Depths of Partial Crystallization of H2O-bearing MORB: Phase Equilibria Simulations of Basalts at the MAR near Ascension Island (7 11{degrees}S)

Phase equilibria simulations were performed on naturally quenchedbasaltic glasses to determine crystallization conditions priorto eruption of magmas at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) east ofAscension Island (7–11°S). The results indicate thatmid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) magmas beneath different segmentsof the MAR have crystallized over a wide range of pressures(100–900 MPa). However, each segment seems to have a specificcrystallization history. Nearly isobaric crystallization conditions(100–300 MPa) were obtained for the geochemically enrichedMORB magmas of the central segments, whereas normal (N)-MORBmagmas of the bounding segments are characterized by polybariccrystallization conditions (200–900 MPa). In addition,our results demonstrate close to anhydrous crystallization conditionsof N-MORBs, whereas geochemically enriched MORBs were successfullymodeled in the presence of 0·4–1 wt% H₂O in theparental melts. These estimates are in agreement with direct(Fourier transform IR) measurements of H₂O abundances in basalticglasses and melt inclusions for selected samples. Water contentsdetermined in the parental melts are in the range 0·04–0·09and 0·30–0·55 wt% H₂O for depleted and enrichedMORBs, respectively. Our results are in general agreement (within±200 MPa) with previous approaches used to evaluate pressureestimates in MORB. However, the determination of pre-eruptiveconditions of MORBs, including temperature and water contentin addition to pressure, requires the improvement of magma crystallizationmodels to simulate liquid lines of descent in the presence ofsmall amounts of water. KEY WORDS: MORB; Mid-Atlantic Ridge; depth of crystallization; water abundances; phase equilibria calculations; cotectic crystallization; pressure estimates; polybaric fractionation     

Pressures of Crystallization of Icelandic Magmas

Iceland lies astride the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and was createdby seafloor spreading that began about 55 Ma. The crust is anomalouslythick (20–40 km), indicating higher melt productivityin the underlying mantle compared with normal ridge segmentsas a result of the presence of a mantle plume or upwelling centeredbeneath the northwestern edge of the Vatnajökull ice sheet.Seismic and volcanic activity is concentrated in 50 km wideneovolcanic or rift zones, which mark the subaerial Mid-AtlanticRidge, and in three flank zones. Geodetic and geophysical studiesprovide evidence for magma chambers located over a range ofdepths (1·5–21 km) in the crust, with shallow magmachambers beneath some volcanic centers (Katla, Grimsvötn,Eyjafjallajökull), and both shallow and deep chambers beneathothers (e.g. Krafla and Askja). We have compiled analyses ofbasalt glass with geochemical characteristics indicating crystallizationof ol–plag–cpx from 28 volcanic centers in the Western,Northern and Eastern rift zones as well as from the SouthernFlank Zone. Pressures of crystallization were calculated forthese glasses, and confirm that Icelandic magmas crystallizeover a wide range of pressures (0·001 to 1 GPa), equivalentto depths of 0–35 km. This range partly reflects crystallizationof melts en route to the surface, probably in dikes and conduits,after they leave intracrustal chambers. We find no evidencefor a shallow chamber beneath Katla, which probably indicatesthat the shallow chamber identified in other studies containssilica-rich magma rather than basalt. There is reasonably goodcorrelation between the depths of deep chambers (> 17 km)and geophysical estimates of Moho depth, indicating that magmaponds at the crust–mantle boundary. Shallow chambers (<7·1 km) are located in the upper crust, and probablyform at a level of neutral buoyancy. There are also discretechambers at intermediate depths (11 km beneath the rift zones),and there is strong evidence for cooling and crystallizing magmabodies or pockets throughout the middle and lower crust thatmight resemble a crystal mush. The results suggest that themiddle and lower crust is relatively hot and porous. It is suggestedthat crustal accretion occurs over a range of depths similarto those in recent models for accretionary processes at mid-oceanridges. The presence of multiple stacked chambers and hot, porouscrust suggests that magma evolution is complex and involvespolybaric crystallization, magma mixing, and assimilation. KEY WORDS: Iceland rift zones; cotectic crystallization; pressure; depth; magma chamber; volcanic glass     

Flood hazard delineation combining geomorphological and hydrological methods: an example in the Northern Iberian Peninsula

Flood mapping requires the combination and integration of geomorphological and hydrological-hydraulic methods; however, despite this, there is very little scientific literature that compares and validates both methods. Two types of analysis are addressed in the present article. On the one hand, maps of flood plains have been elaborated using geomorphological evidence and historical flood data in the mountainous area of northwestern Spain, covering an area of more then 232 km² of floodplains. On the other hand, a hydrometeorological model has been developed (Clark semidistributed unit hydrograph) in the Sarria River basin (155 km², NW Spain). This basin is not gauged, hence the model was subjected to a goodness-of-fit test of its parameter (curve number) by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The peak flows obtained by means of the hydrological model were used for hydraulic modeling (one-phase, one-dimensional and steady flow) in a 4 km² urban stretch of the river bed. The delineation of surface areas affected by floods since 1918, as well as those analyzed subsequent to the geomorphological study, reveals a high degree of reliability in the delineation of the flooded areas with frequent recurrence intervals (<50 years). If we compare these flooded surface areas with the estimate obtained by the hydrological-hydraulic method we can see that the latter method overestimates the extent of the surface water by 144% for very frequent recurrence intervals (>10 years) and underestimates it as the recurrence interval increases, by up to 80% less floodplain for exceptional events (>500 years). Finally, a management map is put forth combining the most reliable results available by integrating both methods. Originally presented at the Sixth International Conference on Geomorphology.     

Numerical modeling of tide-surge interaction along Orissa coast of India

The Orissa coast of India is one of the most vulnerable regions of extreme sea levels associated with severe tropical cyclones. There was extensive loss of life and property due to the October 1999 super cyclone, which devastated large part of the Orissa coast. The shallow nature of the head bay, presence of a large number of deltas formed by major rivers of Orissa such as Mahanadi and Dhamra, and high tidal range are responsible for storm surge flooding in the region. Specifically, rising and falling tidal phases influence the height, duration, and arrival time of peak surge along the coast. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the tide-surge interaction during the 1999 Orissa cyclone by using nonlinear vertically integrated numerical models. The pure tidal solution for the head bay region of the Bay of Bengal provides the initial condition for the fine resolution nested grid Orissa model. However, the feedback from the Orissa model does not affect the head bay model as the study provides a one-way interaction. Numerical experiments are performed to study the tide-surge interaction by considering various relative phases of the tidal waves with the surge-wave produced by 1999 Orissa cyclone. The comparison, although utilizing only the limited estimates of tidal data, appears adequate to assert that the principal features are reproduced correctly.     

Ground motion estimation during the Kashmir earthquake of 8th October 2005

In this article, analytical methods have been used to estimate ground motion during the 8 October 2005, Kashmir earthquake. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at several stations in the epicentral region have been estimated by empirical analytical source mechanism models. As an alternate analysis, PGA estimates have also been obtained using the stochastic finite fault seismological model. The estimated PGAs are compared with that obtained from damage values. A PGA contour map in the near-source region is provided. It is found that very near to the epicenter, PGA would have reached more than 1 g. It is demonstrated that empirical analytical models can be effectively used to estimate ground motion due to rupture of active faults.     

Spatial Variability of Rock Depth in Bangalore Using Geostatistical, Neural Network and Support Vector Machine Models

Geospatial technology is increasing in demand for many applications in geosciences. Spatial variability of the bed/hard rock is vital for many applications in geotechnical and earthquake engineering problems such as design of deep foundations, site amplification, ground response studies, liquefaction, microzonation etc. In this paper, reduced level of rock at Bangalore, India is arrived from the 652 boreholes data in the area covering 220 km². In the context of prediction of reduced level of rock in the subsurface of Bangalore and to study the spatial variability of the rock depth, Geostatistical model based on Ordinary Kriging technique, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models have been developed. In Ordinary Kriging, the knowledge of the semi-variogram of the reduced level of rock from 652 points in Bangalore is used to predict the reduced level of rock at any point in the subsurface of the Bangalore, where field measurements are not available. A new type of cross-validation analysis developed proves the robustness of the Ordinary Kriging model. ANN model based on multi layer perceptrons (MLPs) that are trained with Levenberg–Marquardt backpropagation algorithm has been adopted to train the model with 90% of the data available. The SVM is a novel type of learning machine based on statistical learning theory, uses regression technique by introducing loss function has been used to predict the reduced level of rock from a large set of data. In this study, a comparative study of three numerical models to predict reduced level of rock has been presented and discussed.     

滑坡体三维地质建模与可视化分析

针对滑坡地质研究的自身特点,提出了面向滑坡地质体三维建模的NURBS-BRep混合数据结构和地质结构单元实体构造技术.通过对滑坡基础地质数据的预处理、滑坡数字地形和滑动面的三维建模、地质结构面的系统构造、地质结构体的生成和显示,形成了一套完整的滑坡三维地质模型的构建方法.将该方法应用于某水库滑坡,建立了相应的三维滑坡地质模型,并基于此模型进行了三维剖切分析、数字钻孔、等值线生成、滑块自动剖分、滑坡失稳可视化动态模拟和滑坡体方量精确计算等一系列实用的可视化分析,为滑坡稳定性的准确计算和客观评价提供了有力的支持.     

基于Mindlin理论Winkler地基参数的Kalman滤波识别

提出了Winkler地基参数的Kalman滤波识别方法。引入Mindlin理论后,推导了Winkler地基上板的控制微分方程。利用Fourier变换,推求了Winkler地基上简支板的Fourier闭式解。推导了Winkler地基参数的Kalman滤波方程,研究了Winkler地基参数的Kalman滤波识别的具体计算步骤。研究表明,运用Kalman滤波理论进行Winkler地基参数的识别,能有效地估计Winkler地基参数;Winkler地基参数的滤波收敛速度和精度受地基参数初始值选取和位移实测资料的影响,且Kalman滤波理论也可用于其他地基模型地基参数的识别。     

基于分布式水文模拟的三峡区间洪水预报(Ⅰ)——模型构建及验证

长江三峡区间因暴雨形成的洪水峰高量大,对三峡水库的防洪安全和运行调度的影响很大.本论文依据三峡地区的地形地貌特征,采用基于GIS的机理性分布式水文模型,来模拟三峡区间入库洪水,以尽量减少洪水预报中的不确定性.利用近期建成的78个自动雨量站网监测的小时降雨信息作为模型的输入,对模型参数进行了率定和验证,结果表明:大多数洪水过程的模拟精度较好,但也有的模拟结果较差,其中降雨信息缺失是洪水预报不确定性的主要来源.