国产抛弃式温度剖面仪(XBT)资料质量分析

国家海洋技术中心根据科研需求研发了抛弃式温度剖面仪(XBT)等一系列抛弃式产品.针对2014年8月份在西太平洋海域投放的XBT和XCTD所获取的温度数据进行对比分析,单剖面结果显示两者相关系数达到了0.95,在温跃层处出现温度差,断面标准差分析结果为200 m以上温跃层处较大而200m以下标准差较小,最大和最小标准差值分别为0.39和0.08.温度断面分析结果显示两者在同样的位置出现等值线的凹凸现象,对大洋水团特殊物理海洋现象描述基本一致.分析温跃层处两者温度存在偏差的原因有3个:不同传感器的不同响应时间引起的误差、深度测量公式的误差以及传感器本身的测量误差影响.国产XBT的数据质量较好,总体上性能能满足对环境复杂海域的快速走航观测,数据质量准确度和可靠性都较好.     

Why GPS makes distances bigger than they are

Global navigation satellite systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) is one of the most important sensors for movement analysis. GPS is widely used to record the trajectories of vehicles, animals and human beings. However, all GPS movement data are affected by both measurement and interpolation errors. In this article we show that measurement error causes a systematic bias in distances recorded with a GPS; the distance between two points recorded with a GPS is – on average – bigger than the true distance between these points. This systematic ‘overestimation of distance’ becomes relevant if the influence of interpolation error can be neglected, which in practice is the case for movement sampled at high frequencies. We provide a mathematical explanation of this phenomenon and illustrate that it functionally depends on the autocorrelation of GPS measurement error (C). We argue that C can be interpreted as a quality measure for movement data recorded with a GPS. If there is a strong autocorrelation between any two consecutive position estimates, they have very similar error. This error cancels out when average speed, distance or direction is calculated along the trajectory. Based on our theoretical findings we introduce a novel approach to determine C in real-world GPS movement data sampled at high frequencies. We apply our approach to pedestrian trajectories and car trajectories. We found that the measurement error in the data was strongly spatially and temporally autocorrelated and give a quality estimate of the data. Most importantly, our findings are not limited to GPS alone. The systematic bias and its implications are bound to occur in any movement data collected with absolute positioning if interpolation error can be neglected.     

浮托安装进船过程中护舷碰撞力实测研究

浮托安装法广泛应用于大型组块海上安装。导管架平台上部组块浮托安装进船过程中,风、浪、流引起的浮托驳船横向运动造成浮托驳船与导管架桩腿的碰撞,碰撞力可能会对导管架结构造成损伤。陆丰7-2上部组块浮托安装中,为了监测碰撞力大小,设计了碰撞力海上监测系统。通过在导管架外侧四个桩腿上安装光纤光栅应变传感器对碰撞过程中导管架桩腿进行应力监测,进而计算碰撞力。对碰撞过程,载荷作用位置、方向进行简化,并对载荷大小及垂向作用位置对计算的影响进行了研究。结构分析模型简化后,测点von-Mises应力与碰撞力大小成正比,对导管架整体结构建模计算并取局部结构计算比例系数,结合应力实测数据计算出进船过程中驳船对导管架桩腿碰撞力。     

安全射界技术在人工影响天气对空作业中的应用

本文根据人工影响天气(以下简称人影)作业安全射界管理需求,讨论分析了影响人影作业安全射界因素包括装备性能、弹药稳定性、高空气流、站点海拔和人员操作水平等,提出一种人影作业安全射界精细化绘制思路和方法,设计开发了基于高分辨率卫星影像数据和数字高程模型数据(以下简称DEM数据)人工标识技术的人影安全射界绘制系统。经实践应用,该系统输出的人影作业安全射界图,可解决传统射界图安全标记要素不全、绘制分辨率不高、信息化程度低等问题,对提升作业效益和安全管理水平具有一定的实用价值,可以向开展人影作业的各级单位推广使用。     

The Relationship between Deterministic and Ensemble Mean Forecast Errors Revealed by Global and Local Attractor Radii

It has been demonstrated that ensemble mean forecasts, in the context of the sample mean, have higher forecasting skill than deterministic(or single) forecasts. However, few studies have focused on quantifying the relationship between their forecast errors, especially in individual prediction cases. Clarification of the characteristics of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts from the perspective of attractors of dynamical systems has also rarely been involved. In this paper, two attractor statistics—namely, the global and local attractor radii(GAR and LAR, respectively)—are applied to reveal the relationship between deterministic and ensemble mean forecast errors. The practical forecast experiments are implemented in a perfect model scenario with the Lorenz96 model as the numerical results for verification. The sample mean errors of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts can be expressed by GAR and LAR, respectively, and their ratio is found to approach2~(1/2) with lead time. Meanwhile, the LAR can provide the expected ratio of the ensemble mean and deterministic forecast errors in individual cases.     

改进的灰色预测模型在地面沉降预测中的应用

在地面沉降这一复杂系统中,既含有已知的又古有未知的或非确定的信息,可以作为一个灰色系统来研究.本文针对地面沉降的下沉曲线非线性特征,提出用一种基于残差灰色预测模型对地面沉降量时间序列进行研究.结果表明,通过改进后的灰色预测模型,预测精度得到了提高,在沉降量比较大和水准点比较稀少的地区,利用此模型预测地面沉降可减少地面沉降监测经费,并能实时提供地面沉降预警信息.     

长距离GPS/BDS双系统网络RTK方法

基于区域参考站网的网络实时动态定位(real-time kinematic,RTK)方法是实现全球定位系统(global positioning system,GPS)、北斗卫星导航系统(BeiDou satellite navigation system,BDS)高精度定位的主要手段.研究了一种长距离GPS/BDS双...     

全过程联合校正方法在饶河流域洪水预报中的应用研究

为提高饶河流域洪水预报精度,将全过程联合校正(EPJC)方法与三水源新安江(XAJ)模型结合,按一定比例划分洪水预报总误差为各过程误差,基于系统响应理论反演得到面雨量计算误差和模型参数误差,重新输入流域水文模型正演得出校正后的洪水过程.选取洪峰流量相对误差、峰现时间绝对误差、径流深相对误差和确定性系数作为模型评价指标,...     

一种两步抗差估计的设计及其解算

抗差估计的关键是选择适当的权函数和合理的调制因子,针对这两个重要问题,在研究当前调制因子取值方法的基础之上,提出了可动性调制因子这一新概念,并基于可动性调制因子、IGG方案权函数,设计了两步抗差估计。两步抗差估计解决了抗差估计中传统的调制因子、方差因子、初值三者取值时存在的一系列问题,尤其当三者取值不能协调配制时出现的秩亏问题,从而使抗差估计方法更具有实际意义和广泛意义。     

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