宁夏短期天气预报业务流程

介绍了以宁夏ＭＯＳ预报结果为基本指导产品、结合宁夏气象业务具体情况、通过二次开发建立在微机上的新型短期天气预报业务流程。该流程的建立,使宁夏短期天气预报人员基本摆脱了传统的纸上作业而转向新型的计算机预报平台,使宁夏短期天气预报的自动化水平上了一个新台阶。     

Comparing flow regime,channel hydraulics,and biological communities to infer flow–ecology relationships in the Mara River of Kenya and Tanzania

Abstract

Equatorial rivers of East Africa exhibit unusually complex seasonal and inter-annual flow regimes, and aquatic and adjacent terrestrial organisms have adapted to cope with this flow variability. This study examined the annual flow regime over the past 40 years for three gauging stations on the Mara River in Kenya and Tanzania, which is of international importance because it is the only perennial river traversing the Mara-Serengeti ecoregion. Select environmental flow components were quantified and converted to ecologically relevant hydraulic variables. Vegetation, macroinvertebrates, and fish were collected and identified at target study sites during low and high flows. The results were compared with available knowledge of the life histories and flow sensitivities of the riverine communities to infer flow–ecology relationships. Management implications are discussed, including the need to preserve a dynamic environmental flow regime to protect ecosystems in the region. The results for the Mara may serve as a useful model for river basins of the wider equatorial East Africa region.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman     

视频对象分割及跟踪方法研究

讨论和分析了视频对象全自动提取及后续帧中的跟踪过程及采用的方法,对其算法、分割性能和结果进行了比较和评述。并结合Hausdorff和Snake跟踪器,对初始对象轮廓进行跟踪。结果证明,这种跟踪方法能有效地解决对象被遮挡和形变以及背景移动的问题。     

Frictional heat generation and seismic radiation in a foam rubber model of earthquakes

Results from a study of stick-slip particle motion at the interface between two stressed foam rubber blocks indicate that normal vibrations and interface separation are an important part of the stick-slip process in foam rubber. The dimension of the dynamic slip pulse is small compared to the dimension of the model (approximately 10 cm vs. 200 cm) consistent with the abrupt-locking slip pulse model ofBrune (1970, 1976), andHeaton (1990). A comparison of frictional heat generation between stable-sliding and stick-slip foam rubber models indicates a linear relation between the temperature increase on the fault surface (for a given distance of slip) and the driving shear force for the stable-sliding model, while for the stick-slip model there is essentially no variation in frictional heat generation with an increase in shear stress. We performed experiments to investigate the ratio of normal motion to shear motion at different levels of normal stress in the stick-slip foam rubber model. Preliminary result indicate that the normal component of the particle motion increases more rapidly with increasing normal stress than the shear component. The phenomenon of interface separation and normal vibrations may thus explain some of the most frustrating problems in earthquake mechanics, e.g., the heat flow paradox, the long-term weakness of major active faults, and anomalousP-wave radiation.     

上市公司与客户联系视角下的中国城际网络结构时空演化研究

企业间的联系是城市联系的重要组成部分,加强对基于企业间联系的城市功能网络分析对丰富城市网络理论研究具有重要意义。采用2010—2020年上市公司与其前五大客户间的贸易关系数据构建了中国城市网络,基于企业间的贸易联系视角分析城市网络时空演变特征。研究表明：(1) 2010—2020年间城市网络规模呈现先升后降的特征,整体网络密度较低,位于0.014～0.018之间;网络重心呈现“S”形空间轨迹变化和整体向南移动的趋势,网络总体空间结构由沿海向“T”形结构转变;(2)网络流量集中于少数节点城市,资金进出量前20城市总额占资金总流量的71.9%,北京、上海是网络的绝对核心,杭州、武汉、深圳、广州等省会或副省级城市承担着区域中心的功能,佛山、齐齐哈尔、南通等制造业发达城市是重要节点;(3)五大城市群中珠江三角洲网络密度最高,位于0.324～0.334之间,长江三角洲贸易总流量最高,为783.5亿元,长江中游城市群和成渝城市群网络发育相对滞后;(4)新冠疫情对整体网络的贸易流量和网络结构产生了明显影响,网络社团进一步分化重组,广州—深圳社团明显增强,上海社团明显减弱。研究结果对推动国内大循环和统...     

Inter- and intra-annual trend analysis of water level and flow in the middle and lower reaches of the Ganjiang River,China

ABSTRACT

The Ganjiang River is the largest tributary of Poyang Lake in China, and its hydrological regime variation greatly affects the utilization of regional water resources and the ecological environment of the lake. In this study, a novel trend analysis method, the Moving Average over Shifting Horizon (MASH), was applied to investigate the inter- and intra-annual trends of flow and water level from 1976 to 2016 at the Xiajiang and the Waizhou hydrological stations in the Ganjiang River. The Significant Change Rate Method (SCRM) was proposed to determine the MASH averaging parameters. The trend analysis results show a statistically significant decrease in water level series throughout the year and the relationship of flow and water level have changed greatly at the Waizhou station. The sediment load reduction, large-scale sand mining and water level decrease of Poyang Lake are identified as the main causes for the water level decrease.     

Slump debris flows in the Akovolwo Mountains area of Benue State,Nigeria

In September 1979, rain-induced complex landslides occurred in two separate localities along the slopes of the Akovolwo Mountains near Jato-Aka in the Kwande Local Government area of Benue State, Nigeria.The two movements developed on bedrock slopes covered by a veneer of colluvium and (or) residuum no more than 1.5 to 2m deep. Each started as a slump and graduated into a debris flow. The slump, extending downhill a short distance away from the head scarp, had been reconstituted into a debris flow as the initial movement (sliding movement) of the soil mass caused remoulding of the saturated moving mass into viscous debris-laden mud. The resulting mass moved partly along a pre-existing mountain stream channel and partly along a fresh channel it cleared in the savanna forest. At the break of slope, the mass of boulders was dumped and a trail of smaller fragments littered the channels towards the Katsina-Ala River.     

两相流模型在南海内孤立波与沙波相互作用中的应用

为研究内孤立波与沙波的相互作用,本文对基于OpenFOAM的SedWaveFoam求解器进行改进,建立了内孤立波-泥沙运动欧拉两相流模型。在利用试验资料对模型进行验证的基础上,在南海北部典型代表性条件下,模拟分析了500 m水深位置沙波床面上内孤立波作用下的水动力变化和泥沙运动。结果表明,内孤立波逐渐离开沙波时,海底沙波背流面处出现与内孤立波背景流速反向的流速,在内孤立波导致的流场作用下,沙波床面上的泥沙悬起并运动到床面以上的水体中。振幅100 m的内孤立波可以导致床面以上14 m高的位置处出现约0.07 kg/m³的悬沙浓度。     

基于功效系数法的泥石流灾害预警研究

泥石流灾害破坏力巨大,预测预报泥石流发生的可能性是防灾减灾的重要手段,也是国内外学者研究的热点。基于功效系数法原理,在综合分析泥石流灾害发生的气象、地质环境影响因素的基础上,选取了山坡坡度、相对高差、植被覆盖率、沿沟松散物储量、5 d累计降雨量、最大小时雨强和当日雨量为评价因子,采用改进后的层次分析法计算评价因子的权重系数,建立了泥石流预测预警模型。以岫岩地区泥石流为例对预警模型进行检验,预测结果较好地反映了实际情况。表明基于功效系数法的泥石流预测预警模型具备较高的可靠性和实用性,研究结果为泥石流预测预警提供了一种新的思路和方法。     

南海东北部C型内孤立波的观测与分析

基于布放在南海东北部陆坡海域的5套潜标观测到的内孤立波波列数据和孤立波扰动KdV(PKdV)理论,研究内孤立波在趋浅陆架上的传播特征。得出如下结果:1)观测到的内孤立波属于C型内孤立波,即平均重现周期为(23.41±0.31)h。2)内孤立波在西传爬坡过程中,其振幅表现为先增大后减小再增大,与该海域温跃层深度的变化趋势一致;由观测数据和理论计算得到的孤立波振幅增长率(SAGR)数值接近,表明该海域的内孤立波的振幅变化可以采用由孤立波PKdV方程导出的趋浅温跃层理论来描述。3)随着水深变浅,内孤立波传播方向向北偏移,传播速度减小,即在A,B和D站位,传播方向分别为279°,296°和301°,偏转角度达22°;传播速度分别为2.36,2.23和1.47 m/s,减小38%。