日冕中无衰减振荡的研究进展

日冕中冕环的无衰减横向振荡(简称无衰减振荡)自2012年被发现以来,受到了广泛的关注.无衰减振荡具有在日冕中广泛存在以及振幅无明显变小的特性,使之在解释日冕加热和冕震学诊断上都具有相当的潜力.总结了日冕中无衰减振荡的研究进展,包括观测研究得到的一系列结果、提出的理论和数值模型以及基于无衰减振荡进行冕震学诊断的一些尝试,并且展望了未来可以进一步开展的研究.     

冬季北极涛动与行星波活动的关系

为了进一步认识北极涛动与行星波之间的关系,利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料并借助谐波分析、相关分析等方法讨论了北极涛动异常下行星波的活动情况。结果表明:在北极涛动指数强(弱)值年,纬向平均风场在中纬度明显减小(增大),在中高纬度明显增大(减小);行星波1波振幅在低纬度对流层中层和中纬度平流层明显增大(减小),在高纬度平流层明显减小(增大);2波振幅在中纬度对流层明显减小(增大),在高纬度平流层有所增大(减小)。E-P通量反映出在北极涛动强(弱)值年,行星波1波在中高纬度从地面向上传播显著增强(减弱),低纬度波导显著增强(减弱),极地波导显著减弱(增强);2波在中高纬度从地面向上传播显著减弱(增强),低纬度波导和极地波导变化不明显。     

Brief Review of Some CLIVAR-Related Studies in China

The Climate Variability and Predictability （CLIVAR） program is one of the sub-programs of the World Climate Research Program （WCRP）. In this paper, CLIVAR related research in China （2003-2006） is briefly reviewed, including four major components, namely, low-frequency intraseasonal oscillations, interannual variability, decadal variations in East Asia, and global warming simulations.     

2023年秋季我国气候异常特征及成因分析

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析数据集和中国2400个站的气候观测数据,对2023年秋季我国气候异常特征及其成因进行分析。2023年秋季全国平均气温为1961年以来历史同期最高;全国平均降水量接近常年同期,但空间分布不均且季节内变化明显。秋季欧亚中高纬环流呈“两槽一脊”型,造成我国气温显著偏高;9月呈“两脊一槽”型,巴尔喀什湖低槽活动导致西北地区降水增多;10月呈“两槽一脊”型,导致北方地区偏暖加强;11月呈“西高东低”型,东路冷空气增强,东北地区气温偏低、降水偏多。西太平洋副热带高压总体较常年偏强、偏西,脊线9月异常偏北、10月偏南、11月接近常年。印缅槽9月显著偏强,10—11月接近常年。9月印缅槽偏强与副热带高压异常偏北共同导致了长江中下游以北至黄河下游地区多雨;10—11月东部地区水汽条件整体偏差。9—10月近海台风频繁活动,造成华南地区降水偏多。2023年秋季我国气候受到大气季节内变化的显著作用,热带海温异常的影响不典型。     

Global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection,streamflow forecasting and interannual variability

Abstract

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been linked to climate anomalies throughout the world. This paper presents an overview of global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection and identifies regions where the relationship may be exploited to forecast streamflow several months ahead. The teleconnection is investigated by fitting a first harmonic to 24-month El Niño streamflow composites from 581 catchments worldwide and the potential for forecasting is investigated by calculating the lag correlation between streamflow and two indicators of ENSO. The analyses indicate clear ENSO-streamflow teleconnections in many catchments, some of which are consistent across large geographical regions. Strong and regionally consistent ENSO-streamflow teleconnections are identified in Australia and New Zealand, South and Central America, and weaker signals are identified in some parts of Africa and North America. The results suggest that the ENSO-streamflow relationship and the serial correlation in streamflow can be used to successfully forecast streamflow. The streamflow forecasts can be used to help manage water resources, particularly in systems with high interannual variability in Australia, southern and drier parts of Africa and some areas of North America.     

QUASI-RESONANCE OF BAROCLINIC ATMOSPHERIC WAVES AND EXTRATROPICAL LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION*

In operating the quasi-geostrophic two-layer model,the quasi-resonance occurs possibly in two cases:(1)pure barotropic waves;(2) two baroclinic and one barotropic waves.For case (2),we find the analytical solution of triad amplitude of quasi-resonance and approximate expression for the period of wave energy variation.Both the approximate expression and numerical calculation indicate that this period tends to approach the period (2πε)/(△ω) of the quasi-resonance frequency mismatch △ω itself for the baroclinic atmosphere than for the barotropic atmosphere.Physically,there is a feedback mechanism between the wave phase and amplitude,and the slowly varying phase difference between the barotropic wave and the baroclinic wave causes the conversion of kinetic energy and available potential energy,which gives rise to the wave-related low-frequency oscillation alternatively strengthening and weakening with the oscillation period identical to the above approximate formula.For △ω～(0.1-0.02) 0(ωj),the averaged energy period is 12-43 days and when △ω=0,it is 366 days.Therefore,the occurrence of frequency mismatch △ω is probably a new important mechanism for the formation of extratropical low-frequency oscillation in baroclinic atmosphere as well.     

初夏亚洲季风区环流低频振荡与长江下游持续暴雨

利用主成份分析和非整数波功率谱分析研究了1991年初夏亚洲季风区逐日500 hPa环流的时空分布特征。结果表明，主成份分析得到的前5个特征向量的空间分布与各个季风系统的活动有关，其时间系数存在显著的12—22天准周期振荡和28—31，43—65天的低频振荡周期，它们与长江下游暴雨形成有密切联系。当第一主成份从谷点上升且第二主成份稳定地增大（减小）时，长江下游出现持续暴雨。亚洲副热带海洋加热异常和海陆热力差异产生的不均匀加热分布激发的各种低频波及其相互作用导致向热带外能量频散的异常，是引起长江下游持续暴雨的     

电离层赤道异常两日振荡的数值模拟

近20年来,国外学者对电离层赤道异常问题的数值模拟研究未考虑到大气行星波对潮汐发电机电场的调制效应,因而不能解释赤道异常峰值的逐日变化.本文结果表明二日波对F_2区电子浓度的输运有很大影响.这一方法可以推广到赤道异常各种长周期行星波振荡的数值研究. 本文从非定常等离子体连续方程出发,建立包含行星波振荡对E×B漂移的调制效应的方程,并给出数值模拟的方法以及可与实际观测进行比较的结果.文中取二日波漂移振幅为U_p=0 m/s、5m/s、10m/s,而初位相分别为φ=0°、90°共四种情形进行了模拟,结果表明,二日波的调制可使赤道异常的时空分布以及异常峰值产生明显的逐日变化.在所选取的模型中,取U_p=5m/s,φ=0°所得到的f_0F_2t的二日分布特征与观测较吻合.而u_p约5m/s的变化能引起异常峰值f_0F_2约1-2MHz的起伏,而二天之内f_0F_2的二个峰值表现出约2-4MHz的起伏.