基于AGA的SVM需水预测模型研究

需水预测是一个由城市人口、工业水平、社会经济水平共同作用的多因素、多层次的复杂非线性系统.其结果将直接影响受区域水资源承载力约束的产业结构、布局形态等决策.作为一种集中参数预报方法,支持向量机方法具有对未来样本的较好的泛化性能,对于这类资料缺乏、系统结构尚欠清晰的问题可以取得较好的模拟和预测结果.基于此,本文将支持向量机方法引入需水预测领域,建立了需水预测支持向量机模型.同时,本文将加速遗传算法和支持向量机方法耦合起来,构造了支持向量机模型参数的自适应优化算法.模型在珠海市的应用实例表明:与简单遗传算法比较,AGA的模型参数寻优效率更高;与BP神经网络模型相比,SVM模型较好地解决了小样本、经验性等问题,并取得了较高的预测精度.     

Numerical study of the motions and drift force of a floating OWC device

The motion and the drift force of a floating OWC (oscillating water column) wave energy device in regular waves are studied taking account of the oscillating surface-pressure due to the pressure drop across the duct of the air chamber. The potential problem inside the chamber is formulated by making use of the Green integral equation associated with the Rankine-type Green function while the outer problem with the Kelvin-type Green function. The added mass, wave damping and excitation coefficients as well as the motion and drift force of the OWC device are calculated for various values of parameter related to the pressure drop.     

南太平洋辐合带(SPCZ)的特征分析

根据热带西太平洋卫星云图资料及流场特征分析,讨论了南太平洋辐合带(SPCZ)的演变特征和形成机理。提出SPCZ是反映西太暖池同东太冷舌海气耦合系统以及暖池大气同相邻陆区大气间相互作用的重要特征。主要表现为在12～2月的热带西太平洋上的NW/SE辐合带,其形成原因主要应归因于西太暖池本身,以及暖池与东太赤道冷水舌强度与相对位置改变引发的Walker环流位置与走向的变动,另外,新几内亚岛及澳洲大陆也有重要影响。     

Seasonal variations of alkenones and U37 in the Chesapeake Bay water column

Alkenone unsaturation indices (U^K₃₇ and U^K′₃₇) have long been used as proxies for surface water temperature in the open ocean. Recent studies have suggested that in other marine environments, variables other than temperature may affect both the production of alkenones and the values of the indices. Here, we present the results of a reconnaissance field study in which alkenones were extracted from particulate matter filtered from the water column in Chesapeake Bay during 2000 and 2001. A multivariate analysis shows a strong positive correlation between U^K₃₇ (and U^K′₃₇) values and temperature, and a significant negative correlation between U^K₃₇ (and U^K′₃₇) values and nitrate concentrations. However, temperature and nitrate concentrations also co-vary significantly. The temperature vs. U^K₃₇ relationships (U^K₃₇=0.018 (T)−0.162, R²=0.84, U^K′₃₇=0.013 (T)−0.04, R²=0.80) have lower slopes than the open-ocean equations of Prahl et al. [1988. Further evaluation of long-chain alkenones as indicators of paleoceanographic conditions. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 52, 2303–2310] and Müller et al. [1998. Calibration of the alkenone paleotemperature index U^K′₃₇ based on core-tops from the eastern South Atlantic and the global ocean (60°N–60°S). Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 62, 1757–1772], but are similar to the relationships found in controlled studies with elevated nutrient levels and higher nitrate:phosphate (N:P) ratios. This implies that high nutrient levels in Chesapeake Bay have either lowered the U^K₃₇ vs. temperature slope, or nutrient levels are the main controller of the U^K₃₇ index. In addition, particularly high abundances (>5% of total C₃₇ alkenones) of the tetra-unsaturated ketone, C_37:4, were found when water temperatures reached 25 °C or higher, thus posing further questions about the controls on alkenone production as well as the biochemical roles of alkenones.     

Response of the barrier island coastal region of southwestern Nigeria to climate and non-climate forcing

Despite threats emanating from the influence of climate and non-climate forcing on the barrier island coastal region of southwestern Nigeria, the extent of the coastal erosion is poorly understood. We report evidence of coastal erosion and sediment accumulation in the region over a 34-year period (1973–2017), using Landsat imagery at intervals of approximately six years. Landsat image corrections and various water-extraction algorithms were used to systematically delineate coastal erosion and accumulation in the area. The region was subdivided into western and eastern subregions separated by Lagos Harbour. In the west, erosion took place during the periods 1973–1979, 1979–1984, 1990–1999 and 2005–2011, whereas in the east, erosion occurred during 1973–1979, 1990–1999 and 1999–2005. Coastal sediment accumulation occurred in the east during 1979–1984, 1984–1990, 2005–2011 and 2011–2017, whereas gains in the west occurred during 1984–1990, 1999–2005 and 2011–2017. The study revealed substantial net erosion of 1 228.1 ha in the region as a whole, over the full period. Sediment accumulation accompanying the coastal erosion appears to be linked to longshore drift. Erosion between 1973 and 2011 was probably attributable to climate change (storms and tidal conditions), longshore drift, the inflow and outflow of water at Lagos Harbour, coastal morphology and, possibly, human impacts. However, the coastal changes between 2011 and 2017 were more obviously associated with human activities, such as development of the Eko Atlantic construction project. Coastal surveillance, together with the use of environmentally sensitive protective measures, could possibly help to reduce coastal erosion in the region. Careful coastal management practices, including artificial nourishing and the installation of resilient structures (e.g. seawalls), should be undertaken to protect human settlements that are already at risk from sea-level rise.     

Trichodesmium erythraeum (Ehrenberg) bloom along the southwest coast of India (Arabian Sea) and its impact on trace metal concentrations in seawater

The incidence of a large scale Trichodesmium erythraeum bloom along the southwest coast of India (Arabian Sea) observed in May 2005 is reported. Around 4802 filaments of T. erythraeum ml⁻¹ seawater was observed and a colony consisted of 3.6 × 10⁵ cells. The bloom was predominant off Suratkal (12° 59′N and 74° 31′E) with a depth of about 47 m, covering an area of 7 km in length and 2 km width. The concentrations of Zinc, Cadmium, Lead, Copper, Nickel and Cobalt were determined in samples collected from the bloom and non-bloom sites using stripping voltammetry. The observed hydrographical and meteorological parameters were found to be favorable for the bloom. The concentrations of Zinc, Cadmium and Nickel were found to be higher at bloom stations, while the concentrations of Lead, Copper and Cobalt were found to be very low at bloom stations. Elevated concentrations of Cadmium and Cobalt were observed at Valappad mainly due to the decomposition of detrital material produced in the bloom. Statistically significant differences (P > 0.01) in metal concentrations between the bloom and non-bloom stations were not observed except for Copper. Metals such as Lead, Copper and Cobalt were removed from the seawater at all places where bloom was observed. Cadmium was found to be slowly released during the decaying process of the bloom.     

罗氏沼虾育苗用水中Mg2+与Ca2+含量及Mg2+/Ca2+对出苗率的影响

１９９１年３－６月和１９９２年３－６月在南汇县东海水产养殖公司对罗氏沼虾育苗用水调配原则与不同基础水的调配方法进行试验研究。结果表明，育苗用水中Ｍｇ＾２＋与Ｃａ＾２＋含量及Ｍｇ＾２＋／Ｃａ＾２＋必须达到一定的范围，这是调配的基本原则。以鱼塘水作基础水时，需添加６种化学药品，其中Ｍｇ＾２＋与Ｃａ＾２＋含量可适范围分别为３００．０－４４０．０ｍｇ／Ｌ与１７０．０－２４４．０ｍｇ／Ｌ，Ｍｇ＾２＋／Ｃａ＾     

胶州湾海域水质预测

在已建潮流模型的基础上,用ADI法建立了胶州湾扩大域变动边界的平流—扩散输运模型,以COD为指示因子,预测了胶州湾海域1995年、2000年的水质、青岛环海公路海上段、沧口区北半部污水截流、北水南调、集中排放以及胶州湾西部经济开发对海域水质的影响等。为青岛市环保部门制定环保规划提供决策依据。     

Numerical Simulation of Residual Circulation due to Bottom Rouglmess Variability Under Tidal Flows in A Semi-Enclosed Bay

Nowadays there are some chronic serious environmental problems, such as eutrophication, blue tide and so on, in a complicated coastal zone or a semi-enclosed bay, because the water exchanges between an inner bay and an outer sea is weak compared with the supply of contaminant. Under this situation, a method to improve the water quality by 3-dimensional small unsymmetrical structures has been proposed by Komatsu et al. In this paper, several numerical simulations of the tidal current and concentration for various arrangements of bottom roughness in a semi-enclosed model bay are carfled out with a depth-averaged 2-D numerical model. The model is solved by the hybrid finite analytic method with nonstaggered grid. And the SIMPLES algorithm with Rhie and Chow＇ s momentum interpolation technique is used for the simulation. The effect of Komatsu＇ s method for water purification is examined by numerical simulation. The result of numerical experiment indicates that it is possible to generate a new tidal residual current and to activate a tidal exchange by bottom roughness arrangement only.     

Simulation of green water flow on deck using non-linear dam breaking theory

Experiments carried out with models of floating production, storage and offloading platforms (FPSOs) showed that the flow of water over the deck edge, onto the deck resembled a suddenly released wall of water rather than a breaking wave. Therefore green water flow onto the deck was simulated using dam breaking theory, but the theory’s shallow-water assumptions may be limiting. In this paper a non-linear dam breaking problem is formulated. Equations of motion in the Lagrangian form are used and the solution is sought as an infinite series in time. Comparisons with the shallow water approximation are carried out.