Saprolite Remnants as Indicators of Pre-Glacial Landform Genesis in Southeast Sweden

Twenty‐six sites with remnants of gravelly saprolites (grus) have been located in southeast Sweden. Joint block hills (castle kopjes) and steep rock walls with weathered joints as well as rounded boulders are documented to have an origin in deep weathering and subsequent stripping of saprolites. The saprolite remnants and landforms result from the fragmentation of the re‐exposed sub‐Cambrian peneplain along fracture systems. Only shallow saprolites occur on the elevated intact parts of the sub‐Cambrian peneplain, while saprolites up to 20 m thick are encountered in areas where the sub‐Cambrian peneplain is fractured and dissected. Neogene uplift with reactivation of the weathering system is thought to be the main cause of saprolite formation. Deep weathering is thus judged to have been the major agent of landform formation in the study area, while glacial and glaciofluvial erosion has contributed mainly by stripping saprolites, detaching corestones, and plucking joint blocks along weathered joints.     

The 17 March 2005 Kuzulu landslide (Sivas, Turkey) and landslide-susceptibility map of its near vicinity

Landslides are common natural hazards in the seismically active North Anatolian Fault Zone of Turkey. Although seismic activity, heavy rainfall, channel incisions, and anthropogenic effects are commonly the main triggers of landslides, on March 17, 2005, a catastrophic large landslide in Sivas, northeastern of Turkey, the Kuzulu landslide, was triggered by snowmelt without any other precursor. The initial failure of the Kuzulu landslide was rotational. Following the rotational failure, the earth material in the zone of accumulation exhibited an extremely rapid flow caused by steep gradient and high water content. The Agnus Creek valley, where Kuzulu village is located, was filled by the earth-flow material and a landslide dam was formed on the upper part of Agnus Creek. The distance from the toe of the rotational failure down to the toe of the earth flow measured more than 1800 m, with about 12.5 million m³ of displaced earth material. The velocity of the Kuzulu landslide was extremely fast, approximately 6 m/s. The main purposes of this study are to describe the mechanism and the factors conditioning the Kuzulu landslide, to present its environmental impacts, and to produce landslide-susceptibility maps of the Kuzulu landslide area and its near vicinity. For this purpose, a detailed landslide inventory map was prepared and geology, slope, aspect, elevation, topographic-wetness index and stream-power index were considered as conditioning factors. During the susceptibility analyses, the conditional probability approach was used and a landslide-susceptibility map was produced. The landslide-susceptibility map will help decision makers in site selection and the site-planning process. The map may also be accepted as a basis for landslide risk-management studies to be applied in the study area.     

Discrete element method modeling of inherently anisotropic rocks under uniaxial compression loading

A new numerical approach is proposed in this study to model the mechanical behaviors of inherently anisotropic rocks in which the rock matrix is represented as bonded particle model, and the intrinsic anisotropy is imposed by replacing any parallel bonds dipping within a certain angle range with smooth‐joint contacts. A series of numerical models with β = 0°, 15°, 30°, 45°, 60°, 75°, and 90° are constructed and tested (β is defined as the angle between the normal of weak layers and the maximum principal stress direction). The effect of smooth‐joint parameters on the uniaxial compression strength and Young's modulus is investigated systematically. The simulation results reveal that the normal strength of smooth‐joint mainly affects the behaviors at high anisotropy angles (β > 45°), while the shear strength plays an important role at medium anisotropy angles (30°–75°). The normal stiffness controls the mechanical behaviors at low anisotropy angles. The angle range of parallel bonds being replaced plays an important role on defining the degree of anisotropy. Step‐by‐step procedures for the calibration of micro parameters are recommended. The numerical model is calibrated to reproduce the behaviors of different anisotropic rocks. Detailed analyses are conducted to investigate the brittle failure process by looking at stress‐strain behaviors, increment of micro cracks, initiation and propagation of fractures. Most of these responses agree well with previous experimental findings and can provide new insights into the micro mechanisms related to the anisotropic deformation and failure behaviors. The numerical approach is then applied to simulate the stress‐induced borehole breakouts in anisotropic rock formations at reduced scale. The effect of rock anisotropy and stress anisotropy can be captured. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Constitutive and numerical framework for modeling joints and faults in rock

A three‐dimensional constitutive model for joints is described that incorporates nonlinear elasticity based on volumetric elastic strain, and plasticity for both compaction and shear with emphasis on compaction. The formulation is general in the sense that alternative specific functional forms and evolution equations can be easily incorporated. A corresponding numerical structure based on finite elements is provided so that a joint width can vary from a fraction of an element size to a width that occupies several elements. The latter case is particularly appropriate for modeling a fault, which is considered simply to be a joint with large width. For small joint widths, the requisite equilibrium and kinematic requirements within an element are satisfied numerically. The result is that if the constitutive equation for either the joint or the rock is changed, the numerical framework remains unchanged. A unique aspect of the general formulation is the capability to handle either pre‐existing gaps or the formation of gaps. Representative stress–strain plots are given to illustrate both the features of the model and the effects of changes in values of material parameters. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new standardized Palmer drought index for hydro‐meteorological use

Accepting the concept of standardization introduced by the standardized precipitation index, similar methodologies have been developed to construct some other standardized drought indices such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this study, the authors provided deep insight into the SPEI and recognized potential deficiencies/limitations in relating to the climatic water balance it used. By coupling another well‐known Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), we proposed a new standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) through a moisture departure probabilistic approach, which allows multi‐scalar calculation for accurate temporal and spatial comparison of the hydro‐meteorological conditions of different locations. Using datasets of monthly precipitation, temperature and soil available water capacity, the moisture deficit/surplus was calculated at multiple temporal scales, and a couple of techniques were adopted to adjust corresponding time series to a generalized extreme value distribution out of several candidates. Results of the historical records (1900–2012) for diverse climates by multiple indices showed that the SPDI was highly consistent and correlated with the SPEI and self‐calibrated PDSI at most analysed time scales. Furthermore, a simple experiment of hypothetical temperature and/or precipitation change scenarios also verified the effectiveness of this newly derived SPDI in response to climate change impacts. Being more robust and preferable in spatial consistency and comparability as well as combining the simplicity of calculation with sufficient accounting of the physical nature of water supply and demand relating to droughts, the SPDI is promising to serve as a competent reference and an alternative for drought assessment and monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

年最大值抽样估算的暴雨频率设计值的低估问题探讨

由年最大值抽样（AMS）和年超大值抽样（AES）的基本理论及重现期（RP）的定义可知,AMS并不符合以“事件”为基础的重现期的定义.以美国西南半干旱区1438个雨量站和太湖流域96个雨量站的降雨资料为例,通过经验频率与超过概率的比较,发现AMS估算的暴雨频率设计值偏小,尤其是对常遇频率降雨设计值的影响更加显著.美国的降雨量资料站点多、系列长,实际资料验证与理论分析一致.通过对太湖流域AMS资料的分布形态进行分析的结果表明：太湖流域的站点不多,资料长度不够,且大部分站点在雨量大值区数据稀少,使得频率直方图不连续,是造成我国太湖流域的资料验证效果不理想的可能原因.     

基于光谱特征的月球岩性分类方法研究——以Apollo 16登月区域为例

利用NASA行星数据系统提供Apollo计划登月点采样线路影像数据,通过与嫦娥二号CCD数据、印度M~3数据空间校正获得采样路线坐标。开展嫦娥二号CCD数据与印度M~3数据MAP(后验概率)融合并选择Apollo 15、Apollo 16-62231的LSCC测得的标准岩石双向反射率光谱与M~3、嫦娥二号进行交叉定标。本文采用月球岩石光谱谱型全特征分析方法,选取涵盖Apollo计划登月获取的36个基站主要岩性87种、285件岩石样品,利用校正后的M~3数据分析月球典型岩石各阶吸收反射特征,建立月球典型岩石标准遥感影像光谱库,此后应用Apollo 623个岩石样品进行对比得到很好结果,同时完成Apollo 16登月点周围领域岩性分布图,并讨论了研究区的岩石成因,Apollo 16区域形成于高地大撞击,在早期的研究中已经被用于划分月球年代,本文方法对于月球岩石类别研究与理解月球的岩浆演化具有重要的研究价值。     

水库群水沙调控的单-多目标调度模型及其应用

为缓解内蒙古河段"二级悬河"形势,以黄河上游沙漠宽谷河段为研究对象,以龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库为调控主体,开展黄河上游水沙调控研究。建立了输沙量、发电量最大的单目标模型以及多目标模型;分别采用自迭代模拟算法、逐次逼近动态规划算法(DPSA)和改进的非支配排序遗传优化算法(NSGA-Ⅱ)求解模型;设置了初始、常规、优化和联合优化4种方案。通过实例计算,联合优化调度方案的区间总冲刷量达到了0.38亿t,梯级发电量148.22亿kW·h。该方案以较小的电量损失换来了输沙量的大幅度增加,水沙调控效果显著,推荐为最优方案。研究成果量化了水沙调控效果和各目标间的转化规律,为开展黄河上游水沙调控提供了决策依据,具有重要的应用价值和实际指导意义。     

基于峰值因子最大化的鬼波压制方法

针对传统拖缆采集得到的海上地震资料受鬼波影响而导致频带宽度变窄,笔者提出一种去鬼波方法,可以压制鬼波效应,拓宽频带。首先在频率-空间域推导出镜像数据生成公式,并基于峰值因子最大化的参数搜索方法来估计最优的鬼波延迟时间,将最优的鬼波延迟时代入镜像记录生成公式,获得最优的镜像记录,利用联合反褶积算法得到最优的去鬼波结果。将本文中的方法应用于模拟的变深度采集数据和海上实测的变深度采集数据,证实该方法可以有效地压制鬼波,消除频谱中的陷波点,得到宽频数据。     

Stability and capsizing analysis of nonlinear ship rolling in wind and stochastic beam seas

Considering the actual seaway condition, stability and capsizing of nonlinear ship rolling system in stochastic beam seas is of significant importance for voyage safety. Safe zone are defined in the phase space plan of the unperturbed Hamilton system to qualitatively distinguish ship motions as capsize and noncapsize. Capsize events are defined by solutions passing out of the safe zone. The probability of such an occurrence is studied by virtue of the random Melnikov function and the concept of phase space flux. In this paper, besides conventional wave excitation, the effect of wind load is also taken into account. The introduction of wind load will lead to asymmetry, in other words, it transforms the symmetric heteroclinic orbits into asymmetric homoclinic orbits. For asymmetric dynamical system, the orbital analytic solutions and its power spectrum are not readily available, and the technique of discrete time Fourier transformation (DTFT) is used. In the end, as verification of theoretical critical significant wave height, capsizing probability contour diagram is generated by means of numerical simulation. The contour diagram shows that these analytical methods provide reliable and predictive results about the likelihood of a vessel capsizing in a given seaway condition.