变化中的地球所面临的挑战:全球变化的科学理解(英文)

简要介绍了变化中的地球所面临的挑战 ,并在描述地球系统科学近年来所取得成就的基础上给出了全球变化的科学理解。同时也简要介绍了世界正在面临的主要环境问题 ;描述了气候系统研究所达成的共识、面临的挑战及所取得的研究进展 ;并从大气、海洋和陆地间的CO2 交换、转换、不确定性等方面阐述了碳循环 ;然后 ,简单描述了全球水循环研究进展 ;最后 ,展望了在变化的地球中生存所要面临的挑战与机遇。     

Paleoecology of a Middle Wisconsin Deposit from Southern California

Analysis of a buried deposit in the Diamond Valley of southern California has revealed well-preserved pollen, wood, and diatom remains. Accelerator mass spectrometry dates of 41,200±2100 and 41,490±1380 ¹⁴C yr B.P. place this deposit in marine isotope stage 3. Diatoms suggest a shallow lacustrine environment. Pollen data suggest that several plant communities were present near the site, with grassland, scrub, chaparral, forest, and riparian communities represented. Comparison with modern pollen suggests similarities with montane forests in the nearby San Bernardino and San Jacinto ranges, indicating vegetation lowering by at least 900 m elevation and temperatures 4°–5°C cooler than today. An increase in high-elevation conifer pollen documents climatic cooling near the profile top. Early-profile diatoms are typical of warm water with high alkalinity and conductivity, whereas later diatoms suggest a higher flow regime and input of cooler water into the system. We suggest that the sequence is part of the cooling phase of an interstadial Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle. Records of the middle Wisconsin period are rare in southern California, but the Diamond Valley site is similar to records from Tulare Lake in the San Joaquin Valley and the ODP Site 893A record from Santa Barbara Basin. It is probable that the Diamond Valley assemblage is a local expression of a vegetation type widespread in the ranges and basins of southwestern California during the middle Wisconsin.     

Verification of the dualism ordering method by the canonical correspondence analysis: fish community samples

Two ordination techniques (Romaniszyn diagram, RD, and Canonical correspondence analysis, CCA) were applied to the same data set (fish assemblage composition along two Paraná river tributaries and associated environmental variables), to identify spatial community patterns and further to evaluate the performance of RD. The major patterns in these Brazilian streams were successfully revealed by both methods (i.e. clear separation of both tributaries on the basis of fish assemblage composition and environmental factors), but more complex situations may limit the application of RD in comparison with CCA.     

两个冰期-间冰期旋回的黄土记录及其古气候意义

北京邻区枣沟、斋堂和赤峰黄土－古土壤剖面粒度和磁化率变化在幅度和相位上都有明显的差异。在两个冰期－间冰期旋回，磁化率记录具有冰量变化模式，而粒度记录具有轨道周期特点，粒度和磁化率之间的相位关系在从冰期向间冰期转换和冰期向间冰期过渡的过程中，既有滞后也有超前的表现，很难单纯以成土作用来解释。由于黄土粒度主要反映粉尘源区环境和古风场强度的变化，而磁化率主要记录的是沉积区的成壤作用，反映夏季风的强度变化，因此剖面粒度和磁化率变化的不协调说明古风场和粉尘源区变化与粉尘沉积区气候变化之间不统一。这可能意味着控制夏季风强度变化和控制冬季风强度变化的机制存在差异。     

Modelling of oxygen and nitrogen cycling as a function of macrophyte community in the Thau lagoon

A three-dimensional model coupling physical and biological processes for the whole Thau lagoon (Mediterranean coast of France) was developed in order to assess the relationships between macrophytes and the oxygen and nitrogen cycles. Ten species have been inserted as forcing variables in the model. Plankton dynamics, shellfish cultivation impact and mineralization of organic matter are also considered, as well as nutrient and oxygen exchanges between the sediment and the water column.Simulations with and without the macrophytes have shown that the system can be characterized as having a highly structured pattern involving lagoon nitrogen and oxygen cycles. This pattern is created by the combined influence of macrophytes, watershed and oyster farming.The model has been also used to assess the total annual macrophyte production at the whole lagoon scale. Comparisons with phytoplankton production and with results from other temperate lagoons have underlined the high productivity of the Thau lagoon supported by active nutrient regeneration.     

Temporal variations in magma composition at Merapi Volcano (Central Java, Indonesia): magmatic cycles during the past 2000 years of explosive activity

Merapi Volcano (Central Java, Indonesia) has been frequently active during Middle to Late Holocene time producing basalts and basaltic andesites of medium-K composition in earlier stages of activity and high-K magmas from 1900 ¹⁴C yr BP to the present. Radiocarbon dating of pyroclastic deposits indicates an almost continuous activity with periods of high eruption rates alternating with shorter time spans of distinctly reduced eruptive frequency since the first appearance of high-K volcanic rocks. Geochemical data of 28 well-dated, prehistoric pyroclastic flows of the Merapi high-K series indicate systematic cyclic variations. These medium-term compositional variations result from a complex interplay of several magmatic processes, which ultimately control the periodicity and frequency of eruptions at Merapi. Low eruption rates and the absence of new influxes of primitive magma from depth allow the generation of basaltic andesite magma (56–57 wt% SiO₂) in a small-volume magma reservoir through fractional crystallisation from parental mafic magma (52–53 wt% SiO₂) in periods of low eruptive frequency. Magmas of intermediate composition erupted during these stages provide evidence for periodic withdrawal of magma from a steadily fractionating magma chamber. Subsequent periods are characterised by high eruption rates that coincide with shifts of whole-rock compositions from basaltic andesite to basalt. This compositional variation is interpreted to originate from influxes of primitive magma into a continuously active magma chamber, triggering the eruption of evolved magma after periods of low eruptive frequency. Batches of primitive magma eventually mix with residual magma in the magmatic reservoir to decrease whole-rock SiO₂ contents. Supply of primitive magma at Merapi appears to be sufficiently frequent that andesites or more differentiated rock types were not generated during the past 2000 years of activity. Cyclic variations also occurred during the recent eruptive period since AD 1883. The most recent eruptive episode of Merapi is characterised by essentially uniform magma compositions that may imply the existence of a continuously active magma reservoir, maintained in a quasi-steady state by magma recharge. The whole-rock compositions at the upper limit of the total SiO₂ range of the Merapi suite could also indicate the beginning of another period of high eruption rates and shifts towards more mafic compositions.     

大气环流模式的完全控制试验与模式大气的年际异常研究

对大气环流模式提出了完全控制试验（ＦＣ）的概念，对包括陆面下垫面在内的整个地球表面的热力强迫作了控制。在ＦＣ中，可以更好地分离出大气内动力过程对于模式大气短期气候异常的影响。利用ＩＡＰ２－ＬＡＧＣＭ（中国科学院大气物理所二层大气环流模式）实施了完全控制试验。结果表明，北半球夏半年ＦＣ的月平均海平面气压（ＳＬＰ）年际异常较Ｃ的小，而全球或南半球ＦＣ与Ｃ的ＳＬＰ无明显差别。东亚－西太平洋区域夏半年ＦＣ的月平均ＳＬＰ年际异常甚至高于Ｃ的，意味着该区域模式大气环流短期气候异常中大气内动力过程的作用不可忽视。     

STUDY ON THE AIR-SEA INTERACTION ON THE INTERANNUAL TIME SCALE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA*

In this paper we document the correlationship between sea surface temperature(SST) and low level-winds such as sea level wind and 850 hPa wind in the South China Sea(SCS) based on COADS(1958-1987) and ECMWF objective analysis data(1973-1986).Further statistical analyses tell us that there is a fixed SCS basin mode for variations both of SST and low-level winds in the region on the interannual time scale due to air-sea interactions.A simplified,coupled model that is designed following the McCreary and Anderson's(1985) model and includes the feedback between the upper ocean and the circulation of East Asian monsoon demonstrates an interannual oscillation in the coupled air-sea system,which is similar to the observations in the SCS.     

Sustainable management of a coastal lagoonal system (Ria Formosa, Portugal): An ecological model for extensive aquaculture

The Ria Formosa lies in southern Portugal, extending for about 55 km. It is a true barrier island system, comprising mainland, backbarrier lagoons, inlet deltas, barrier islands, barrier platforms and shoreface. Of the Ria Formosa system, which covers a total area of 163 km², 20 km² are occupied by salinas and aquaculture ponds. The main water reservoir of thesalinas and the extensive aquaculture ponds behave like small lagoons where there are one or more openings to a tidal channel. These small lagoons have the advantage of being easy to study and to model. An ecological model was developed to estimate the potential production of the gilthead seabream in the Ria Formosa, in an extensive aquaculture regime. This model was based on information concerning chemical and physical factors (forcing functions) and secondary production estimates from four sites in the Ria Formosa with different environmental conditions, where extensive aquaculture is practised. Published information on optimal growth parameters of the gilthead was used to build the model, which was based on some assumptions concerning the detrimental effect of an excessive increase of salinity and other environmental factors both on gilthead growth (one state variable) and on prey production (divided into two state variables), which is essentially benthic macrofauna. Reservoirs with low water renewal undergo large environmental fluctuations. The growth of gilthead or other fish can be difficult, not only because of the adverse environmental conditions but also because of the low secondary production. The maximum yield of fish is predicted to be less than 6 g m⁻². In reservoirs where the water exchanges on almost every tide, the maximum yield of gilthead can be in excess of 22–25 g m⁻². Nevertheless, the high productivity of these sites in terms of secondary production of benthos and fish, as well as primary production, can lead to oxygen depletion during the night or at day-break. An attempt to further improve fish production by fertilisation or by adding food could provoke a rapid deterioration of the water quality and endanger all production.     

岩浆活动旋回与地球多层对流系统

从地球历史的节律角度讨论岩浆活动旋回。岩浆活动旋回可按时间与空间分出相互对应的不同尺度，进而可与深度尺度不同的地球多层对流系统相互对应，从而给予了岩浆活动旋回的动力学意义。岩浆活动的时间周期愈长，空间尺度亦愈大，需要的维持岩浆源存在的热能、挥发分供给的数量与深度亦愈大。