Effect of 2D spatial variability on slope reliability: A simplified FORM analysis

To meet the high demand for reliability based design of slopes, we present in this paper a simplified HLRF(Hasofere Linde Rackwitze Fiessler) iterative algorithm for first-order reliability method(FORM). It is simply formulated in x-space and requires neither transformation of correlated random variables nor optimization tools. The solution can be easily improved by iteratively adjusting the step length. The algorithm is particularly useful to practicing engineers for geotechnical reliability analysis where standalone(deterministic) numerical packages are used. Based on the proposed algorithm and through direct perturbation analysis of random variables, we conducted a case study of earth slope reliability with complete consideration of soil uncertainty and spatial variability.     

太阳变化驱动气候变化研究进展

从5个方面综述了近20年来太阳变化驱动气候变化研究的进展,重点在机制方面,即对全球变暖原因看法的分歧、太阳总辐射量的卫星测量结果、树轮14C记录与太阳变化代用指标、太阳变化影响的模拟研究,以及太阳—宇宙射线—云量的关系。强调这是一个有重大经济和科学意义的前沿课题。     

珠江口西部海域表层沉积物重金属元素多尺度空间变化特征

笔者应用因子克里格分析方法,研究了珠江口西部海域388个表层沉积物中7种重金属元素Cd, Ni,Cu,Zn,Pb,Cr和As的空间结构特征,识别并分离了重金属元素不同尺度的空间主成分及其分布特征,探讨了不同空间尺度重金属的物源及控制因素。结果显示,研究区7种重金属元素在空间上存在块金尺度、局部尺度(变程为60 km的球状结构)和区域尺度(变程为160 km的球状结构)3种尺度的空间变化。以迭代算法模拟了研究区重金属元素线性协同区域化模型。根据不同尺度上区域化因子的主成分得分分布特征可知:局部尺度上,F₁因子(Zn,Cr,Ni,Cu)和F₂因子(As)的高值区表现为"牛眼"状局部特征,并分布在陆地沿海的河口或者港湾区,指示了可能受人为污染成分影响的重金属区域。其中,雷州半岛东部沿海是最可能的重金属污染区,其空间分布主要受控于局部的地形、海流等因素。F₂因子不同于F₁的空间分布,主要在于As不同于Zn,Cr,Ni,Cu等的地球化学行为。区域尺度上,F₁(Zn,Cr,Ni)和F₂(As)因子主要反映了不同陆源母岩物质的影响。Zn,Cr,Ni等主要源于华南大陆陆源母岩物质,而As主要受到海南岛陆源母岩物质的控制。F₁和F₂因子得分高值区整体上表现为NNE向自陆地向较深海域延伸的"片状"分布特征,推测其主要受到海平面变化及NNE向区域性海洋环流的控制。     

Influence of length effect on embankment slope reliability in 3D

Embankment slopes composed of spatially variable soils have a variety of different failure modes that are affected by the correlation distances of the material properties and the geometry and total length of the slope. This paper examines the reliability of soil slopes for embankments of different length and uses parallel computing to analyse very long embankments (up to 100 times the embankment height) for a clay soil characterised by a spatially varying undrained shear strength. Based on a series of analyses using the 3D random finite element method (RFEM), it is first shown that the reliability of slopes of various length can be efficiently computed by combining simple probability theory with a detailed 3D RFEM analysis of a representative shorter slope of length 10 times the slope height. RFEM predictions of reliability indices for longer slopes are then compared with results obtained using Vanmarcke's (1977a) simplified 3D method and Calle's (1985) extended 2D approach. It is shown that these methods can give significantly different results, depending on the horizontal scale of fluctuation relative to the slope length, with RFEM predicting a lower slope reliability than the Vanmarcke and Calle solutions in all cases. The differences in the solutions are evaluated and attributed to differences in the assumed and computed failure surface geometries.     

渗透系数空间变异性研究

水文地质参数的空间变异性是随机理论研究的基础,而渗透系数是最为重要的水文地质参数。国外有关渗透参数空间变异性的研究工作已开展很多,但渗透系数究竟服从什么分布目前尚无确切答案。利用Borden含水层试验数据,对渗透系数的空间变异性进行探讨,结果表明若处理方法得当,渗透系数应服从对数正态分布。同时,还对今后野外开展含水层渗透系数空间变异性试验研究提出几点建议。     

A Reliability Based Expert System for Assessment and Mitigation of Landslides Hazard Under Seismic Loading

Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading using both the safety factor and the displacement criteria of slope failure.The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the different sources of uncertainties involved in the problem. The models also take into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The developed models are incorporated in a computer program PTDDSSA.These analysis/design procedures are incorporated within a code named SARETL developed in this study for stability analysis and remediation of earthquake triggered landslides. In addition to the dynamic inertia forces, the system takes into consideration local site effects.The code is capable of assessing the landslide hazard affecting major transportation routes in the event of earthquakes and preparing earthquake induced landslide hazard maps (i.e., maps showing expected displacements and probability of slope/embankments failure) for different earthquake magnitudes and environmental conditions. It can also beused for proposing a mitigation strategy against landslides.     

淮北平原浅层地下水中铁和锰的空间差异性及影响因素

通过常规和地统计学分析,查明淮北平原浅层地下水中铁锰含量的空间差异性,得出变异函数图符合指数模型,二者都由结构性因素引起。对其空间分布特征进行分析表明,铁、锰在空间呈现相同的分布趋势,超标区主要分布在地势低洼地和低山丘陵区,其含量与岩土成分、地下水所处的氧化还原环境、地下水径流条件、酸碱性等有关。     

Climate impacts of environmental degradation in Sudan

There exists an impressive amount of work for Sudan showing the anthropogenic degradation of natural vegetation cover. However, there are few examples of consequent climatic changes in literature. This work, thus, seeks to assess such effects of environmental forcing on various climatic patterns over the past few decades. Within the frame of the present analysis, the results are quite striking and are in concordance with scientific contentions that such land degradation could result in climatic modification. Higher temperature and less rainfall, sunshine duration and global radiation have been noticed. Evapotranspiration has responded more to the warming and drying conditions, thus showed signs of increasing rates, especially during the wet season. However, the extent of increase seems to have been suppressed by the decrease in sunshine duration and solar radiation as well as the inconsistent behaviour of wind speed. Changes in the variability of the within-year monthly observations have also occurred, thus suggesting an increase in the occurrence of extremes. The observed climatic modification in the country has exaggerated the insidious drought conditions. The present findings are hoped to contribute to our understanding of the effects of environmental problem and assist in considering policy responses. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

参数变异性对围护结构稳定性影响分析

利用可靠度分析方法代替传统的安全系数法来分析基坑围护结构的整体稳定性,考虑岩土参数的不确定性和空间变异性,对土性参数进行空间折减可显著提高可靠度分析的精度。结合工程实例,分析了参数均值和变异系数对基坑整体稳定性可靠度指标的影响。分析表明,可靠度指标β对土体黏聚力c、内摩擦角φ、地面超载q及支护桩嵌固深度hd的均值变化的敏感性较安全系数K对上述参数的敏感性强;c、φ及hd值的变异性对β值影响较大,地面超载较大时,其变异性对β影响较为显著;采用可靠度指标β评价基坑整体稳定性较安全系数K更加合理。