教育公共服务设施可达性评价与规划——以江苏省仪征市高级中学为例

学校是公共服务设施的重要组成部分,其空间分布以及可达性的优劣,直接影响到受教育者接受教育的机会和方便程度。把可达性的概念引入到教育公共设施的规划中,利用Mapinfo公司的控件MapX和Borland公司的可视化编程语言Delphi,开发了基于时间最短的路径选择信息系统,生成了学校可达性的等时线图和学校服务范围图,通过该系统可直观地看到区域内任何一点到达学校所花费的最短时间以及通过的路径。以江苏省仪征市的高级中学为例,运用该系统对高级中学的可达性进行了评价,并提出了其规划方案。     

近540 a东亚夏季海平面气压场的重建及其与数值模拟的比较

 基于中国东部地区旱涝分布和东亚夏季海平面气压存在密切关系的基础上,利用1470—2008年中国东部地区旱涝等级资料、1850—2008年东亚夏季海平面气压资料,运用主成分回归的方法重建了1470—2008年的东亚地区夏季海平面气压场,并对重建结果进行了检验,同时对1470—2008年东亚夏季海平面气压重建场和FGOALS_gl数值模式模拟的海平面气压场进行了对比分析。结果表明:①1850—2008年重建的东亚夏季海平面气压场在东亚夏季风关键区（中国内陆地区以及西北太平洋部分地区）重建效果相对于其他地区要好。②1470—2008年重建的东亚夏季海平面气压场主要存在高纬与中纬气压差异、海洋与陆地差异的两种空间分布型;1470—1999年FGOALS_gl数值模拟的东亚夏季海平面气压主要体现了海陆气压差异。③根据重建的东亚夏季海平面气压场定义的1470—2008年东亚夏季风指数的演变具有明显的阶段性,16世纪中期到17世纪初东亚夏季风偏强,17世纪偏弱,18世纪经历了“弱-强-弱-强-弱”的变化,19世纪则是“强-弱-强-弱”的变化,20世纪是明显的“弱-强-弱”变化。而1470—1999年数值模拟的东亚夏季风指数序列与重建序列的主要差异出现在16世纪末和18世纪末,两者的变化趋势相反,其他时段的变化趋势基本一致。     

Critical distances: Comparing measures of spatial accessibility in the riverine landscapes of Peruvian Amazonia

Quantitative measures of accessibility are increasingly used in land cover change modeling and in assessing human pressure on the environment. In riverine Amazonia the significance of physical accessibility for biodiversity, land use patterns and economic livelihoods is widely acknowledged, but attempts to quantify accessibility in practice have been few in number. In this study we compare different distance- and frequency-based measures of spatial accessibility and develop a quantitative model of accessibility patterns for the north-eastern Peruvian Amazonia where rivers form the core of the transportation network. We model accessibility between the rural areas of the Loreto region and the capital city of Iquitos, using different distance algorithms in a geographic information system, and complement the distance model with information on river boat frequencies and transport capacities. Patterns of accessibility are visualized in terms of potential production zones for different types of agricultural and non-timber forest products.This study demonstrates how results from different accessibility measures vary considerably. The mean Euclidean distance to Iquitos is almost 270 km, the mean network distance nearly 760 km and the mean travel time 70 h. Observed network distances from validation points to Iquitos are on average 1.6 times longer than Euclidean distances, and for the whole study area, the average ratio between modeled network distances and Euclidean distances is 3.1. The correlation between network distances and time distances is very strong, but time distances are relatively shorter along the major channels where boat traffic is considerably faster than along narrow, tightly meandering rivers. Measures of boat frequency and transport capacity show that availability of transport possibilities is highly varying across the region. These measures provide insights into the ’thickness’ of trade, indicating the level of market integration for riverine settlements. We conclude that quantifying accessibility in an environment like Peruvian Amazonia requires measures that take into account the spatial structure and dynamic nature of the riverine transportation network. Time as a unit of distance provides the most relevant measure of accessibility in the Amazonian context, where many human actions and traditional livelihoods are controlled by travel times between the regional core and the hinterland.     

Formation of an Interactive User-Oriented Forecasting System: Experience from Hydrological Application in Linyi, Eastern China

Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system (UIFS) emerging in recent years,the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system,which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target,the physical predictive and downscaling components,and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end.A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble;THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi,a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China.The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information.Although the TIGGE results provided by existing national/international operating models were independent from the user-end,the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.     

Reconstruction of Three-Dimensional Pacific Temperature with Argo and Satellite Observations

Combining Argo temperature and salinity profiles with satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST), weekly three-dimensional temperature fields of the Pacific Ocean were reconstructed for the period January 2000 to December 2010. The data reconstruction methodology we used has three salient features: the first is a combined application of the Optimal Interpolation (OI) and the Multivariate Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Function (MDINEOF) methods, the second is an emphasis on the multivariate nature of the vertical thermohaline structure, and the third is the inclusion of a continuous satellite-derived SST dataset to compensate for the discontinuities and the lack of surface observations in Argo data. Comparisons with other observations and data products indicate that our gridded temperature product is able to capture the main features of temperature distribution as well as its variability from intraseasonal to interannual time scales, thus providing a useful new dataset for ocean and climate studies.

RÉSUMÉ?[Traduit par la rédaction] En combinant les profils de température et de salinité Argo avec les températures de la surface de la mer dérivées des données satellitaires, nous avons reconstruit les champs tridimensionnels hebdomadaires de température de l'océan Pacifique pour la période de janvier 2000 à décembre 2010. La méthodologie de reconstruction des données que nous avons utilisée présente trois points saillants : le premier est une application combinée des méthodes de l'interpolation optimale et de la fonction orthogonale empirique d'interpolation de données multivariées (MDINEOF), le deuxième est une mise en évidence de la nature multivariée de la structure thermohaline verticale et le troisième est l'inclusion d'un ensemble continu de données de température de la surface de la mer dérivées des données satellitaires pour compenser les discontinuités et le manque d'observations de surface dans les données Argo. Les comparaisons avec d'autres observations et produits de données montrent que notre produit de températures à des points de grille est capable de discerner les caractéristiques principales de la distribution des températures de même que sa variabilité de l’échelle intrasaisonnière à l’échelle interannuelle, ce qui fournit un nouvel ensemble de données utile pour les études océaniques et climatiques.     

GIS MCE技术在农业气象灾害风险评价中的应用

气象灾害风险评价涉及多源、多维、多尺度空间数据与社会经济统计数据,对应用GIS结合MCE技术进行农业气象灾害风险评价进行了研究。利用特尔菲专家测定法建立评价准则,利用空间划分技术建立评价单元,利用属性值空间化技术实现对气象灾害影响因素空间分布特征进行描述,以空间叠置计算获得多准则条件下空间单元决策目标分值,从而实现区域气象灾害风险区划。研究表明,GIS结合MCE技术能够较好地整合与气象灾害风险评价相关的各类空间数据和社会统计数据,实现气象灾害风险的定量化评价。以冰雪灾害致灾因子评价为例,证明以上技术方法具有可行性。     

基于Web Service的气象预警短信发布系统设计与实现

昆明市气象预警信息发布系统是以提高预警信息及时性和发布效率为出发点,整合了不同种类自动气象站的数据资源,与气象业务平台无缝集成,实时监控数据并生成满足需求的气象预警短信,通过预警号码管理数据库,确定预警信息受众范围,实现了预警短信服务的自动化、标准化、规范化。信息编辑不再需要人工干预,信息发布摒弃了原有的GPRS通信、GSMModem通信、运营商提供短信发布平台等方式,基于Web Service技术直接接入电信短信网关,实现了气象预警信息的高效发布,提高了气象服务的整体质量和效率。     

采用SilviScan-3TM研究木材性质的方法及其在气候变化研究中的应用

系统介绍了利用SilviScan-3TM测量细胞结构、木材密度、微纤丝角和划分年轮界线的方法,并以祁连山青海云杉为例,分析青海云杉6个木材性质参数(年轮细胞直径、年轮细胞壁厚、年轮宽度、年轮密度、年轮微纤丝角、年轮弹性模量)与气候因子的关系,以期为利用多个树轮参数研究气候提供参考。结果表明:6个木材性质参数与月平均气温和月降水量都有显著相关的月份,但显著相关的时间段不同,并且微纤丝角和细胞结构参数中包含的气候信息强于常用的年轮宽度和年轮密度。SilviScan-3TM测量木材性质参数的优越性体现在:测量精度高、速度快,能在同一个试样上测量多个参数并能精确定年。     

一次致雹强风暴的多普勒雷达特征分析

利用NCEP再分析资料和北京、天津的多普勒天气雷达产品对2007年7月9日华北中部地区一次伴有短时暴雨、局地冰雹和短时大风等强对流天气过程进行分析研究。分析表明,此次天气过程发生前高空转为前倾槽,并具有较强的不稳定层结;近地层的风切变线是雷暴生成的条件。物理量诊断分析表明：降水前水汽辐合区已从近地层扩展到850 hPa,但比较浅薄;低层辐合、高层辐散的配置加强了垂直上升运动;强对流天气发生区域处于垂直上升运动最强的区域内。多普勒天气雷达产品分析表明：致雹风暴具有中气旋特征和类似强降水超级单体的性质;路径预报的准确率与雷暴的总数目和移动异向性有关,雷暴的实际移向角度与雷达的路径预报相比存在明显偏差,总体偏差在29～67°之间,但路径预报产品仍对天气预报具有一定指示性;风廓线产品中3-7 km高度内垂直风切变矢量随高度呈顺时针旋转,在这种有利的条件下风暴有可能发展成强降水超级单体。     

基于水质类型的TM图像水体信息提取

通过对一般水体、富营养化水体和严重污染水体与山体阴影在TM各波段图像上的亮度值进行分析比较可知:一般水体在TM4图像上的亮度值小于TM3波段的,而山体阴影则相反;由于富营养化水体中的浮游植物在TM4波段具有强反射特征,严重污染水体对可见光具有强吸收作用,造成了这两类水体在TM4图像上的亮度值大于TM3波段的,因而无法通...