Fuzzy Optimization Neural Network Approach for Ice Forecast in the Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River/Approche d'Optimisation Floue de Réseau de Neurones pour la Prévision de la Glace Dans le Tronçon de Mongolie Intérieure du Fleuve Jaune

Abstract

In ice forecasting, a key problem is the forecast of freeze-up and break-up dates. Ice-water mechanics and the principle of heat-exchange were mainly adopted in previous research. However, the mathematical models in these studies are complex and many parameters are required in relation to upstream and/or downstream gauging stations. Moreover, too many assumptions or simplifications for these parameters and constraints directly lead to low accuracy of the models and limitations as to their practical applications. This paper develops a fuzzy optimization neural network approach for the forecast of freeze-up date and break-up date. The Inner Mongolia reach lies in the top north of the Yellow River, China. Almost every year ice floods occur because of its special geographical location, hydrometeorological conditions and river course characteristics. Therefore, it is of particular importance for ice flood prevention to forecast freeze-up date and break-up date accurately. A case study in this region shows that the proposed methodology may allow obtaining useful results.     

In situ yield behaviour of a coal pillar

Summary An indication of the complete stress-strain behaviour of coal was obtained through instrumenting a headgate yield pillar and monitoring the changes in vertical and horizontal pillar stress, pillar strain, and roof-floor convergence as a function of time and distance from the moving longwall face. A semiautomated monitoring program was conducted over a 5 month period as the longwall face advanced toward and eventually passed the instrumented pillar. The development of a confined core and yield zone within the pillar was confirmed by the vertical and horizontal stress changes. Thein situ pre-failure (208 to 661 MPa) and post-failure moduli (55 to 208 MPa) of the coal were determined from the change in pillar stress versus pillar strain. Thein situ moduli are an order of magnitude lower than the 3450 MPa, commonly assumed for coal.     

1989 Datong-Yanggao Earthquake with Ms=6.1

In this paper,the basic conditions and characteristics of the Datong-Yanggao earthquake are described in detail.The type of the earthquake,the aftershock activity,the earthquake trend,the characteristics of damage are analyzed and discussed.This earthquake belongs to a sequence of earthquake swarm type and is of the concentratedly occurring characteristics of several main shocks in a time sequence,and the aftershock activity was normally attenuated.Because of the unreasonable design of buildings and repeated vibration by several destructive main shocks within a short period,the damage in the high intensity region was aggravated.The analysis and the prediction procedure of the 1991 Datong-Yanggao earthquake(Ms=5.8)are also briefly given.     

五寨4.8ML地震宏观考察与震害评估

本文介绍了对１９９３的９月１１日五寨４．８ＭＬ地震的考察情况，确定宏观震中在五寨县丰兑坡与河曲县土沟村一带，震中烈度为６度。计算得出本次地震的总经济损失约１５万元。     

邢台地震房屋破坏率的正态性X￣2检验

对１９６６年３月８日和３月２２日台地震中的房屋破坏情况进行统计，计算了地震区主要房屋土坯墙房在Ⅳ～Ⅸ度中的毁坏率、严重破坏率和中等破坏率。通过Ｘ￣２检验得出，Ⅵ度和Ⅸ度区房屋毁坏率、严重破坏率和中等破坏率的分布均服从正态分布     

关于"和平花园"静压预应力管桩施工的技术、质量探讨

白恶统红层强烈风化复杂工程地质条件下,基础处理采用静压预应力管桩,可能出现管桩长度难以控制“超长桩”现象,广州和平花园施工实践表明,局部管桩长度难以控制,主要与持力层度剧烈变化及有上硬下软或硬夹层的工程地质条件有关。“超长桩”现象为一般管桩通过硬夹层折射;断桩在某软弱部位堆积造成。     

煤矿立井非采动破裂工程地质勘察方法

深厚表土中煤矿立井非采动破裂是一种新的矿井地质灾害。以往的煤田地质勘探工作没有涉及该问题。本文建议立井破裂工程地质勘察可划分为初步勘察和详细勘察两阶段，提出了各阶段应包含的具体工作内容和工作方法；特别是提出要进行模拟土与井壁相互作用试验，获得不同埋深土层与井壁相互作用的力学参数；提出在勘探阶段判断厚表土层中煤矿立井非采动破裂的系统工作方法。最后给出了一勘察分析实例。     

资源地区空气氡浓度调查与剂量估算

对广西资源地区大气中氡的调查结果显示，该区室内、外大气中平均氡浓度分别为101.0Bq/m^3和104.6Bq/m^3，是世界平均值的10倍和2.5倍；计算了氡子体所致的年有效剂量，由氡子体照射对成人和儿童所致年均有效剂量分别为6.2mSv/a和9.2mSv/a，是世界平均值的5倍。     

综合物探方法在地质灾害调查中的应用研究

介绍了在地质灾害调查中常用的几种物探方法的适用条件和应用范围,并通过实例展示了各种方法的应用效果。结果表明浅层物探方法应用效果显著,在地质灾害调查中具有较好的应用前景。     

Investigation of a landslide in the new site of Badong County by integrated geophysical survey

An integrated geophysical survey which combines vertical seismic profile method, shallow reflection seismic method, electric sounding, soil temperature measurement and radioactive gas measurement was used to investigate Zhaoshuling landslide in the new site of Badong County and to assess the stability of the landslide. By rational use of these methods together with borehole geological profile and other geological information, the spatial distribution of the landslide body, the formations and structures within and without the landslide body were determined and the stability of the landslide was also assessed, thus making great contribution to the successful and rational investigation and assessment of the landslide.