Application of Dangerous Probability Function in Risk Estimation of Surface Rupture Earthquake：Taking the Lingwu Fault in Ningxi1 Region as on Example

Based on the fitting on paleoearthquake data of intra-plate regions in the northern part of Chi-na and giving a statistical model of time interdependence,the potential damage earthquakes in a definite future period and characteristics of present shocks along the Lingwu fault have been analyzed by using dangerous probability function and some new data concerned.We have in-ferred that the fault has entered a period that earthquakes will probably occur.There exists a potential danger that a strong earthquake with Ms7.0-7.5 will occur in 10-100a.     

河流水质风险评价的灰色-随机风险率方法

提出了量化影响河流水质的随机不确定性与灰色不确定性的水质超标灰色－随机风险率概念，建立了水质超标灰色－随机风险率评价模型。在水质单项参数评价模型中，将河流污染物浓度变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布，将污染物浓度超过水质类别标准值的风险率处理成灰色概率，即水质超标灰色－随机风险率。在水质综合评价模型中，河流水环境系统被考虑为担任某一使用可能的可靠性系统，而任意一种水质参数超标意味着河流水体使用功能不能得到应有的保证，也即表明水体综合评价超标，最后借鉴系统可靠性分析的理论和方法计算水质综合超标率。该方法应用于黄河花园口断面重金属污染风险评价。     

福建省海岸基岩节理的分形性质及其与宏观断裂系的关系

该文以福建省福州市海岸基岩为例，通过野外实地勘测与室内分析相结合的研究方法，探讨了海岸基岩节理的分形性质及其与福建省宏观断裂系的相互关系。得到的基本结论为：第一，研究区节理与宏观断裂系的分形性质是客观存在的；第二，研究区节理与宏观断裂系在方向上存在着一定的响应关系；第三，研究区10^-2～10^-1m尺度的节理与福建省10^3～10^4m尺寸的断裂系存在一定的相似性。     

巴东长江公路大桥桥位边坡稳定可靠性研究

以巴东长江公路大桥桥位边坡为例，在前人稳定性评价的基础上，建立了基于剩余推力法和Sarma法的边坡稳定可靠性分析模型，分析表明边坡系统可靠性指标(β，Pf)能更准确地表达边坡稳定性、安全性和工程风险水平。     

弹性地基接缝板模量反演和地基脱空判定

用有限单元法建立了可考虑接缝和地基脱空的弹性地基板位移计算模型。并根据系统识别原理，建立了接缝地基板弹性模量的反演分析方法。最终提出了利用FWD实测板中弯沉盆数据反演面板与地基弹性模量、根据板角(板边)弯沉值判定地基脱空面积的迭代方法。     

基于自然水系网信息的元素运移分析

地面上的矿物或污染物元素主要是随水系而运移的。因此，利用自然水系网信息来定量分析元素沿水系的迁移、分散，对于地质找矿和环境保护都具有重要意义。在研究应用主概率权模拟模型产生自然水系网的基础上，提出了元素在水系网中运移的计算方法，结合所模拟出的水系网，具体分析了元素在其中的迁移、扩散情况，给出了正问题和反问题的计算结果。结果表明，正、反问题的求解具有一致性，方法是有效、可行的。     

利用GPS位移和主应力方向观测资料进行川滇地区边界力的联合反演研究

在简要介绍了川滇地区的构造格局和构造运动特征的基础上，讨论了不同观测数据同时用于反演的合理性和物理意义，利用1998～2000年观测的9个测点位移数据和1986年以前所测的10个主应力方向数据，将边界力和相对权比λ作为待反演参数，并考虑了主要活动断裂运动特性，进行了弹性有限元数值反演计算。计算结果表明，现今川滇地区的构造活动主要力源仍来源于印度板块与欧亚大陆的碰撞，菲律宾海板块的挤压作用也不可忽略，这一结论说明了该地区现今构造运动的继承性活动特征。     

Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using an integrated GIS Monte Carlo simulation approach

Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using a combined Geographic Information System (GIS), infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed and applied in the landslide-prone area of Sasebo city, southern Japan. A digital elevation model (DEM) for the study area has been created at a scale of 1/2500. Calculated results of slope angle and slope aspect derived from the DEM are discussed. Through the spatial interpolation of the identified stream network, the thickness distribution of the colluvium above Tertiary strata is determined with precision. Finally, by integrating an infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation with GIS, and applying spatial processing, a slope failure probability distribution map is obtained for the case of both low and high water levels.     

Reliability based risk index for the design of reinforced earth structures

The design methods currently used for earth reinforcement are mostly based on deterministic properties of both the soil and the construction materials used. Nowadays, however, the general trend is designing at a specific degree of reliability. This is even more true where the raw data such as soil properties exhibit significant variation. Deterministic solutions, in this case, may not suffice. Therefore, this paper will attempt to use probabilistic formulations thereby modifying the existing design procedure of reinforced earth retaining walls to account for uncertainties and variabilities. Through a first order Taylor's series expansion about the mean, the mean and variance of the strip reinforcing components, namely width and length, are derived in terms of the variations in the soil properties. Design charts that enable estimation of both mean and variance are developed to avoid extensive partial differentiation involved in the computations. Using appropriate probability distributions along with the mean and variance, the final design outputs are determined for a selected failure probability by introducing what is refered to as 'risk index'. The results indicate that the risk index increases with an increase in the coefficient of variations and a decrease in failure probability. Furthermore, it is shown that in some cases, depending on the variabilities of the soil properties, the classical design technique produced a relatively high failure probability. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

小湾电站高边坡系统锚固与排水的优化设计方法

据小湾电站地下厂房进水口开挖高边坡的岩体结构与工程地质特征,采用基于结构面网络模拟的随机楔体稳定分析方法对边坡的稳定性进行了三维分析。进一步运用风险分析理论对边坡系统锚杆与预应力锚索的布置进行了优化设计,最后运用结构面网络模拟理论对排水方案进行了优化设计。