of site movement parameters is usually too small,or too optimistic if weconsider the white noise only.Correspondingly,if this factor is not fully considered in explaining these movementparameters,it might mislead the readers.     

地震活动性总体参量Rt在东南沿海地震带西段地震预测中的应用

分析了1974年以来东南沿海地震带西段发生的MS≥4.9级地震前地震活动性总体状态参量Rt的变化特点,同时对Rt值在东南沿海地震带西段的地震预测效能进行了检验评估。结果表明,当Rt>0.82时,表明东南沿海地震带西段地震活动状态比较正常,发生4.9级以上地震的概率较低;反之,当Rt≤0.82时,则表明东南沿海地震带西段地震活动比较活跃,发生4.9级以上地震的概率较大。     

Joint probability density function of the stochastic responses of nonlinear structures

The joint probability density fimction （PDF） of different structural responses is a very important topic in the stochastic response analysis of nonlinear structures. In this paper, the probability density evolution method, which is successfully developed to capture the instantaneous PDF of an arbitrary single response of interest, is extended to evaluate the joint PDF of any two responses. A two-dimensional partial differential equation in terms of the joint PDF is established. The strategy of selecting representative points via the number theoretical method and sieved by a hyper-ellipsoid is outlined. A two-dimensional difference scheme is developed. The free vibration of an SDOF system is examined to verify the proposed method, and a flame structure exhibiting hysteresis subjected to stochastic ground motion is investigated. It is pointed out that the correlation of different responses results from the fact that randomness of different responses comes from the same set of basic random parameters involved. In other words, the essence of the probabilistic correlation is a physical correlation.     

北京延庆钠层上边界的平均特性研究

本文对北京延庆(116.0°E,40.5°N)钠荧光激光雷达2018年11月—2019年12月夜间的数据以1 h和1 km的时空分辨率进行了分析.获得了当地钠层上边界可达到的高度范围、其相应的季节变化、夜间演化等：延庆顶部钠层可达到110 km、120 km和130 km的概率分别为99.94%、84.46%和40.34%,由此得出,顶部钠层在大多数情况下可以达到120 km,突破了顶部钠层在105 km(或者110 km)的传统观点;上边界高度范围的季节变化规律为5—6月份最高,2—3月份最低;后半夜顶部钠层密度会有所增加.我们比较了偶发钠层、温度和流星注入与上边界高度范围的相关性,推测出偶发钠层对钠层上边界拓展有很大贡献,流星注入次之,温度影响最低.后半夜流星注入量增多跟此时顶部钠层密度增加有一定的相关性.对顶部钠层能够提高到120 km的这项研究,可以为拓展风温的探测高度提供理论依据.

     

淮南深地重力观测的环境噪声评估与慢地震探测潜力

深地实验室的低噪声特性为高精度连续重力观测提供了理想的外部条件.为了揭示深地观测环境对重力观测精度的提升效果,本研究利用CG-5型和CG-6型各两台重力仪,在淮南煤矿的地下和地表同时开展重力观测.为减小仪器性能差异对结果的影响,先在淮北重力站进行同址观测.研究结果表明,相比于地表观测,地下观测可以减少1/3至1/2的线性漂移和1/3左右的非线性漂移,提取的潮汐因子精度也更高.地下非线性漂移的功率谱密度比地表低,二者差异在半日波频段最大可达15 dB.相比于地表和山洞,深地观测在次地震频段有明显的低噪声优势.地震位错理论计算结果表明,冲绳海沟7级左右的地震可在淮南深地试验场产生大约0.003 μGal的重力变化,超过0.001 μGal的超导重力静态观测精度.因此有望利用淮南深地实验室,在次地震频段的低噪声优势环境下开展超导连续重力观测,捕捉冲绳海沟可能存在的7级以上慢地震事件.

     

A new inverse method and application to ocean data

A new method is proposed to inverse normalization data of hidden variables in a dynamical system by embedding a time series in multidimensional spaces and applying a normalization analysis to the conditional probability density of points in the reconstructed phase spaces. The method is robust in the application to Lorenz system and 4-dimensional R?ssler system by testing quantitatively and qualitatively the correlation coefficient between inverse data and original data in time domain and in frequency domain, respectively. By applying the method to analyzing the South China Sea data, the normalization data of wind speed is extracted from the sea surface temperature time series.     

Low frequency waves in plasmas with spatially varying electron temperature

Low frequency electrostatic waves are studied in magnetized plasmas with an electron temperature which varies with position in a direction perpendicular to the magnetic field. For wave frequencies below the ion cyclotron frequency, the waves need not follow any definite dispersion relation. Instead a band of phase velocities is allowed, with a range of variation depending on the maximum and minimum values of the electron temperature. Simple model equations are obtained for the general case which can be solved to give the spatial variation of a harmonically time varying potential. A simple analytical model for the phenomenon is presented and the results are supported by numerical simulations carried out in a 2.5-dimensional particle-in-cell numerical simulation. We find that when the electron temperature is striated along B₀ and low frequency waves (_ci) are excited in this environment, then the intensity of these low frequency waves will be striated in a manner following the electron temperature striations. High frequency ion acoustic waves (_ci) will on the other hand have a spatially more uniform intensity distribution.     

Earth’s density flattening and hypothesis of latitudinal normal density

In this paper, the definition of latitudinal density and density flattening of the level ellipsoid is given, and integral formulas of latitudinal density for pole gravity and equator gravity are derived. According to the pole gravity condition and equator gravity condition for the level ellipsoid, latitudinal density distribution function of the level ellipsoid is obtained. It is proved mathematically that latitudinal density of the earth’s equator is larger than that of the pole, the earth’s density flattening calculated preliminarily is 1/322, and hypothesis of the earth’s latitudinal normal density is further proposed, so that theoretical preparation for studying the forming cause of the earth gravity in problems such as continent drift, mantle convection, and submarine extension is made well.     

Implications of model uncertainty for the mapping of hillslope‐scale soil erosion predictions

An integrated modelling approach (MIRSED) which utilizes the process‐based soil erosion model WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) is presented for the assessment of hillslope‐scale soil erosion at five sites throughout England and Wales. The methodology draws upon previous uncertainty analysis of the WEPP hillslope soil erosion model by the authors to qualify model results within an uncertainty framework. A method for incorporating model uncertainty from a range of sources is discussed as a first step towards using and learning from results produced through the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) technique. Results are presented and compared to available observed data, which illustrate that levels of uncertainty are significant and must be taken into account if a meaningful understanding of output from models such as WEPP is to be achieved. Furthermore, the collection of quality, observed data is underlined for two reasons: as an essential tool in the development of soil erosion modelling and also to allow further constraint of model uncertainty. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.